The Buffalo Bills have fared well against the Miami Dolphins over the past few seasons, but they find themselves as five-point road underdogs ahead of the latest chapter of their AFC East rivalry on Thursday Night Football. The Bills have won four of their last five meetings with the Dolphins both straight-up and against the spread. Buffalo picked up its third straight victory in the series with a 29-10 win in the teams' first meeting of the year as 1.5-point home favorites back in Week 2.
Buffalo is coming off a tough 17-13 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last week as a two-point home favorite. The Bills led 13-3 going into the fourth quarter but surrendered two rushing touchdowns to the Chiefs within a five-minute span and could not get their offense going again. Buffalo went for it on fourth-and-10 at the Kansas City 15-yard line with about 2:30 left rather than kicking a field goal that would have covered the spread for bettors who grabbed an earlier number when the Chiefs were still favored. Buffalo is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games as a road underdog, with wins at Chicago and Detroit earlier this season.
The Dolphins lost to the Lions on the road 20-16 in Week 10, with the closing betting lines showing the Dolphins as three-point road underdogs. They lost more than the game though, as starting left tackle Branden Albert suffered a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee and will miss the rest of the season. That is a huge concern for the Dolphins, with quarterback Ryan Tannehill playing through shoulder and ankle injuries. The Dolphins will need to figure out a way to adequately protect Tannehill without Albert in the lineup, especially against a Bills defense that leads the league with 34 sacks.
The Bills and Dolphins have gone under the total in seven of their last nine meetings, and a few more trends also favor a low-scoring game. The under is 3-1 in the last four games in which the Bills have been road underdogs and in the past four in which the Dolphins have been home favorites. The under is also 6-3 in Miami’s last nine home games against AFC East opponents.