How Kyrie Irving’s Return Impacts the Nets Championship Odds
Kyrie Irving is back in the lineup for the Nets.
Sort of.
The seven-time All Star and NBA Champion will make his season debut for Brooklyn Wednesday night on the road against the Pacers.
Due to Irving’s vaccination status, he is unable to play in Nets home games as well as a select few other arenas. A bout of injuries and COVID-19 issues in mid-December prompted Brooklyn to balk on its original decision to not allow Irving to play part-time.
The Nets, with MVP candidate Kevin Durant and James Harden are the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference and remain the odds-on favorite on SI Sportsbook to win the NBA title (+250). With the third member of the Brooklyn Big 3 returning to the lineup Wednesday night, our writers discussed how Irving’s part-time presence affects the Nets’ title hopes.
SI Host Ashley Nicole Moss:
The whole concept of a part-time player in the NBA is such a wild concept. I will say this: I think with or without Kyrie, the Nets have proven they can still be top dog in the East, but with that comes home court advantage in the playoffs and unless things change — Kyrie can’t play. So for me, it’s hard to back them completely 1. I’m a Knicks fan and 2. There’s a high possibility (unless things change) when Brooklyn needs him the most, he can’t be there. A sometimes player during the regular season is cool. In the post-season? Not so much.
SI Host Robin Lundberg:
Kyrie Irving's return makes me more likely to back the Nets for a couple of reasons. First, as well as Brooklyn has played thus far this season they've at times suffered from a lack of rim penetration, overall bounce and shooting. Irving checks all those boxes. Kyrie has earned plenty of the criticism he has received but make no mistake about it, he is a brilliant basketball player. I've argued he's the most skilled hooper to ever take the court so his return will put pressure on defenses. Secondly, there is a lot of time between now and the playoffs for his part-time status to change. Of course that could happen almost instantly if he decides to get vaccinated. I'd be willing to bet that he'll be available for more than road games in the postseason whether it be through him getting the shot, some sort of exemption based on standards set by other cities or another unforeseen change by then. So, I'm more likely to bet on BK with Kyrie.
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SI Betting’s Matt Ehalt:
I may be in the minority here, but I'm less tempted to take the Nets now because I assume their odds are going to improve and provide less value. I'm not sold that Kyrie's return will be smooth. We've never seen a situation like this before with a potential part-time player. How will that affect chemistry and morale? Those are questions we don't know. I'm going to pass on the Nets, especially when I like the odds with the Suns and Warriors. This could easily blow up in my face, but I'm skeptical this will go off without any hitches.
SI Writer Wilton Jackson:
Kyrie Irving being back in limited capacity strengthens the Nets as the title favorite. Irving is one of the most elite point guards, ball handlers and distributors to ever play in the NBA. His presence in the lineup as a scoring threat and facilitator with Kevin Durant and James Harden changes the way teams will have to prepare for Brooklyn. With the way teams look to find the best lineups to produce at the highest level on both sides of the ball, it’s nothing better than having an array of scoring threats to aid in pulling out victories whether big or close in margin.
Irving, Harden and Durant logged 202 regular season minutes in eight regular season games during the 2020-21 season and posted an offensive rating of 119.6, defensive rating of 112.5 and net rating of 7.2. So, the chemistry with the Big Three has worked, even with the small sample size. However, Irving won’t have much time to build chemistry. The Nets have the ninth-toughest schedule with 47 games remaining this season. Considering he cannot play in home games, at Madison Square Garden or in Toronto due to his unvaccinated status, he is only eligible to play in 21 games the rest of the season, pending him not being placed in COVID-19 protocols, injury or other situations.
If Patty Mills can make the transition of coming off the bench in some games while starting in others, Irving can produce at an elite level with the other two superstars and players from the Nets supporting cast step up when their number is called, I like their chances as title favorites to increase.
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SI Betting and Fantasy’s Bill Enright:
One of the best teams in the league is now getting back one of the league’s best players. Let that sink in for a second. Already listed as the favorites to win the NBA Title on SI Sportsbook, look for the Nets to take back the lead in the East from the Bulls and never look back.
SI Fantasy’s Craig Ellenport:
My first reaction is to fade on the Nets with Kyrie back, because Irving simply has a history of being a bad teammate who does more harm than good. He’s got an NBA title on his resume, but that’s because LeBron James’ will to win overcame Irving’s presence (Irving did play a key role in the Cavaliers’ 2016 title run, but don’t let that ruin my narrative here).
It’s not far off to compare Irving with Antonio Brown -- a great player who can be a great distraction. But if the Bucs don’t win the Super Bowl this year, it won’t be because of Brown’s Week 17 meltdown. Brady already carried Brown to a title last season. And Kevin Durant can do that with Irving. The Nets will have their hands full in the NBA Finals, but I think Durant at least gets Brooklyn there with or without Irving. So I’d still back the Nets.
SI Betting and Fantasy’s Kyle Wood:
In a vacuum, we’re asking if an NBA champion, ridiculously talented ball handler and unguardable one-on-one scorer will make one of the best teams in the NBA better. So, in a vacuum, yes, Kyrie Irving returning to the Nets in a limited capacity would make me more confident in betting on Brooklyn to win it all. But the reality is more complicated than plugging and playing someone like Klay Thompson, soon to return for another title contender, into the equation.
My answer is a bit of a cop out, but hear me out. The Nets are a better team with Irving, Durant and Harden on the court. They are three of the best individual scorers of the last 10-plus years. I do worry about their title chances with the added wrinkle of adjusting to a player like Irving, who needs the ball in his hands to score and distribute, being in the lineup only half the time, or less. If the Nets ended up playing the Knicks in a playoff series, Irving would be out for its entirety. I’m sure the greatness of Harden and Durant can will the Nets to the Eastern Conference Finals with or without Irving, but making an adjustment in a playoff series that can be as short as four games is a tall task for even the NBA’s best.
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