2025 Masters Odds: Rory McIlroy Closes Gap on Scottie Scheffler, Other Observations

Brian Giuffra | Mar 17, 2025

Rory McIlroy's odds to win the Masters are continuing to trend down. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After securing his second victory of the young golf season, Discord expanded on whether Rory Mcilroy has closed the gap on Scottie Scheffler as the best player in the world. 

Phil Mickelson would like to throw Joaquin Niemann in there, but that’s another subject that we’ll get to in a minute. 

As for the oddsmakers, there’s certainly a growing belief in McIlroy as his odds to win the Masters have dropped for the second time this year, while Scheffler’s continue to rise. 

McIlroy, who won the Players Championship in a playoff Monday and also won at Pebble Beach in early February, is now +600 at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the 2025 Masters. He was +1000 before his win at Pebble and +650 after it. He now has an implied probability of 14.29% to win his first green jacket after being under 10% to start the year. 

Scheffler remains the betting favorite ahead of McIlroy but has seen his odds move from +420 in Feb. to +490 today at FanDuel. That makes his implied probability of winning 16.95%. 

Here are the odds at FanDuel for the top 10 players. 

2025 Masters Odds 

• Scottie Scheffler +490
• Rory McIlroy +600
• Ludvig Aberg +1300
• Xander Schauffele +1500
• Jon Rahm +1500
• Collin Morikawa +1700
• Bryson DeChambeau +2200
• Hideki Matsuyama +2300
• Justin Thomas +2400
• Brooks Koepka +3100

Outside of Scheffler and McIlroy, the other biggest odds move is DeChambeau. He was +1700 a few weeks ago, but is now +2200. His best finish on LIV this year was Riyadh (T6), but since then he's had a T18, T20 and T10.

Schauffele's odds have gone down from +1300 to +1500 while Aberg's moved from +1600 to +1300 after his win at the Genesis. Thomas, though winless this year, has shown solid form and moved from +2800 to +2400.

Scheffler is the defending Masters champion and has two wins at Augusta. However, his start to the 2025 season was delayed because of a cut on his hand suffered in a cooking accident and his play hasn’t been as sharp as it was last year when he won seven times on Tour and also claimed the gold medal at the Olympics. 

That said, he has two top 10s, a T11 and his worst finish was a T25 at the WM Phoenix Open—likely a dream start for many lesser players. 

McIlroy, meanwhile, has two wins in four PGA Tour starts and was T17 and T15 at the Genesis and Arnold Palmer. The biggest question for him heading into Augusta is whether can he get over the hump and win his first major in more than a decade at a course where he has plenty of scar tissue. It also remains the final major for him to complete the career grand slam, adding to the pressure.  

As for Mickelson, he caused a social media storm when he tweeted his belief Niemann is the best player in the world and questioned whether Scheffler would win any tournament this season. He later said he was “having fun” about Scheffler, but didn’t walk back the post. 

For what it’s worth, Niemann, who's won twice on LIV this year, is +3300 at FanDuel to win the Masters. That’s tied with fellow LIV golfer Tyrrell Hatton and just behind Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay, both +3200. 

While Rory and Scheffler appear to be playing slightly higher level than anyone else in the world of golf today, you could argue this Masters is as wide open as any in years. Scheffler had multiple wins last year and in 2022 when he won his first Masters and Rahm was in the same boat when he won in 2023. 

While McIlroy seems to fit the same mold, his recent heartbreak at majors and historical shortcomings at Augusta make him hard to trust. Scheffler is trying to become the first repeat Masters champion since Tiger Woods in 2001-02, and everyone else in the top 10 betting odds has their own reasons to support and oppose betting. 

Still, the odds say McIlroy is closing the gap on Scheffler and so do the results this year. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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