MLB 2022 Futures Betting Odds Breakdown: Dodgers, Astros Lead the Way
If you placed a futures bet on June 16, when the Braves lost 10-8 to the Red Sox and fell a season-high eight games back in the NL East, we tip our caps.
You saw something no one else was seeing and, well, enjoy that payout.
Atlanta, with the fewest wins of any postseason team, bested the Astros in six games to become the 2021 World Series champion.
No one expected the Braves to win the division when they fell 10 games behind the Mets in the loss column. The world believed the Brewers would vanquish them in the NLDS. Pundits picked the 106-win Dodgers to best Atlanta in the NLCS. The Astros entered the World Series as favorites and with home-field advantage.
But none of that mattered.
The Braves are champions for the first time since 1995, and the city of Atlanta can take a break from hearing about "28-3" for a bit.
With the 2021 season now complete, it's time to turn the page to 2022 and look at futures betting odds. The offseason is always a fun time to place a bet, and perhaps there are some teams whose odds seem too good to be true.
Let's analyze some of the favorites, the value plays and the long shots, and see if we can find some particularly intriguing odds.
Check the odds at SI Sportsbook
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
THE FAVORITES
There are two ways to view the Dodgers when it comes to futures betting.
1. They are the best team in baseball and it's never unwise to bet on the best team.
2. There is little value on betting the offseason favorite since the Dodgers' odds are going to be stagnant for much of the year.
No team in baseball can match the Dodgers' talent and depth, and they surely will add some capable pieces this offseason.
It all comes down to whether or not you want to take 5-1 odds in November.
The Astros seem to have been the American League's best team over the past seven years, and these odds have them as the AL's top team again.
The issue is the Astros may lose one of their best players in Carlos Correa, and there are other top teams in the American League that will improve.
These odds seems like ones to fade, although the Astros figure to win the division again since Oakland may fade and the Mariners have to prove they're for real.
If you believe Hal Steinbrenner will open his wallet this offseason, then these offer potentially tempting odds for bettors.
They already are one of the top teams in the American League, and their odds will improve if they add a big-ticket item (like Correa).
The flip side is this current group of Yankees seemingly can't get over the hump, and you may be investing more in the name than what you've seen.
But it's hard to not like 9-1 odds on a potential title team.
This is a very appealing ticket.
The Blue Jays were the best team to miss the playoffs and possibly—one could argue—better than both the Red Sox and Yankees.
Toronto has an electric lineup and a strong rotation. It needs to reinforce its bullpen, but the bats are so good that Toronto can win slugfests.
Potential Cy Young candidate Robbie Ray and second baseman Marcus Semien are both free agents, among others, and losing both would be a tough blow. The Blue Jays should look to retain both in hope of finally returning to the playoffs.
These are my favorite odds among the favorites.
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports
THE VALUE PLAYS
San Francisco Giants (+1300)
This is the easiest fade on the board.
The Giants won 107 games last year, the most in baseball. They were a terrific story and perhaps could have won it all had they bested the Dodgers.
It's hard to expect this team, which relied on better-than-expected seasons from veterans and won't have Buster Posey behind the plate, to come close to 107 wins.
That's not to say the Giants won't be good or can't make the playoffs, but regression is expected and the Padres should be better with Bob Melvin.
A wild card berth may be their way into the playoffs.
The defending champions should be better next year with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mike Soroka scheduled to return—provided Freddie Freeman re-signs.
There's one major reason to fade Atlanta: There hasn't been a repeat champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees, who won three straight titles.
Atlanta could also face stiff divisional competition from the Mets and Phillies, who should be active this offseason.
But then again, as we saw this year, these Braves are fighters.
The Brewers need to address their offense, but they have one of the best executives in baseball in David Stearns.
Milwaukee has the benefit of playing in a weak division—only the Cardinals are true playoff threats in 2022—and arguably has the best top three in any rotation.
It's not a bad idea to believe that investing in the Brewers at double-digits odds, when they have an easy path into the playoffs, could result in a strong payout.
As this year proved: The best team doesn't always win the World Series.
The Mets flopped in year one of the Steve Cohen era.
Their front office situation may be a mess right now, but Cohen has the desire and bankroll to make the Mets relevant each year.
The expectation is the Mets will spend to fix their anemic offense, and this team probably has the most talent in the NL East.
You can do worse than 18-1 odds on a team that could be top five in payroll, and features the game's best pitcher in Jacob deGrom.
Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports
THE LONG SHOTS
Philadelphia Phillies (+3000)
The Phillies are similar to the Mets.
They have strong talent and their GM is known for spending and winning.
This team needs to reinforce its bullpen and revamp its lineup, but GM Dave Dombrowski has won everywhere he's gone in his career.
The Phillies provide a better payout now than they might once the offseason is complete and Dombrowski begins his retooling, so these odds are intriguing. The Phillies could be a fit for one of the top shortstops and perhaps closer Raisel Iglesias.
It's not out of the realm of possibilities that the Phillies could win the NL East.
Detroit Tigers (+4500)
If you're looking for a deep long shot that perhaps has chance, take a look at the Tigers—and, yes, we're as stunned we are writing this as you are reading it.
Detroit finished third in the AL Central with a 77-85 record in A.J. Hinch's first year guiding the team, and played quite well after a slow start. Hinch is a good manager, and it's possible the Tigers could make a big push for his former shortstop, Correa.
The Tigers probably aren't going to pass the White Sox, but we're not expecting that at 45-1 odds. When surveying the remainder of the field, it seems the Tigers could be a team on the rise compared to say the Athletics (+4000) and Guardians (+6000). Those two teams could be shipping off talent instead of making a push like Detroit.
We offer our apologies to the Mariners. It's nothing personal, but we'd like to see the Mariners ACTUALLY make the playoffs once before backing them.
Check the odds at SI Sportsbook
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