Despite the one-sided nature of these games, the series is tied, 2-2, after Boston delivered a 102-82 victory in Game 4 on Monday. The series now shifts back to Miami, where these teams split the first two games. The Heat are excellent on their home court, but the oddsmakers like the Celtics, who are 1.5-point favorites.
Given how this series has flip flopped, I’m staying away from this spread. Instead, I’m going with a trio of player props, each of which has hit in every game so far this series.
Regular-season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoffs record: 69-68
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Celtics -1.5 (-118) | Heat +1.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Celtics (-1330 | Heat (+110)
Total: Under 203.5 (-110) | Over 203.5 (-110)
Leg 1: Marcus Smart Over 11.5 Points
Smart (ankle) missed Game 4 with an ankle injury and he’s questionable for Game 5. If the Defensive Player of the Year does play in Miami, I like the over on his point total. In the two games Smart has played this series (he also missed Game 1 with a foot injury) he’s averaging 20 ppg. He’s only gone under this total twice in the postseason and his performance in Game 2 was perhaps his best of the playoffs—he nearly triple-doubled and had 24 points. It’ll be important to monitor Smart’s status as tip-off approaches, but if he does play, you can count on him Wednesday night.
Leg 2: Jaylen Brown Over 5.5 Rebounds
Brown is the Celtics’ second-leading postseason rebounder. After averaging 6.1 rebounds per game in the regular season, he’s corralling 7.1 per game in the playoffs and averages 8.5 per game in this series. He’s gone over this total in five straight games and his rebounding numbers have improved in each series. Sharing the floor with Robert Williams III has not cut into Brown’s rebounding numbers. The 6’6” guard is active on the glass and a good bet to come up with (at least) six rebounds again.
Leg 3: Kyle Lowry Under 12.5 Points
Lowry’s playoff run has been largely hampered by injuries. He’s missed eight games and averages just 6.4 ppg in 27.9 minutes. Lowry has not hit the over on this point total once this postseason. He has just two games with double-digit points and he finished with three points in Game 4. Unless Lowry, who’s questionable for Wednesday’s game, miraculously gets hot from outside, his streak of unders should live on.
BET: Three-Leg, Same-Game Parlay (+230)
- Marcus Smart Over 11.5 Points
- Jaylen Brown Over 5.5 Rebounds
- Kyle Lowry Under 12.5 Points
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