NFL Conference Championship Round Bad Beats and Big Payouts
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There were many reasons to scream when the NFC championship game all but ended with Jimmy Garoppolo's ill-advised interception.
Those holding Rams moneyline tickets rejoiced. Same with those backing the 49ers against the spread (-3.5) who feared a potential bet-ruining pick-six.
And then there are those who cashed an awesome four-leg parlay at SI Sportbook with that throw, which we'll discuss further momentarily.
Championship weekend featured another pair of exciting games that featured historic comebacks. That Chiefs' epic collapse is still hard to fathom and may have you wanting to call out of work today considering that the game seemed over.
We didn't see as many points scored in that matchup as bettors would have liked, but there were still plenty of big bets that cashed.
Rams-49ers turned into the low-scoring affair many expected, and you did well as long as you faded the running backs.
Let's break it down: The good, the bad and the ugly from the conference title games.
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Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP
THE GOOD
Four-Legger!
Thank you, Jimmy G!
For those that like anarchy, SI Sportbook offered a tasty boosted parlay at +1200 odds (up from +1000) that each quarterback would throw an interception Sunday.
Patrick Mahomes tossed two in the first game, while Joe Burrow hurled one. Matt Stafford got his out of the way early against the 49ers, leaving just Garoppolo. With all due respect to Garoppolo, he was arguably the safest bet to throw an interception.
Well, wouldn't you know, Jimmy G played a clean game for 58-plus minutes, and it seemed like he would ruin the bet.
But he didn't let us down!
Garoppolo's valiant attempt to avoid what would have been likely a game-ending sack (4th and 25ish) instead resulted in a game-ending interception.
What a thrilling way to win a four-leg parlay.
Checking The Boxes
SI Sportbook always provides a long list of three-leg parlays for bettors to choose from. Both games delivered quality payouts on such bets thanks to the under hitting in both games and the teams flipping who won each half.
Bettors cashed at +975 odds if they bet that the Bengals would win, the Chiefs would win the first half, and the teams would score less than 53.5 points.
You certainly earned that one considering the Chiefs led by 18 and even received the ball to start overtime, just like they did against the Bills in the divisional round.
The Rams-49ers game rewarded bettors at +800 odds that bet the Rams would win, the 49ers would win the first half, and the teams would score less than 46.5 points.
That's what we like to see!
Evan Almighty
Evan McPherson is making it look easy. Almost too easy.
The Bengals' rookie kicker delivered another perfect day by converting all four of his attempts, including the game-winning 31-yard field goal.
McPherson is now an incredible 12 for 12 this postseason and 4 for 4 in each game.
His third field goal cashed a kicking-centric boosted prop at SI Sportbook +350 odds (up from +300) that he would convert at least three field goals.
The Bengals' hero also cleared over 8.5 total points at +100 odds.
Extra Quarter, Extra Income
Considering one divisional round game went to overtime and all four featured walk-off wins, betting on an overtime game this weekend seemed like a live bet.
SI Sportbook offered at boosted +750 odds (up from +650) that at least one of the two games would not be settled within 60 minutes.
When the Chiefs failed to score a touchdown on the final possession of the fourth quarter, this tantalizing bet cashed.
Thank you, Chiefs and Bengals.
Rising To The Occasion
Stafford delivered for his bettors in his first career conference championship.
Stafford topped his rushing yards (-118), passing yards (-125), passing touchdowns (-250), completions (-110), combined passing and rushing yards (-125) and passing attempts (-133) props. He threw for 337 yards and two scores.
Stafford's strong day allowed Cooper Kupp (11-142-2) and Odell Beckham Jr. (9-113-0) to top their receiving yards and receptions props easily.
You got to like the quarterbacks who cash their props and ensure their teammates win you some money.
Ed Zurga/AP
Receptive To Winning
We didn't get the shootout many of us expected in Bengals-Chiefs, but the four main pass catchers each topped their receptions props.
Travis Kelce cleared 6.5 catches by hauling in 10 passes at +100 odds, while Tyreek Hill had seven catches to clear his prop of 6.5 at -118 odds.
Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase each had six catches with props of 5.5, with Higgins cashing at +105 odds and Chase paying out at -161 odds.
Making it all the sweeter is that three of the four just cleared their amount.
Just Made It
We always love the props that just cleared their projections. Here's a look at a few that cashed by the slimmest of margins:
• Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill: Over 78.5 receiving yards (79); (-125)
• Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Over 38.5 passing attempts (39); (-111)
• Rams RB Cam Akers: Over 13.5 yards longest rush (14); (-118)
• 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Over 231.5 passing yards (232); (-120)
Defensive Props Are Fun!
Let's show some love to a few defenders who won us money.
Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed intercepted Joe Burrow to cash the over on his interceptions prop of 0.5 at +475 odds.
Bengals pass rushers Trey Hendrickson (+125) and Sam Hubbard (+280) both cashed the over on their sacks props of 0.5. They combined for 3.5 of the Bengals' four sacks.
First And Last
We always like to first, last and anytime touchdown odds. Here's a quick recap:
• Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase: Last touchdown +825 (+100 anytime)
• Bengals RB Samaje Perine: Anytime touchdown +800
• Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill: First touchdown +675 (-125 anytime)
• Rams WR Cooper Kupp: First and last touchdown +490 (-163 anytime)
• Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman: Anytime touchdown +270
Jed Jacobsohn/AP
THE BAD
No Repeat Of Allen Vs. Mahomes
The anticipated showdown between Mahomes and Burrow didn't quite translate. They both had fine days but plenty of unders cashed.
Both Mahomes and Burrow failed to clear their passing yards props, completions props and rushing and passing yards props.
The pair also had some rough beats—just missing their projections.
Burrow finished with 23 completions with a line of 24.5 (-125), and he finished with 38 attempts with a line of 38.5 (-133).
Mahomes completed 26 passes, just missing his prop of 26.5 (-110), and his failure to clear 295 passing yards ruined a boosted parlay at +250 odds (up from +210) that he would top that passing yards projection while Kelce would score a touchdown.
We will note that both quarterbacks cleared their passing touchdowns props.
Good Not Great
Chase had a solid day for the Bengals (6-54-1) but he may not have won you money.
While he scored and topped his receptions props, Chase failed to clear his receiving yards (85.5) and longest catch (27.5) props.
What pushes Chase's day into the bad section is bettors missed on an SI Sportbook boosted parlay at +550 odds (up from +450) that Chase would have at least eight catches while Joe Mixon topped 55 rushing yards.
Mixon did his part with 88 yards, while Chase fell two receptions short.
No Running Lanes
We hope you didn't bet the over on the running backs' props in Rams-49ers since Deebo Samuel, Cam Akers and Eli Mitchell did not come close to clearing their totals.
Samuel finished with 26 yards with a prop of 40.5, Mitchell tallied 20 yards on 11 carries with a prop of 72.5 yards, and Cam Akers totaled 48 yards with his prop of 59.5.
At least Mitchell and Samuel had strong receiving days to offset the poor rushing days.
Paul Sancya/AP
THE UGLY
A Pair Of All-Time Chokes
In Sunday's loss, the Chiefs blew an 18-point lead, tying the record for the biggest lead ever squandered in an AFC championship game. The Patriots led the Colts by 18 points in the 2007 AFC championship game before falling, 38-34.
Betting the Chiefs on the moneyline didn't provide much value, but those of you that wagered on them had to be sick considering the -333 odds they had.
The Chiefs inspired the 49ers, who followed suit by blowing a record 10-point fourth-quarter lead in the NFC title game.
The 49ers entered the game with +155 moneyline odds.
Now that he's been involved in three of the more notable late-game collapses, Kyle Shanahan may want to figure out how to coach with a big lead.
Fast Start, Slow Finish
Betting the over on 54.5 for Chiefs-Bengals seemed wise considering the teams combined for 65 points in their first meeting, and the over looked good early after the teams combined for 31 points in the first half (and left points on the field).
But the Chiefs' offense pulled a Houdini act in the second half, and the teams combined for just 48 points entering overtime.
The over officially died once the Chiefs failed to score on their first drive. It was a rough loss for what seemed like a wise wager that looked well on its way to cashing.
Take the Points!
We didn't mind the Chiefs running a play with five seconds left in the first half, but we hated Mahomes' decision to dump it off in the flat with no timeouts.
The Chiefs opting against the kick there hurt bettors who took the over on Harrison Butker kicking 1.5 field goals at -137 odds.
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