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Week 12 Thanksgiving Player Props: Raiders vs. Cowboys

Analyzing the player props and odds to target in Thursday's Raiders-Cowboys clash.

The Raiders (5-5) head to Dallas to face the Cowboys (7-3) for the second game on Thanksgiving Day. Both teams are coming off losses, both recently lost to the suddenly-surging Chiefs and both need this win.

Check Thanksgiving Day NFL Lines at SI Sportsbook

Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys

  • Moneyline: Las Vegas (+275) | Dallas (-350)
  • Spread: Las Vegas +7.5 (-110) | Dallas -7.5 (-110)
  • Total: 50.5 -Over (-110) | Under (-110)
  • Game Info: Nov. 25, 2021 | 4:30 p.m. ET | Fox
Nov 21, 2021; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders tight end Foster Moreau (87) celebrates a second half touchdown with teammate Darren Waller (83) against the Cincinnati Bengals at Allegiant Stadium.

Las Vegas is on a three-game skid after losing to Cincinnati on Sunday. The Raiders average 22.3 points per game, but only 14.3 points across the last three (without Jon Gruden and Henry Ruggs.) They have fared better in road games, averaging 22.5 points per game.

The Cowboys, by contrast, are the third-highest scoring offense, despite being held to nine points by the Chiefs on Sunday. Dallas averages 29.3 points per game, and 22.7 points across the last three. Dallas is averaging 36 points per game at home.

As impressive as those numbers may sound, however, Dallas struggled Sunday without Amari Cooper. Cooper will miss Thursday’s game as well, and Dallas will also likely be without CeeDee Lamb, who exited Sunday’s game with a concussion. That leaves Michael Gallup, Noah Brown and Cedrick Wilson to pick up the slack.

Defensively, the Cowboys had a good showing Sunday, allowing only 19 points. The Cowboys’ defense has been improving all year and has allowed only 17.3 points per game across their last three contests, the eighth-best mark in the league.

The Cowboys are 31-21-1 on Thanksgiving.

Las Vegas, unfortunately, is trending in the opposite direction. It could not contain the Chiefs two weeks ago, allowing 41 points and five touchdowns to the reigning AFC champs. The Raiders have allowed 32 points per game across its last three contests.

YOWZA.

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Dallas is 8-2 Against The Spread (ATS) this season, and the Raiders are 4-6 ATS. Both teams have hit the over in exactly 50% of their games this year.

I trust the Cowboys to win this game, even without Cooper and Lamb, but I am not feeling strongly about their ability to cover. I like the under on the game total, as Dallas’s defense has been pretty stout while Vegas has been offensively anemic.

The Cowboys’ offense will be without key players, and Dak’s backup receivers won’t be able to pile on. I expect a lot of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard vs. a Raiders defense that has surrendered the sixth-most ground yards to opposing running backs.

Player Props to Target

Dalton Schultz anytime TD +138

Quite simply: Prescott doesn’t have a lot of options. Schultz saw eight targets and caught six of them for 53 yards against the Chiefs with Cooper sidelined. Schultz has played the third-most snaps among tight ends and has seen 59 targets. Las Vegas has allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends, tied for the second-most allowed.

Darren Waller under 70.5 receiving yards -120

Cowboys have allowed 61.6 yards per game to opposing tight ends this season, and 63 yards per game across the last four. Travis Kelce barely exceeded this mark with 74 yards last week, and this improving Dallas defense should be able to focus on eliminating Waller since he is the clear top target for Las Vegas.

Ezekiel Elliot over 64.5 rushing yards -118

Las Vegas has surrendered an average of 114 rushing yards per game across the last three contests, and Elliot has exceeded this mark in five of ten games. The Cowboys will lean on their run game. Pluss it really Thanksgiving if we don’t watch Zeke eat? 

Check the Latest NFL Lines at SI Sportsbook

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