Golden State leads the series, 3-1, after Dallas won its first game Tuesday to extend the series. The series shifts back to San Francisco, where the Warriors won the first two games handily.
The history of Luka Dončić putting together gaudy stat lines in elimination games is well-documented, but I’m not making any bets involving the Mavs’ star. Instead, I’m combining a tried and true player prop with two more props to complete a three-leg, same-game parlay with the SI Sportsbook bet builder.
Regular-season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoffs record: 70-70
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Mavericks +7.5 (-118) | Warriors -7.5 (+100)
Moneyline: Mavericks (+240) | Warriors (-300)
Total: Under 215.5 (-110) | Over 215.5 (-110)
Leg 1: Warriors Over 109.5 Points
Golden State averages 117.8 ppg at home during the playoffs. The top offense remaining in the postseason has scored as many as 142 points at Chase Center during its current playoff run. The Warriors have been held under 110 points just twice in eight home games—Game 5 against the Nuggets and Game 4 versus the Grizzlies. So far, Dallas’ defense has not been successful in keeping Golden State in check. The Warriors are averaging 114 ppg in the series and 119 at home in the Western Conference finals. It’s a safe bet that Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole can get their team to 110 points.
Leg 2: Steph Curry Over 4.5 Rebounds
I’ve been on the Curry rebounding train for a while now, and I’m not getting off until there’s reason to. He’s now strung together five games in a row with five or more rebounds. In the last two games, it’s been five rebounds on the dot for Curry after he pulled down an average of 10 boards in the first two games of the series. Still, betting on Curry to grab five boards has been a profitable leg of my last two Warriors-Mavs parlays and I’m sticking around for a third.
Leg 3: Reggie Bullock 3+ Made Three-Pointers
This is probably the riskiest leg of this parlay, which is somewhat surprising considering Bullock has gone over this total in three of four games this series. Watching him go 0-10 (0-7 from three) in Game 3 made it seem like he’d never hit another shot, then he turned around and drained 6-10 from beyond the arc in Game 4. He hit six threes in Game 2 and four in Game 1. Overall, Bullock is shooting better in this series than he did against the Suns and he’s getting more shots up, which means more opportunities to cash this bet. Dallas needs another three-point shooting clinic, and that starts with Bullock’s quick spot-up release.
BET: Three-Leg, Same-Game Parlay (+270)
- Warriors Over 109.5 Points
- Steph Curry Over 4.5 Rebounds
- Reggie Bullock 3+ Made Three-Pointers
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