Betting Roundtable: Which NFL Team Would You Bet to Have the Best Regular Season Record?
Things continue to be weird entering Week 11 of the NFL season.
Miami, Jacoby Brissett and a banged-up Tua Tagovailoa embarrassed Lamar Jackson and the Ravens when they couldn’t stage another double-digit comeback.
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Tom Brady, fresh off a bye week, was no match for Taylor Heinicke and a Washington Defense that lost Chase Young. Cam Newton tallied two touchdowns, while PJ Walker and Christian McCaffrey did the rest to stomp out the NFC West-leading Cardinals with no Kyler Murray. The Cardinals no longer hold the best record in the NFL.
Mac Jones and Bill Belichick sufficiently humiliated the Browns, 45-7.
Check Monday's Rams-49ers Odd at SI Sportsbook
I recommended in my futures piece last week taking Mac Jones for NFL Rookie of the Year at +350. Better yet, Frankie Taddeo suggested taking him in May for +1200. Well that ship has sailed, and Jones’s odds are now only +150.
So, that value has gone. But just like when the stock market dips, there is always a way to find value. In fact, it’s my favorite time to go shopping. Who doesn’t love a sale?!
I asked Sports Illustrated’s best betting analysts to show me their diamond hands. I gave them $100 virtual dollars and asked them this question: Which NFL team they would bet to finish with the best regular season record?
You can find those odds at SI Sportsbook here.
Here's today's roundtable:
SI Betting Writer Frank Taddeo's Take
I am going to back the Titans (+350). I am holding sizable investments on Tennessee to win the AFC South at +105, made the day Carson Wentz was injured during the preseason. The Titans, who were offered at 30/1 in August, still offer value at +350 despite losing Derrick Henry. Tennessee (8-2) will be favored in five of their remaining seven games. In look-ahead lines, the Titans have extremely favorable matchups with Houston twice, Jacksonville, San Francisco and Miami. In my opinion, that lands us at 13 wins at a minimum. They will be underdogs at New England, but will likely be a coin flip at Pittsburgh. I believe 13-4 or 14-3 is possible and would likely result in the best regular season record in 2021.
The Titans once again receive my monetary support.
Payout: $450
SI Betting Editor Matt Ehalt's Take:
I'm gonna chase the big payout here and go with the Ravens (+1600). I'm starting behind the 8 ball here since Baltimore is just 6-3, but that's why I'm getting +1600 odds. When analyzing their schedule, though, I don't see the clear "loss" the rest of the way. Their toughest remaining games are the Packers and Rams, but both are at home. I think they're the best team in the AFC North, and am not scared of those remaining games against the division foes. I like to chase upside with futures bets, and see upside here at +1600 compared to going with the more conservative options like the Packers or Titans at +350. The Rams at +700 are also appealing if you believe they'll beat Green Bay and Arizona.
Payout: $1700
SI Betting Editor Dave Scipione's Take
You might be tempted to go with the Packers, the favorites (+350) at 8-2, but you’d be wrong. Green Bay’s remaining schedule has some tough games, and ultimately the odds aren’t that great compared to the rest of the field. I’ll hammer the Bills at +1000. Buffalo sits at 6-3 and plays host to the Colts (win), travels to New Orleans (win), hosts the Patriots (win), travels to play Tampa Bay (toss-up), hosts the Panthers (win), travels to play New England (win), hosts the Falcons (win) and finishes the season hosting the J-E-T-S (W-I-N).
Mac Jones and the Patriots are not a playoff team, whatever the media wants to sell you. They might sneak into the playoffs, but I think Buffalo handles its business for the remainder of the season. A win against Tom Brady is where this bet needs a little help, but even if the Bills can’t pull that off, they have a lot of teams with bad/inexperienced quarterbacks left to play. If Joe Flacco screws this up for the final week of the season, so be it—but I’ll take a complete team like the Bills over any of the others, especially with +1000 odds.
Payout: $1100
SI Betting/Fantasy Writer Jen Piacenti's Take:
I am inserting a quote in my own article. What is wrong with you guys? The answer here is obviously the COWBOYS (+600). Did you see the thrashing they gave Atlanta? They needed that punch in the face from Denver, and now they will be unstoppable. Their defense looked every bit as dominant as their offense (which, by the way, now also boasts Michael Gallup who has returned from injury), and they will continue to roll over their competition.
They are already one game up on the Bucs, and only one win behind the Cardinals, Packers and Titans, who haven’t yet had their bye weeks.
The Cowboys still have four games ahead against the NFC Least, and I’m taking the +600 (though, full disclosure, I got it at +900 two weeks ago, too).
Payout: $700
MMQB/Sports Illustrated Staff Writer Conor Orr's Take:
I would take the Titans (+350) because, outside of matchups with the Steelers and Patriots, their remaining schedule is a cake walk. While this defense cannot sustain its otherworldly pace of creating game-altering turnovers, the offense is efficient enough to breeze by two matchups against the Texans, a game against the Jaguars, a tilt with the Dolphins and an intra-conference showdown with the 49ers. And, for those who rightfully argue that their defensive regression to the mean will equal losses, I will counter with this: The Titans have a relatively bad offensive success rate, with fewer than 47% of their offensive snaps ending in what we'd term a "successful play." That's in the realm of the Jets, Browns, Broncos and Eagles. I would guess that even without Derrick Henry that number corrects itself too, and even if Tennessee slips defensively, they'll cover for that by growing on offense.
Payout: $450
SI Fantasy Editor Craig Ellenport's Take:
While I don’t think they’re among the two best teams in their own conference, I’m not afraid to bank on the Cowboys at +600 to finish with the NFL’s best regular season record. I’ll give them wins in each of their four remaining games against the NFC Least. If they can split the remaining four games (on the road vs. Chiefs and Saints, home vs. Raiders and Cardinals), that puts the Boys at 13-4. I'll give them three of those four and say they finish 14-3. The Packers and Rams are both better, and one of those teams will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but their remaining regular season schedules are tougher.
Payout: $700
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