UFC Fight Night: Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker - MMA Bets, Picks, Predictions

A light heavyweight showdown featuring two of the division's dominating veterans headlines this main card.

Author:
Casey Olson
Publish date:
Oct 1, 2021

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker

#UFCVegas38 MMA Betting Preview

After an amazing main event last weekend at UFC 266, we got another firefight on our hands in this weekend’s main event as well. The UFC Fight Night main event features two of the most explosive light heavyweights you will see, as #5 Thiago Santos (21-9) takes on #10 Johnny Walker (18-5) in a fight that will be highly unlikely to make the final bell. This fight sits atop a stacked 13-fight card, where oddsmakers see the large majority of these matchups ending inside the distance.

The event will take place in Las Vegas, back at the UFC APEX, with the prelims kicking off at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 7 p.m. ET. The entire card will be live on ESPN+.

With predictions going 11-2 last week and bets hitting 73% over the last couple of cards, let’s keep it rolling. Time to dive in.

EVENT DETAILS

DATE: SATURDAY 10/02/21
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
# of MATCHES: 13

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MAIN CARD HOT TAKES, PREDICTIONS & BETS

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT (205 LBS): #5 THIAGO SANTOS (21-9) VS #10 JOHNNY WALKER (18-5)

So we got one guy with a sledgehammer tattooed across his chest, taking on the other who throws them nonstop. There is absolutely no chance this fight goes 25 minutes. Santos will look to get back on track after losing three straight, but you have to consider who those were against. Those being Jon Jones via a very close split decision, The next title contender Glover Teixeira in a fight where Santos dropped Teixeira before getting caught in a sub, and lastly versus Aleksandar Rakic, in a fight where both seemed flat, yet Santos outlanded him 49-36 and ultimately it wasn’t enough for the judges.

Walker, on the other hand, could very easily be riding a three-fight skid of his own. Walker was knocked out in just over two minutes against Corey Anderson, followed that up with a clear decision loss to Nikita Krylov, and then most recently got dropped twice very quickly by Ryan Spann, but Spann’s poor fight IQ in the moment led to him shooting for a takedown and Walker took advantage landing some nasty elbows which dropped and eventually finished Spann himself.

Win or lose, looking at a combined 53 pro fights from these two, 83% of their fights have ended inside the distance, with Walker’s average fight time just over five minutes and Santos' around the eight-minute mark. Santos will be the more composed fighter of the two in there and make his move when the opening arises, compared to Walker, who will come forward guns blazing, looking to hurt Santos as quickly and flashy as possible. This style will force Santos to either defend or counter attack very early in this fight, and as chinny as Walker can be, I do like Santos’ chances with the TKO/KO prop.

Prediction: Thiago Santos

Bet: Santos (look via TKO/KO +105)

Bet: Santos/Walker Fight to start round 3: NO -122 (As an alternative, the UNDER 1.5 rounds at -120)

MIDDLEWEIGHT (185 LBS): #14 KEVIN HOLLAND (21-7) VS KYLE DAUKAUS (10-2)

With five straight wins inside the calendar year, 2020’s fighter of the year, Kevin Holland looks to bounce back after starting his 2021 with two straight losses against two of the UFC’s best grapplers in Brunson and Vettori. After the Vettori fight, Holland packed things up and trained grappling with former UFC titleholder Johny Hendricks at his gym and spent some time with Daniel Cormier.

We know what we will see here. Holland is looking to keep this one standing while Daukaus will look to execute some takedowns and control as he has in three of his four UFC fights. Holland’s mental presence alone in there will be something new for Daukaus, and I suspect some mind games coupled with the more superior striking should give the edge to Holland, and he'll utilize his five-inch reach advantage as he keeps control of the distance avoiding the takedown attempts from Daukaus.

Prediction: Kevin Holland

WELTERWEIGHT (170 LBS): NIKO PRICE (14-5) VS ALEX OLIVEIRA (22-10-1)

With like 17 combined children between these two, you better believe they are going to get after it, looking to score a fight of the night bonus come Saturday night. They got mouths to feed and money on the line. Price didn’t fight too long ago, dropping an exciting back and forth fight to Michel Pereira, who looked massive compared to Price, though Price hung in there and almost stole the fight by the final bell. His grittiness and ability to weather the storm and turn fights into his favor are like no other. When he gets backed into a corner, he flips a switch and turns things in his favor time and time again. On the other hand, Oliveira tends to fade and is quick to tap when locked into a sub, especially during his recent outings. His gas tank is suspect, and after going just 2-5 in his last seven, it's tough to back the "Brazilian Cowboy" against an explosive fighter like Niko Price.

Prediction: Niko Price

Bet: Price -140

MIDDLEWEIGHT (185 LBS): #13 MISHA CIRKUNOV (15-6) VS KRZYSZTOF JOTKO (22-5)

Cirkunov at 185lbs will be interesting here. Let's see how the weight cut affects him this fight week. If all goes well, he should be massive against Jotko, who’s one of the smaller middleweights. Cirkunov’s losses recently have all come against big finishers, and I wouldn’t consider Jotko a name that fits that category. Jotko’s style is typically to win rounds and play it safe while just doing more than his opponents. Almost 70% of his wins are via decision, and if he looks to do more of the same here against Cirkunov, it will give Cirkunov a full 15 minutes to close and find a submission along the way. I may consider this +300 sub prop as well after a review of weigh-ins.

Prediction: Misha Cirkunov

Bet: Cirkunov +135

WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT (135 LBS): #3 ASPEN LADD (9-1) VS #11 MACY CHIASSON (7-1)

It’s been almost two years since we’ve seen Aspen Ladd, and her long-awaited return has been a long road after surgery on a pair of torn knee ligaments. As she was anxious to get back in there, her coach, Jim West, kept her at bay and was instrumental in keeping her patient while going through the recovery process. Once ready, the best available opponent was Saturday night’s foe, Macy Chiasson. Chiasson will have a substantial height and reach advantage over Ladd, and it will be interesting to see if she can utilize it better than we’ve seen from her in the past. Ladd’s ability to trade and pounce for the takedowns has proven successful for her, and I could see a similar game plan against the much bigger Chiasson in this matchup. Ladd will want to land takedowns and control from the top as much as possible to avoid getting picked apart by the six-inch reach disadvantage versus Chiasson.

Prediction: Aspen Ladd

LIGHTWEIGHT (155 LBS): ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ (12-4) VS MIKE BREEDEN (10-3)

Breeden jumps in here on short notice to face Hernandez after Leonardo Santos withdrew from the fight due to personal issues. Breeden makes his UFC debut, and oddsmakers see him as a hefty underdog. Breeden is game on the feet and historically durable, but I'm not seeing him at this level. Hernandez should have his way, and it's almost a loss if he doesn't get the finish. I could see this ending with Hernandez on top, pouring some ground and pound with the ref, eventually calling it off. Let's see how this goes.

Prediction: Alexander Hernandez