NFL Week 10 Betting Recap: Bad Beats and Big Payouts
About the only thing worse than Teddy Bridgewater's "tackle attempt" may have been the offensive showings by the Falcons and the Seahawks.
We hope you faded those two offenses (but we're guessing you didn't).
On the positive side: Jakobi Meyers finally caught a touchdown pass! Do you believe in miracles?!?! It actually happened. World peace will soon follow.
Let's get to the good, the bad and the ugly from Week 10 betting.
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Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
THE GOOD
HE FINALLY DID IT
Meyers had gone 38 games without tallying a receiving touchdown in his career. He had thrown two touchdown passes, but those don't count for prop bets.
Sunday, our national crisis finally ended.
Meyers made a defender miss and finally found the end zone to give him his first career receiving score.
Despite his career trends, Meyers only had +210 odds on an anytime touchdown prop. However, he cashed +1100 odds on scoring the last touchdown.
THE LATE COVER
The Titans hosted the Saints as three-point favorites.
Tennessee took an 11-point lead with 10:06 left and the Saints cut it to an eight-point deficit with 5:35 to go. New Orleans got the ball back, and Trevor Siemian found Marquez Callaway for a 15-yard strike to make it a two-point game.
The Saints failed to convert, and the Titans won by two points.
The hero for those who backed the Saints' +2 is kicker Brian Johnson, who missed two extra points. Those misses forced the Saints to go for two and lose like they did.
FADING TANNEHILL AND THE TITANS
Ryan Tannehill leads the AFC's top team, but he's not producing like in his previous years with the Titans. Sunday's matchup against a tough Saints defense seemed like a prime spot to fade Tannehill, especially with Julio Jones sidelined.
The under cashed on Tannehill's prop bets for rushing yards, passing yards, passing touchdowns and passing completions.
A.J. Brown and Jeremy McNichols each fell short of their receptions/receiving yards props, combining for just two catches for 17 yards.
BUYING THE BOUNCEBACK
CeeDee Lamb disappointed in Dallas' loss to Denver, catching two passes for 13 yards. If you invested in the bounceback, you enjoyed a nice day.
Lamb caught six passes for 94 yards and two touchdowns, including the first score. That first score had +850 odds, and his anytime touchdown props had +115 odds.
It's always fun when the process leads to good results.
HE'S A MONSTER
Jonathan Taylor is unstoppable—and keeps earning bettors money.
Taylor cashed in several bets Sunday in a smash spot against Jacksonville. He finished with 126 total yards and one touchdown.
Taylor hit the over on his rushing yards, combined rushing/receiving yards, longest run (on the first rush!), receptions and anytime touchdown prop.
In Jonathan Taylor We Trust!
THE FINAL RUSH
Dalvin Cook had a rushing yards prop of 91.5, which seemed like a reachable total considering he was facing a terrible Chargers rushing defense.
Cook had 90 yards with less than three minutes to go, and the Vikings faced a 4th-and-2 at the Chargers' 36-yard line. He rushed for four yards.
His total: 94 rushing yards.
Had it the whole way.
CASHING THOSE TOUCHDOWN PROPS
Here are some of the notable touchdown prop bets that cashed:
• Bills RB Matt Breida (yes, he's still around) first touchdown: +4000
• Washington WR DeAndre Carter first/anytime touchdown: +3300/+520
• Vikings TE Tyler Conklin first/anytime touchdown: +1850/+260
• Browns TE Austin Hooper first/anytime touchdown: +1850/+350
• Saints WR Tre'Quan Smith first/anytime touchdown: +1750/+320
• Titans TE MyCole Pruitt anytime touchdown: +590
Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
THE BAD
CARSON DOESN'T DELIVER
Carson Wentz seemed like a safe player to back at home against the Jaguars (some of us may have even streamed him with Kyler Murray sidelined).
Oh, no.
Wentz, frankly, had a miserable day in Indianapolis' 23-17 win. He threw for 180 yards with no touchdowns, and had -1 rushing yards.
The under hit on each of these props: rushing yards, passing yards, passing touchdowns and completions.
Maybe the Jaguars' defense deserves some more respect following its last two showings against the Bills and Colts.
THE LATE COVER—AND THE LATE OVER
We previously discussed New Orleans covering with that late drive against the Titans, but that touchdown also pushed the game pass the 42.5 projection.
Considering those team's offensive issues, the under seemed a decent bet, and the teams combined for just 32 points entering the four quarter.
A 12-point final stanza pushed the game to the over.
IT'S THE QUARTERBACK
We're not that far away from the point where—and maybe we're already there—we all say, "Ya know, Sean McVay somehow took Jared Goff to a Super Bowl."
Goff had a horrendous day in Pittsburgh in the 16-16 tie, throwing for just 114 yards, and it affected the Lions' only two appealing betting and fantasy options.
T.J. Hockenson had receptions/receiving props of 4.5 catches for 53.5 yards. D'Andre Swift's line had 5.5 catches for 40.5 yards.
Hockenson somehow posted a goose egg on one target. One. (This writer may or may not have started him over James Robinson and lost because of it)
Swift had three catches for five yards.
U-G-L-Y.
NO GARBAGE TIME
The Cowboys-Falcons game had a total touchdowns prop of 6.5 and an over of 55.
Dallas led 36-3 at the half, putting the over well within reach.
Dak Prescott scored the game's sixth touchdown on a four-yard scramble with 38 seconds left in the third quarter that made it 43-3.
Plenty of garbage time production ahead!
Wrong.
Neither team scored in the fourth, and that's mainly on the Falcons (whom we will dissect in the ugly section).
What good is a blowout if not for garbage time?
CRASHING TO EARTH
Mike Williams fooled us all.
The inconsistent wide receiver played like a stud to start the season, perhaps showing signs he could finally live up to his top-10 draft status.
Well, Williams has cratered and is borderline unplayable in fantasy right now.
He burned bettors yesterday on a nice boosted parlay with +300 odds—up from +250—that he would top 61.5 yards against a generous Vikings' defense, while Michael Pittman Jr. would also top 64.5 yards against the Jaguars.
Pittman did his part with 71 yards, but Williams finished with 33 yards. He barely finished with more than half of his prop.
Williams has 10 catches for 137 yards and no touchdowns over his last four games.
Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
THE UGLY
THE B STANDS FOR BUSINESSDECISION
We could dedicate a whole section to Bridgewater doing whatever THIS is.
But we're going to focus on how the Bridgewater-led Broncos couldn't even get the world a backdoor cover or top the touchdown total of 4.5.
The Eagles-Broncos had an over/under of 44.5. The final: Eagles 30, Broncos 13.
But the Broncos had soooo many chances to hit the over.
A 1st-and-goal at the 10-yard line in the third quarter resulted in a blocked field goal. A 1st-and-10 at the Eagles' 11-yard line led to another field goal.
The backdoor cover attempt, when there had already been four touchdowns, had the Broncos situated with a 1st-and-10 at the 13. Turnover on downs.
Oh, Teddy.
I'M SORRY, MS. JACKSON
Atlanta entered Sunday as the No. 7 seed in the NFC.
Let's just say the NFC division winners hope it stays that way.
Atlanta looked no part of a contender Sunday in its 43-3 loss, and they burned bettors Sunday by failing to cash most props (and show up).
It made sense to want action in a potential high-scoring game
If you bet the under on all these bets, then you're a wise individual. But we're guessing most people liked the over in quite a few of these.
No Falcons player reached the end zone, thus failing to cash all those bets, and here are some notable Falcons props that fell short:
• QB Matt Ryan: passing yards, passing touchdowns
• RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson: rushing yards, rushing/receiving yards, receptions
• RB Mike Davis: rushing yards, rushing/receiving yards
• TE Kyle Pitts: receiving yards, receptions
• WR Russell Gage: receiving yards
RUSSED HIM BACK
It's not a stretch to say that Geno Smith could have done that.
Russell Wilson, in his return, produced one of the worst games of his career. He was absolutely dreadful against the Packers in a 17-0 loss.
If you backed Wilson, DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett—or started any of them in fantasy—we offer our apologies.
Each of those players failed to cash most of their prop bets, although Wilson did cash the over with his rushing yards. Yay?
Wilson threw for 161 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions, while Metcalf and Lockett combined for 49 yards on five catches.
Metcalf, having seen enough, started a fight, got ejected and then attempt to re-enter, although he's no Bobby Valentine and the refs gave him the boot again.
We can't blame him for wanting to leave that game early.
This tri-state area resident has seen his fair share of bad football this year thanks to the Jets and Giants, and that Packers-Seahawks game was right up there.
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