Hello darkness my old friend, variance came for me again. We mentioned that it might at the end of the intro to Week 5 (our first positive week) and it most certainly did. Not in a big way, but the composite did finish 11 games under .500.
We’re middle of the road when compared to some other notable models (lines quoted against the composite may differ from the ones we use).
Our composite does not use home field advantage this year and that interestingly paid dividends in a small sample size of straight up games with Andrew Percival’s Metric Consensus.
And so we soldier on through the season hoping the odds return to our favor.
Last week: 25-36-0 (41%)
Season: 121-142-3 (46%)
Composite Best Bets
The process behind the picks is briefly explained in my Week 1 column. Most of the time, the computer spits out something within one or two points of the real line (and at that point, sharp plays and whale plays are what’s moving the line anyway). But if the computer gives something more than three points, it’s worth a second look.
-Georgia Tech (-3.5) over Duke
-Wisconsin (-10) over Illinois
-Oregon State (-3.5) over Washington State
-South Alabama (-3.5) over Texas State
-Notre Dame (PK) over Virginia Tech
-Stanford (+13) over Arizona State
-Akron (+14.5) over Bowling Green
-SMU (-13.5) over Navy
-Boise State (+6) over BYU
-Buffalo (+5.5) over Kent State
-Wyoming (+6) over Air Force
-Texas A&M (+18) over Alabama
The Big Dogs
-Maryland (+21) over Ohio State
-Vanderbilt (+39) over Florida
-Middle Tennessee (+19.5) over Liberty
-North Texas (+19) over Missouri
Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter: SI.com/newsletters