NFL Week 7 Betting Preview: Early Line Movement and Odds Tracking
After six weeks of NFL action, sports bettors continue to witness underdogs holding the edge in the wagering outcome with a 50-42 mark (56%) Against The Spread (ATS).
Week 7 begins with a primetime showdown between the Broncos and Browns on Thursday Night Football. The Browns are currently a 3.5-point home favorite and the total sits at 42.5, according to the odds at SI Sportsbook.
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Let’s take an early look-ahead at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention, resulting in noticeable line moves on the weekend slate.
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
NFL Week 7 Games ‘On The Move’
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
- Moneyline: Atlanta (-138) | Miami (+115)
- Spread: ATL -2.5 (-110) | MIA +2.5 (-110)
- Total: 47.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: 47.5 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 24, 2021 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Bettors are strongly investing that Matt Ryan and the Falcons will have no issue with a struggling Dolphins squad trending in the wrong direction after suffering five consecutive losses following its road upset of the Patriots in Week 1.
This game opened in August with Miami as 3.5-point home favorites, but has since been adjusted to the Falcons as 2.5-point road favorites at SI Sportsbook.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 6 after missing three weeks and looked sharp, throwing for a season-high 329 yards and two touchdowns in London against the Jaguars. However, Tagovailoa’s efforts could not prevent a third straight ATS loss as Jacksonville earned its first straight-up (SU) win of the season.
This a tricky game for bettors as Atlanta, despite covering the one time it has been less than field goal favorites this season (versus the Jets), rank 31st in points allowed per game at 29.6. The Dolphins' defense does not fare much better, ranking just ahead of the Falcons at 29.5 points allowed per game (29th).The difference in this game could come down to the return of star Falcons wideout Calvin Ridley (personal) against a porous Miami pass defense that has surrendered a staggering 13 passing touchdowns.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 59% of money on Atlanta
- Line Move: Miami -3.5 to Atlanta -2.5
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- ATL: 2-3 ATS (Home: 1-2 ATS, Away: 1-1 ATS)
- MIA: 2-4 ATS (Home: 0-2 ATS, Away: 2-2 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- ATL: 7-9 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)
- MIA: 11-5 ATS (Home: 7-1 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Photo credit: Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
- Moneyline: Carolina (-154) | New York (+130)
- Spread: CAR -3 (-110) | NYG +3 (-110)
- Total: 43 – Over (-110) | Under 43 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 24, 2021 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
We have witnessed a complete flip of favorites involving the Panthers in Week 7 heading into New Jersey to take on Daniel Jones and the Giants.
New York, who has been outscored 82-31 in the last two weeks against the Rams and Cowboys, is 0-3 SU and ATS at home this season. The Giants are just 3-8 ATS at MetLife Stadium over their last 11 home contests dating to last season.
Early wagering opened with the Giants as a 3-point favorite, but has moved to the Panthers as 3-point road favorites at SI Sportsbook. The Giants allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game (137.2), so expect plenty of Chuba Hubbard. He's averaging 3.9 yards per rush filling in for Christian McCaffrey (hamstring).
Pro money is wagering that Carolina will get back on track after three consecutive SU and ATS losses to the Vikings, Eagles and Cowboys. The Panthers have been road warriors as of late, posting an 8-2 ATS mark over their last 10 road games.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 76% of money on Carolina
- Line Move: Giants -3 to Panthers -3
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- CAR: 3-3 ATS (Home: 2-2 ATS, Away: 1-1 ATS)
- NYG: 2-4 ATS (Home: 0-3 ATS, Away: 2-1 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- CAR: 9-7 ATS (Home: 2-6 ATS, Away: 7-1 ATS)
- NYG: 9-7 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 6-2 ATS)
Ken Blaze/USA TODAY Sports
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals
- Moneyline: Houston (+850) | Arizona (-1600)
- Spread: HOU +18 (-110) | ARZ -18 (-110)
- Total: 47.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: 47.5 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 24, 2021 | 4:25 p.m. ET | Fox
Bettors will pay a steep price to invest in the Cardinals, the only undefeated team.
Arizona, who is 5-1 ATS, will be looking to move above .500 mark at home (1-1 ATS) after posting a perfect 4-0 ATS record on the road. Oddsmakers have witnessed strong steam on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals at SI Sportsbook, forcing Arizona to become the second-biggest favorite we have seen in 2021. Buffalo blanked these same Texans, 40-0, as 19-point favorites earlier this season.
The line move of the Cardinals as an early 10.5-point home favorite has moved through the prime wagering numbers of 14 and 17 and is now displaying Arizona as an 18-point home favorite. The Cardinals, allowing the second-fewest points per game (18.2), will face an inept Houston offense that ranks 31st in points scored (15.3).
On the flip side, Arizona has scored 31-plus points five times and is facing a Texans defense that tied for the sixth-worst mark by allowing 28.7 points per game.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 67% of money on Arizona
- Line Move: Arizona -10.5 to Arizona -18
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- HOU: 3-3 ATS (Home: 2-1 ATS, Away: 1-2 ATS)
- ARZ: 5-1 ATS (Home: 1-1 ATS, Away: 4-0 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- HOU: 6-10 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)
- ARZ: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers
- Moneyline: Indianapolis (+188) | San Francisco (-188)
- Spread: IND +3.5 (-110) | SF -3.5 (-110)
- Total: 44 – Over: (-110) | Under: 44 (-110)
- Game Info: Oct. 24, 2021 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Sunday Night Football offers an intriguing matchup between the Colts and 49ers.
Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) is expected back under center for the 49ers, yet bettors are backing Carson Wentz and the Colts after an impressive 31-3 win over Houston last week. The 49ers have lost consecutive home games both SU and ATS to the Packers and Seahawks, and have burned bettors by posting a 1-4 ATS mark at SI Sportsbook.
Bettors believe the Colts will extend their successful road ATS mark as underdogs to three straight after covering the number against the Ravens (Week 5, +7.5) and Dolphins (Week 4, +2.5). Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has been unstoppable in the last three games, posting 441 total yards with five total touchdowns.
San Francisco, allowing 113.2 rushing yards per game, will need to find a way to slow Taylor down if it has any hopes of posting its first home ATS (0-2) cash for bettors.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Public Betting: 62% of money on Indianapolis
- Line Move: Indianapolis +6 to Indianapolis +3.5
2021 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- IND: 8-8 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
- SF: 1-4 ATS (Home: 0-2 ATS, Away: 1-2 ATS)
2020 AGAINST THE SPREAD RECORD
- IND: 11-5 ATS (Home: 7-1 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
- SF: 6-10 ATS (Home: 1-5 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS, Neutral: 0-2 ATS)
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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