Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh: Who Has Edge in Latest AL MVP Odds?

Breaking down the AL MVP odds with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh leading the race.

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is -125 to win the AL MVP award. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is in search of his second consecutive AL MVP award, but the market has shifted in a big way over the last month, putting him in a dead heat with Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh.

Judge, who has a near lock to win the AL MVP before going down with a flexor strain, has returned to New York’s lineup, but he’s just 3-for-15 in his five games since returning.

After Judge’s injury moved Raleigh to the favorite in this market, oddsmakers have readjusted things with Judge returning to action so quickly. The reigning AL MVP is -125 to win this award while Raleigh is -105, giving bettors a real chance to wager on either player at a pretty favorable price.

This is a two-man race, as no other player in the AL has shorter than +10000 odds to win the award. 

Judge’s health is certainly a concern going forward, but should bettors take advantage of the Yankees superstar at this price?

Here’s a look at the odds, the numbers each of these All-Stars has put up, and my prediction for who wins the AL MVP in 2025. 

American League MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Aaron Judge: -125
• Cal Raleigh: -105
• Jose Ramirez: +10000
• Bobby Witt Jr.: +10000
• Tarik Skubal: +10000

Note: No other player has shorter than +10000 odds to win AL MVP.

Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh Stat Comparison

	Aaron Judge	Cal Raleigh
WAR	6.5	5.3
Batting Average	.337	.247
OBP	.446	.354
Slugging Percentage	.691	.593
OPS	1.137	.947
OPS+	211	168
Runs	92	78
HR	37	45
RBI	86	98
wRC+	201	160

Note: Judge leads MLB in WAR, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, wRC+ and leads the AL in runs scored.

Note: Raleigh leads MLB in home runs and runs batted in.

AL MVP Prediction

Had Judge not gotten hurt, he’d likely still be a massive favorite in this market, but the initial adjustment after his injury has now put Raleigh in the same stratosphere as the Yankees star.

While Raleigh is having a terrific season and has hit a ton of home runs, Judge has a wRC+ that is over 40 points better than Raleigh and his OPS+ (211) is 43 points higher than the Mariners star.

Sure, Raleigh’s team has leapfrogged Judge’s in the standings, but the MVP award in MLB has never factored in team success as much as some other sports have. Plus, the Yankees and Mariners are both wild card teams at the moment, so it’s not like Seattle has this massive advantage in the standings.

Judge’s numbers speak for themselves, and while there is some injury concern with him, the Yankees star leads not just the AL – but all of MLB in several categories, including WAR, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, and more.

As long as Judge can play in the majority of the Yankees’ remaining games, he should lock up this award.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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