NFL Week 18 Betting Preview: Line Movement and Odds Tracking
First, congratulations to all fantasy football managers who won league championships. As those fantasy managers look to re-invest their winnings in sports wagers, be careful of Week 18 NFL wagering.
There are currently nine teams favored by at least seven points.
Why do I heed this warning? The answer lies in the numbers. Underdogs continue to hold an edge in the overall wagering outcome with a mark of 130-120-2 (52.0%).
As we have stressed here at SI Betting for months, if you are under the assumption that blindly backing NFL home teams is a profitable endeavor this season, your bankroll is likely in the red. Home teams are 120-133-3 (47.5%), while home favorites are an equally disappointing 70-81-3 (46.4%) Against The Spread (ATS).
Let's analyze the Week 18 lines on the move.
Check Week 18 NFL Lines at SI Sportsbook
NFL Week 18 Games ‘On The Move’
Jeff Dean/AP
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Moneyline: Kansas City (-500) | Denver (+375)
Spread: KC -10 (-110) | DEN +10 (-110)
Total: 44.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 44.5 (-110)
Game Info: Jan. 8, 2022 | 4:30 p.m. ET | ABC
This Saturday game opened in early wagering with a look-ahead line of Kansas City as a 3-point road favorite but has since adjusted to an opening line of the Chiefs as 10-point favorites at SI Sportsbook. Kansas City, coming off a road loss at the Bengals, will be looking to secure one of the top seeds in the AFC.
The Chiefs, who are 8-1 SU in their last nine games, have also posted an impressive 6-3 ATS mark over that stretch. Denver, who has lost three consecutive games, became a profitable fade for bettors over the last two months of the season posting 2-5 ATS mark over their last seven games. Kansas City, who are only a coin flip Against the Spread (8-8) this season, are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Broncos. Most recently, in Week 13, the Chiefs beat Denver 22-9 as 8.5-point home favorites. Kansas City, which has scored 31-plus points in four consecutive games, will look to dominate an offensively challenged Broncos club that has only scored more than 13 points once over their last five games. The Chiefs will not rest any of their starters in the final week of the regular season as a victory over the Broncos will, at worst, secure the No. 2 seed, with the potential to be the top seed with a Titans loss.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 73% of money on Kansas City
Line Move: Kansas City -3 to Kansas City -10
2021 Against the Spread Record
KC: 8-8 ATS (Home: 4-5 ATS, Away: 4-3 ATS)
DEN: 7-9 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
KC: 7-9 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)
DEN: 9-7 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Moneyline: Indianapolis (-1205) | Jacksonville (+750)
Spread: IND -15.5 (-110) | JAX +15.5 (-110)
Total: 44 – Over: (-110) | Under: 44 (-110)
Game Info: Jan. 9, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | CBS
Indianapolis will look to bounce back from their home loss last week to Las Vegas when they head to Jacksonville to take on the worst team in the NFL. The Jaguars, who are just 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS on the season, have burned their backers of late posting a 0-7 ATS mark over their last seven contests.
In early wagering, Indianapolis was listed as a 8.5-point road favorite only to see that balloon to a 15.5-point spread. The Colts, who own a 4-0 SU and ATS record over their last four road games, are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season as double-digit favorites. Pro money has invested that the Colts, who own the NFL’s second-best rushing attack (152.9 rushing yards per game) led by Jonathan Taylor, will find success against a Jacksonville club that has allowed the second-most points per game (27.9). The Colts, who failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites in their 23-17 victory over the Jaguars in Week 10, have posted a 1-8-1 ATS mark in their last 10 meetings with their AFC South rival. Despite being upset by the Raiders last week, the Colts can earn a playoff spot with a victory over the Jaguars.: 59% of money is on Indianapolis
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 59% of money on Indianapolis
Line Move: Indianapolis -8.5 to Indianapolis -15.5
2021 Against the Spread Record
IND: 10-6 ATS (Home: 4-5 ATS, Away: 6-1 ATS)
JAX: 4-12 ATS (Home: 1-6 ATS, Away: 3-6 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
IND: 8-8 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)
JAX: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Matt Ludtke/AP
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Moneyline: Green Bay (-188) | Detroit (+155)
Spread: GB -4(-110) | DET +4 (-110)
Total: 44.5 – Over (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110)
Game Info: Jan. 9, 2022 | 1 p.m. ET | Fox
The Packers, early 11-point road favorites against Detroit in look-ahead lines, have since been adjusted to only 4-point favorites at SI Sportsbook.
Green Bay, who owns a 7-2 ATS record away from Lambeau this season, are expecting to rest the majority of their starters against the Lions. The Packers, who own the best ATS mark in the NFL at 12-4, have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, a first-round bye, as well as the most coveted favorable position of owning home field advantage throughout. Despite Aaron Rodgers’ contention that he is playing, oddsmakers are of the belief that Jordan Love will be under center against a Lions pass defense that ranks 30th in points allowed (27.3).
Detroit, despite only winning two games, has posted an extremely profitable 10-6 ATS mark. The status of injured Lions quarterback Jared Goff will likely impact if the Packers remain favorites by kickoff Sunday. The veteran signal caller, who suffered a knee injury in Week 15 against Arizona, is questionable to suit up against Green Bay. The Packers have won five consecutive meetings against their NFC North foe, and covered as 11.5-point home favorites in the club’s 35-17 win over Detroit in Week 2.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 52% of money on Green Bay
Line Move: Detroit +11 to Detroit +4
2021 Against the Spread Record
GB: 12-4 ATS (Home: 7-2 ATS, Away: 5-2 ATS)
DET: 10-6 ATS (Home: 5-2 ATS, Away: 5-4 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
GB: GB: 10-6 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS
DET: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Moneyline: Dallas (-225) | Philadelphia (+188)
Spread: DAL -5.5 (-110) | PHI +5.5 (-110)
Total: 42.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: 42.5 (-110)
Game Info: Jan. 8, 2021 | 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC
This Saturday night game has witnessed a sizable 2.5-point move from early look-ahead wagering. This game opened at minus-three but oddsmakers have since made Dallas a near full touchdown favorite.
The Eagles, who are 6-1 SU over their last seven games, will face a Cowboys squad that is 7-1 ATS on the road this season. Dallas, led by Dak Prescott, owns the NFL’s best scoring offense (29.9 points per game), but will now face a Philadelphia defense that has only surrendered 14.8 points per game over their last five games.
The Cowboys have beaten the Eagles in six of the last 10 meetings, which also includes a profitable 6-4 ATS mark during that stretch. Both teams have already clinched playoff berths, but overall seeding is at stake on Sunday. Dallas is not locked into the No. 4 seed, although the betting odds in each of the impactful games on the Week 18 board, all indicate it is their most likely placement.
BY THE NUMBERS
Public Betting: 69% of money on Dallas
Line Move: Dallas -3 to Dallas -5.5
2021 Against the Spread Record
DAL: 12-4 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 7-1 ATS)
PHI: 8-7-1 ATS (Home: 3-3-1 ATS, Away: 5-4 ATS)
2020 Against the Spread Record
DAL: 5-11 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)
PHI: 6-10 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 1-7 ATS)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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