Week 15 DFS Values and Picks: How ’Bout Them Cowboys?
With two games on Saturday and the normal run of primetime games, there are just 11 games on this week’s DFS main slate. Missing from the slate are some of fantasy’s heavy hitters, most notably the Saints, Rams, and Chiefs. The result is that only one game on the main slate has an over/under higher than 50 points, with no team projected by Vegas for more than 27 points. As of this writing, 4for4 projects the Steelers to be the highest-owned offense of the week on both sites.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
FanDuel
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800) at Colts
The name of the game on FanDuel is to jam in as many studs as possible, and Elliott tops this week’s value report. The only back on the main slate that can match Zeke’s workload is Saquon Barkley, but the Cowboys’ back is $600 cheaper. Elliott accounts for more than half of Dallas’ touches, and his usage in the passing game has made him immune to game script—since the Cowboys’ Week 8 bye, Zeke is averaging 7.5 targets per game, second among backs in that span behind only Christian McCaffrey. While Dallas is a road underdog, the spread is just three points, and Indianapolis ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to running backs when adjusted for strength of schedule.
BELLER: Week 15 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em
Eric Ebron ($6,500) vs. Cowboys
Ebron isn’t the cheapest tight end but his volume is similar to that of a WR1, while still almost $1,000 cheaper than this week's most expensive player at the position. In seven games without Jack Doyle this season, Ebron is averaging 5.7 catches for 61 yards on 10.6 targets, compared with 3.6 catches for 46 yards on 4.4 targets when Doyle plays. With T.Y. Hilton questionable for Sunday, the Colts’ tight end could see an uptick in usage. Even if he doesn’t, the Cowboys defense is one that filters fantasy points to tight ends—Dallas ranks eighth in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, but is 22nd against tight ends.
DraftKings
Joe Mixon ($6,100) vs. Oakland
The Bengals have been nothing short of abysmal lately, and Mixon’s usage has flown a bit under the radar because of that. Still, he’s everything we expect from a workhorse back. His 45% team touch share over the last six weeks ranks fifth among all players and he has exceeded 20 touches in two of three games with Jeff Driskel under center. Despite that workload, there are still seven backs on this abbreviated slate priced higher than Mixon. This week, Cincinnati is a home favorite with a Vegas projection of 24.5 points, the Bengals’ highest implied total since their bye, and a respectable projection on a slate where no team is expected to score more than 27 points. Oakland is especially vulnerable through the air but, Mixon has seen at least six targets in two of his games with Driskel. No matter how Cincinnati moves the ball, there should be plenty of goal-line opportunities for Mixon against this defense.
BELLER: Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings
Dak Prescott ($5,500) at Colts
Since the Cowboys acquired Amari Cooper, only seven quarterback are averaging more DraftKings points per game than Prescott (minimum four games), but he’s priced as the QB12 on the main slate. Three of the quarterbacks averaging more points per game in that span aren’t even on the main slate. With the Cowboys passing more than they did in the first half of the season, Dak has accounted for more than 70% of his team’s yards and 80% of their touchdowns over the last six weeks. The matchup is ripe for the Cowboys’ signal caller to continue his hot streak against a Colts defense ranked 17th in schedule-adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks.
