Week 10 of the 2021 NFL season kicks off Thursday night when the Dolphins play host to the Ravens in an AFC showdown.
The Dolphins snapped a seven-game losing streak last week when they beat Houston, 17-9, as 4-point home favorites. Miami, which is 1-6 Against The Spread (ATS) over its last six games, is just 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season.
The Ravens avoided a second straight home loss last week when they came from behind to defeat Minnesota, 34-31 in overtime. Baltimore, which is 3-5 ATS this season, is 0-4 ATS when favorites of six-plus points over that span.
- Spread: Baltimore Ravens -7.5 (-110) | Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baltimore (-410) | Miami (+310)
- Total: 46.5 — Over (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
- SI Sportsbook (Spread) Betting Percentages: BAL 63% | MIA 37%
- Game Info: Nov. 11, 2021 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NFL Network
The line has held steady since its opening in favor of Baltimore (6-2, SU; 3-5 ATS) as a 7.5-point road favorite over Miami at SI Sportsbook. The total, which opened at 47.5, has dropped down to 46.5.
The Dolphins (2-7 SU; 3-6 ATS), who have averaged the fifth-fewest points per game this season (17.2), will now face a Ravens defense which will likely force Miami to become one dimensional. Baltimore, who has surrendered the fifth-fewest rushing yards (91.8) per game this season to opposing offenses, will look to force Miami to lean heavily on its inconsistent passing game.
Miami has struggled at Hard Rock Stadium, with only one Straight-Up (SU) win coming against Houston (1-8) in four contests—which has resulted in a 1-3 ATS mark. The Dolphins, who were 7-1 ATS at home last season, have been a complete disappointment for bettors this season since upsetting New England back in Week 1—posting a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS mark. On the flip side, the Ravens are 1-2 ATS away from M&T Bank Stadium this season. In an expanded view, Baltimore is 5-6 ATS (45%) in their last 11 regular season road games.
In Week 10, the Dolphins are expected to be rolling out quarterback Jacoby Brissett under center. Brissett started in place of Tua Tagovailoa (finger) in last week’s win over the Texans. Tagovailoa is a game-time decision for Thursday night, and fantasy managers should proceed with the belief that the veteran Brissett will be guiding the Miami offensive attack. The veteran signal-caller, who is 24-31 as a starter in the NFL, has proven in his four starts this season he is merely a game manager—evidenced by never topping 275 passing yards this season.
The top receiving weapon in the Miami aerial game is clearly rookie Jaylen Waddle. The former Alabama standout leads the club in targets (78) and receptions (56) as well tied for the club lead in receiving touchdowns (3). According to oddsmakers, Waddle projects to have the most receptions as well as the most receiving yards of any player on Thursday night.
Over the last four games, the emerging talent has witnessed increased volume in the passing game drawing double-digit targets in three of those contests. Against a banged-up Ravens defense Waddle looks attractive to surpass his 60.5 receiving yards betting projection—a number he has exceeded in three of his last four games. However, I have the projection set at 61.3 which leaves very little expected value in this market.
A deeper dive reveals that Baltimore’s secondary has struggled with opposing elite offensive weapons thus far this season. Justin Jefferson (69), Ja’Marr Chase (201), Michael Pittman (89), Kalif Raymond (68), Travis Kelce (109) and Darren Waller (105) have all posted production that is over the current betting number being offered by oddsmakers. Many of those players are the top passing option for their respective club which also matches Waddle's current role with Miami.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens possess solid offensive production from star quarterback Lamar Jackson as well as dynamic wideout Marquise Brown and dependable tight end Mark Andrews. Jackson, despite leading the Ravens to a 6-2 SU mark over eight games, actually has more multiple interception games (3) than multiple passing touchdown efforts (2).
Jackson will now be facing a Dolphins defense that has surrendered the sixth most points per game this season (26.9). Miami has allowed multiple passing touchdowns to Matt Ryan (2), Tom Brady (5), Carson Wentz (2), Derek Carr (2) and Josh Allen (2).
Jackson is a solid investment to surpass his passing touchdown betting market of 1.5 against a Miami secondary that struggles to defend the pass, ranking third-worst in passing yards per game (280.9).
Oddsmakers are projecting that Andrews will only have a moderate impact against the Dolphins as SI Sportsbook has his reception betting market set at 3.5. My projections have the reliable tight end, who has gone over this posted number in six of eight games this season, surpassing his betting proposition number in Week 10. Over the last two games, Andrews has drawn a team-high 17 targets. Backing Andrews over 3.5 receptions on Thursday night is a solid investment.
Frankie's Thursday Night Football Betting Advice
From a side perspective, the Ravens are just 1-6 ATS over their last seven games when they are offered as a betting favorite by oddsmakers. Investing in fading this trend will not be easy, but several factors land us on backing Baltimore.
Miami currently ranks 32nd in rushing yards (75.1 yards per game) and will be facing the Ravens' fifth-best run defense (91.8 yards per game). Enormous edge to Baltimore. The Ravens will have the best player on the field in Jackson piloting the league’s top-ranked offense in total yards (427.9 yards per game) facing a Miami defensive unit that is allowing the third-most total yards (391.9 yards per game). This lands us to conclude that Baltimore will have a tremendous advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Time to lay the wood and buy the hook.
BET: Baltimore -7 (-120)
Lamar Jackson, QB Ravens: Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes
Mark Andrews, TE Ravens: Over 3.5 Receptions
- The Baltimore Ravens are 1-6 ATS over their last seven games as a favorite
- The Miami Dolphins are 1-5 ATS over their last six games in 2021
SI BET REVIEW
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 5-4 ATS / Props 7-8 +1.25 units
2021 SI Betting NFL Football YTD: 22-17 ATS & Props +6.05 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.