Best College Basketball Predictions and Picks Today (How to Bet March Madness Elite 8)

Iain MacMillan | Mar 30, 2025

Auburn Tigers forward Johni Broome is looking to lead his team to the Final Four as a 4.5-point favorite. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Two spots in the Final Four are up for grabs on Sunday, as the Auburn Tigers take on the Michigan State Spartans and the Houston Cougars face the Tennessee Volunteers.

Both of these matchups feature No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, and we've already seen two No. 1 seeds -- Florida and Duke -- advance to the Final Four next week.

Can Auburn and Houston follow suit?

The SI Betting team has you covered on Sunday with a best bet for each game, including a pick for one of these teams to advance. Let's break them down!

College Basketball Best Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Auburn -4.5 (-110) vs. Michigan State
• Houston-Tennessee UNDER 123.5 (-108)

Michigan State vs. Auburn Prediction

On Saturday, our own Iain MacMillan previewed this matchup, and he's buying the No. 1-overall seeded Tigers to reach the Final Four against Tom Izzo's crew on Sunday:

It's time for Michigan State's lack of scoring to catch up to them. They could get away with ranking just 148th in effective field goal percentage against their previous opponents in this tournament, but now they face an Auburn team that ranks 29th in that stat at 55.2%.

The Tigers have done a fantastic job of creating extra scoring chances in this event, averaging +8.0 over their last three games. Michigan State is just 75th in that stat and has averaged just +2.0 over their last three games.

The Spartans are a great team, but Auburn and the rest of the No. 1 seeds in this tournament are a step above the rest, and that's going to be proven this weekend.

Pick: Auburn -4.5 (-110)

Tennessee vs. Houston Prediction

When it comes to the Tennessee-Houston matchup, MacMillan isn't sold on a side. Instead, there is a key trend to watch on the defensive side of the ball that could decide this game:

These two teams play extremely similar styles of basketball. Both teams are significantly better defensively than offensively, and both have the habit of running on a cold streak with their shooting. That's why, instead of betting on a side, I think the way to handle this game is to bet the UNDER.

One of my favorite stats to look at when handicapping a total on a game is to look at Floor%, which measures a percentage of a team's possessions that result in at least one point being scored. Houston leads college basketball in opponent Floor% at 41.5%, but Tennessee is not far behind, ranking ninth at 43.2%.

If both defenses lock in, neither offense is strong enough to overcome it in a significant way. Strap in, I think we're in for a defensive battle and a low-scoring affair.

Pick: UNDER -123.5 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!