Back to the Futures: Best Values at the NFL Midway Point
This is the second in a series of futures bets articles. Each week, I’ll examine the current odds and try to find the best values for your money. Again, what we are looking for is value, and that means we likely won’t be taking any current favorites.
Last week we examined Comeback Player of the Year.
For a value-pick, I recommended taking Joe Burrow at +650 on SI Sportsbook rather than the favorite, Dak Prescott at -350. One week later, and a game without Prescott, and the current odds at SI Sportsbook now have Joe Burrow at +500 and Prescott at -333.
The window is closing to get Burrow at good value, so if you’re feeling the sophomore QB, grab that future now.
And, if you like the Bengals... they were +275 last week to win the AFC North and currently they are +450.
Best Regular Season Record
The Cardinals were the favorites on SI Sportsbook at +300 last week, and after losing to a decimated Green Bay, they are now +500. I wouldn’t take this bet with both Kyler Murray and JJ Watt banged up, but if you like Arizona, now is the time to buy this ticket. The Tampa Bay Bucs are the new favorite at +450, and the Cowboys, Bills, and Rams are all at +500.
But hopefully you got the Cowboys last week. Here’s what we had one week ago:
I’m turning to the Cowboys at +900. When you look at the Cowboys’ schedule, it looks like their toughest matchups are already in the rearview mirror. They have a lot of games vs. the NFC Least...er… East...coming up, and I love this plus-money.
Thanks to Cooper Rush and the Dallas defense, the Cowboys proved they are a complete team. The window for value has closed, so only take this +500 if you’re a fan.
Coach of the Year
Here’s what I wrote last week:
Before the season started, I had my money on Brandon Staley. When I placed that bet, odds were +1300 (insert pat on the back here), but the line has moved significantly and Staley is the favorite at +400. If I could go back in time, I’d put my money on Kliff Kingsbury at +4500, but he’s at +600 today. So, I’m instead putting my money on Sean McVay at +1000.
Sean McVay is now +900 after another Rams win, a Cardinals loss, and the Von Miller acquisition. This one is still good value. Brandon Staley is no longer the favorite at +650, and the new frontrunner is Mike McCarthy +500.
I wouldn’t touch that with a 10-foot pole.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
Offensive Player of the Year
Well, a likely season-ending injury to Derrick Henry has flipped this contest on its ear. I cautioned last week that Henry wasn’t good value, though I certainly didn’t see this coming. Here’s what appeared in this article last week.
Derrick Henry is the current favorite at +300, and Kupp—mentioned above—is at +700, but the best value? Kyler Murray at +1200.
Kupp has now vaulted up the leaderboard, and as the current favorite, you are only getting +120. It could be your last chance for plus money,, but it’s not enough return for me. Kyler Murray remains in second place at +1200, and next in line are Josh Allen and Davante Adams at +1400. I still like Murray here, but now my eyes are turning toward the incredible value for Matt Stafford at +3000. If you like Kupp, how do you not also like Stafford? Stafford has looked phenomenal in McVay’s offense and I can see this team going all….the...way!
Speaking of the Derrick Henry injury:
The Colts are +750 on SI Sportsbook to take the AFC South, while the Titans are still heavily favored at -1613. Unless you’re Adrian Peterson’s mom, there’s no reason to take the Titans here. It could be your last chance to get good value for the Colts before they beat the Jets tonight in prime time.
Finally, oh, how the mighty have fallen...
The Kansas City Chiefs are now +500 to win the AFC title. If you’re a Chiefs fan, this is the first time you’ve seen any real value here. The Bills are favorites at +225, but I’m taking the Ravens at +500.
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