March Madness: Sleepers to Love
As successful sports investors can attest, making money in the betting industry is simply about "numbers." Professional bettors scour all outlets at their disposal searching for the best lines on individual games.
In futures’ wagering, the value of the investment is solely the assigned ‘number’ known as the odds. Gonzaga is the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament and thus has been assigned the shortest odds to cut down the nets: +300 at SI Sportsbook.
However, what fun is betting the chalk? Here are several teams that enter the field fresh off winning their respective conference tournaments. These clubs have all been designated with double-digit value by oddsmakers and thus qualify as "sleepers" from a betting perspective.
Let’s take a deeper look!
Iowa Hawkeyes +2500
Midwest region, No. 5 seed
Overall Record: 26-9
ATS Record: 22-13 ATS
Big Ten Champions
Sweet 16 Odds: -200
Final Four Odds: +350
I will admit, I am down on the Big Ten this season, but the way Iowa is playing over the past month cannot be overlooked. Iowa heads into the NCAA tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country after winning the Big Ten tournament for the first time since 2006. The Hawkeyes, who are 9-1 straight up (SU) and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, have one of the best players in the country in forward Keegan Murray. The sensational sophomore averaged 25.8 points and 9.0 rebound in the club’s four victories in the Big Ten tournament.
Murray leads a talented squad that is absolutely lethal from beyond the arc, shooting 36.8% as a team. Iowa drew the No. 5 seed in the Midwest region and is the biggest favorites of the four 5-seeds in the first round. Iowa will potentially have a tough matchup in the Sweet 16 with No. 1 seed Kansas, but the metrics tell us that the oddsmakers would have this one closer than many might expect. Should Iowa find a way to beat the Jayhawks, a trip to the Final Four could easily be on the horizon.
Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports
Tennessee Volunteers +2000
South region, No. 3 seed
Overall Record: 26-7
ATS Record: 20-13 ATS
SEC Champions
Sweet 16 Odds: -188
Final Four Odds: +500
Tennessee has won seven consecutive games, including 12 of its last 13 games overall. The Volunteers, who are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) over their current winning streak, capped off an impressive run in the SEC tournament that resulted in a victory over Texas A&M. The Volunteers receive solid production from their backcourt duo of Kennedy Chandler (13.8 ppg) and Santiago Vescovi (13.4 ppg).
Rick Barnes’ squad drew the No. 3 seed in the West region and will likely face a road that includes matching up with No. 2 seed Villanova in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats beat the Volunteers in November, 71-53, but since then Tennessee has earned signature wins over Auburn, Kentucky and Arizona. And just who will Tennessee potentially square off against in the Elite Eight? That would be top-seeded Arizona, who the Volunteers beat, 77-73, in December.
Chris Jones/USA TODAY Sports
Houston Cougars +3300
South region, No. 6 seed
Overall Record: 29-5
ATS Record: 22-12 ATS
American Athletic Champions
Sweet 16 Odds: +110
Final Four Odds: +550
Houston looked strong last week en route to capturing the American Athletic Conference title. The Cougars, who went an impressive 8-2 ATS down the stretch, potentially could be primed for a deep run into the NCAA tournament. The Cougars looked great in the AAC championship game, blowing out Memphis, 71-53, as 3.5-point favorites.
Should junior guard Marcus Sasser find a way to get healthy in time to play in the NCAA tournament, the +3300 odds will see increased value. Sasser has shed the walking boot from his broken foot but his status still remains unclear. After drawing the No. 6 seed in the South region, Kelvin Sampson could be staring at a showdown with No. 1 seed Arizona in the Sweet 16. KenPom has both these teams rated in his top five and this tilt would be a lot closer than most would expect in a 1 vs. 6 matchup.
Vincent Carchietta/USA Today network
Villanova Wildcats +1800
West region, No. 2 seed
Overall Record: 26-7
ATS Record: 16-16-1 ATS
Big East Champions
Sweet 16 Odds: -200
Final Four Odds: +350
Blue blood. Leadership. Hall of Fame coach. Villanova checks all the boxes you look for in a potential NCAA tournament champion. The Wildcats, who are 19-2 SU in their last 21 games, enter the tournament as Big East tournament champions for the fifth time in the last seven years. Jay Wright has Villanova poised for a potential third national championship in the last six seasons. The Wildcats possess arguably the best point guard in the country in Collin Gillespie (15.9 ppg).
Despite the elite play from the backcourt, Villanova’s ability to advance deep will likely depend on the production of front line players Brandon Slater and Jermaine Samuels. In the Big East tournament, Gillespie became more of a distributor and all three of the aforementioned players stepped up to knock down big shots from outside the paint. As we discussed above, Villanova could potentially face Tennessee in the Sweet 16 and we know Wright’s club has already beaten the Volunteers once this season. A potential all-Wildcats Elite Eight matchup with No. 1 seed Arizona would likely be assigned a very low point spread.
Check Out the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook
More betting & college basketball coverage:
- NCAA Tournament Hub
- NCAA Tournament Betting Hub
- Final Four, Championship Game and Champion Bets
- NCAA Tournament Opening Lines
- Top Seeds at Risk of Early Exit
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
