NFL Player Props and Odds for Week 14
After 13 weeks of trying to beat the SI Sportsbook with my player prop predictions, I am 31-32 while being -6.90 units on a $100 baseline of each investment.
Last week, I went 3-2 to regain a small piece of my lost bankroll. Unfortunately, a long pass that was bobbled and then dropped by Ja’Marr Chase led to him falling short of his prop total (63.5). Chase hasn’t gained over 20 yards on a catch since Week 8.
If I wager on the favorite, I lay the juice to win $100 (-115 betting line = 115 to win 100). On the underdog side, I wager $100 to win the extra profit (100 to win 150 with +150 betting line).
When reviewing all the props lines, I’m looking for flaws in pricing. I would expect most of my investments to come on the overside unless I see an overcorrection in a stat line.
Bet: More than 3.5 catches for Cole Beasley (-170)
Initially, I had my eyes set on over 41.5 yards receiving (-115) for Beasley. Unfortunately, his opportunity has been short in the last four games (2, 5, 5, 3 targets), leading to losing stats (2/15, 4/23, 5/46, 1/11) in all fantasy formats. When at his best, he had an active role in the Bills’ passing game (8/60, 11/98, 7/88/1, 10/110, 8/33). Beasley has gained only 8.6 yards per catch in 2021 (11.3 over the previous three seasons). A rib issue led to only 16% of the wide receiver snaps in Week 10. In his other five games over the past six weeks, Buffalo had him on the field for 67% of their plays as their WR3.
Tampa leads the NFL in scoring (377 points – 31.4 per game), and this game has the highest over/under (53.5) at SI Sportsbook. The Bucs rank 18th defending wide receivers (164/2,044/13 on 260 targets), with 15 different receivers catching a minimum of four passes.
Josh Allen has an over/under of 290.5 passing yards and 25.5 completions. Buffalo struggles to run the ball with their backs (223/954/8 – second-lowest rushing attempts while ranking 28th in rushing yards). The Bucs play well vs. the run, and they will close the passing window for Allen on many plays, leading to him trying to get the ball out quickly to his top slot receiver. Beasley has high odds, but he has averaged 4.8 catches over his previous 58 games.
Bet: More than 37.5 receiving yards for Marvin Jones Jr. (-115)
Over the past nine games, Jones gained 35 yards or fewer in six matchups (3/24, 1/25, 5/35, 3/21, 2/35, 2/11). His season started with three productive games (5/77/1, 6/55/1, 6/62) while posting his best outing in Week 6 (7/100/1). However, he only has 20 catches for 198 yards (9.8 yards per catch) on 35 targets over his last six starts. The Titans held him to one catch for 25 yards on six targets in Week 5.
Tennessee has the worst defense in the NFL against wide receivers (43.48 FPPG – 183/2,380/16 on 282 targets). Five offenses (ARI – 17/246/4, SEA – 19/326/2, NYJ – 15/264/2, KC – 24/296/2, NO – 21/234) gained over 200 yards from their wideouts. The Titans allowed 13.0 yards per catch to wide receivers and 26 wideouts gained at least 40 yards against them.
Jones continues to get WR1 snaps for the Jaguars while averaging 6.8 targets. He needs to up his catch rate (58.5), and Trevor Lawrence must throw the ball better (under 200 yards passing in four of their last five matchups – BUF, IND, SF, ATL, LAR). With four catches, Jones should be on the high side of his prop bet in Week 14.
Bet: More than 36.5 yards receiving Courtland Sutton (-115)
The Broncos have struggled to get Sutton the ball over the past five weeks (2/40, 1/9, 2/29, 2/17, 2/15). Over this span, he caught half of his 18 targets with two catches over 20 yards. Sutton flashed in three games (9/159, 7/120/1, 8/94/1) over the first six weeks. On the year, he averages 54 yards (69.5 in his best season in 2019).
Detroit fell to 13th in wide receiver defense (143/2,047/10 on 227 targets) after struggling with Justin Jefferson (11/182/1) and the Vikings’ wideouts (17/227/2) in Week 13. The Lions allow 14.3 yards per catch to wide receivers, but quarterbacks only average 31.75 passes against them. Seven wideouts (Deebo Samuel – 9/189/1, Davante Adams – 8/121, Darnell Mooney – 5/125, Justin Jefferson – 7/124, Cooper Kupp – 10/156/2, Darnell Mooney – 5/123, Justin Jefferson – 11/182/1) gained over 100 yards.
Denver wants to run the ball, so I don’t expect Teddy Bridgewater to be passing on a high number of plays. However, Sutton has the skill set to hit on a long play, and he should create mismatch problems for the Lions’ defense. His over/under for his longest catch is 18.5, which seems low and almost a layup in this matchup. Sutton leads the Broncos in wide receiver snaps (666 – on the field 85% of their plays). I’ll take a WR1 with big-play ability to the bank based on his low prop bet for yards (36.5).
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Bet: More than 59.5 yards receiving for Mike Evans (-115)
Based on stats, the Bucs’ passing matchup against Buffalo looks poor in Week 14. Tom Brady averages 314 yards while the Bills’ defense gives up only 175 passing yards. Over the past three games, quarterbacks have only attempted 53 passes vs. Buffalo (skewed by their weather game vs. New England, when the Patriots had just three pass attempts). The Bills lost their top CB, Tre’Davious White, in Week 12, leading to a void in their secondary over the final five weeks of the year. Buffalo’s success against quarterbacks has been helped by a favorable pass schedule (PIT, MIA, WAS, HOU, TEN, MIA, JAC, NYJ, IND, NO, NE).
Evans owns a size advantage (6-5, 230 pounds) over CBs Levi Wallace (6-0, 180), Taron Johnson (5-11, 190) and Dana Jackson (6-0, 190) while also not giving up an edge in speed. On the year, Evans averages 66 yards with a bump to 72 yards at home. His floor has been high over his past four starts in Tampa (5/75/2, 6/113/2, 6/76/3, 6/73/1).
I have Evans projected to catch seven passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him score the first touchdown for Tampa, awarding any lucky investor with a +875 betting line. Brady should look to take advantage of his size in the red zone and the goal line.
Bet: More than 73.5 receiving yards for Travis Kelce (-115)
The debate for Kelce’s player prop was between his catch total (-140 over 5.5) or his receiving yards. Both options look attractive based on his matchup. The Raiders slipped to 31st defending tight ends (73/813/8). Las Vegas allowed their eight touchdowns to tight ends over the past nine weeks. They’ve struggled to cover the position in five games (MIA – 10/86, LAC – 9/121/2, DEN – 12/120/1, KC – 9/120/1, WAS – 9/90/1).
Kelce has gained fewer than 75 yards in seven of his last nine contests. His best showing (8/119) over this span came against the Raiders. In addition, he has six catches or more in seven of 12 starts (once over the past five weeks). He only needs 75% of my projections (8/107/1) to pay off in the prop market.
In the Chiefs’ game this week, I’m taking the position that Patrick Mahomes regains the bounce in his passing step, and either Kelce or Tyreek Hill post an impact game.
QB Parlay
Each week, I look at passing touchdown lines for quarterbacks with the hopes of seeing a viable combo for a high-paying parley. This week, Dak Prescott (+165), Josh Allen (+160) and Patrick Mahomes (+140) have the feel of a winning play over 2.5 touchdowns each. A three-way parlay with the above odds would pay $1,554 on a $100 investment.
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