Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Riley Greene, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.)

Breaking down the best home run picks as the MLB playoffs continue with two ALDS Game 3s on Tuesday, October 7.

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a good bet to stay hot on Tuesday night in New York. / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

The MLB playoffs are heating up with the first elimination game of the Division Series on the docket Tuesday night.

New York is looking to stay alive at Yankee Stadium after the Blue Jays took the first two in Toronto. Before that, the Tigers host the Mariners with the series tied 1-1.

At SI Betting, we share our favorite home run props for every day of the MLB season, and there are a few players worth targeting as the playoffs continue.

Here’s a complete breakdown of these home run props for Tuesday, Oct. 7

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, Oct. 7:

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+393)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+389)

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+393)

I picked Riley Greene OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI as one of my best bets for today in SI Betting’s Walk-Off Wagers column, and a lot of that analysis applies here:

Riley Greene broke out in a big way for the Tigers this season. After putting up 35 home runs and 111 RBI in his previous two seasons (236 games), he had 36 HR with 111 RBI in 157 games this season, helping Detroit to the playoffs.

Greene started the postseason hot with a double and run scored in the first two games, and two singles in the next two games, but went 0 for 4 on Sunday night in Seattle. However, the Mariners now have a pitcher on the mound in Game 2 who Greene will love to see.

The outfielder is 5 for 12 in his career against Logan Gilbert, with one of those hits being a double earlier this season.

Greene bats in the middle of the order for the Tigers and I’ll take this at even money for him to keep swinging a hot bat.

On top of all of that, Gilbert has allowed a home run in four straight starts and nine of his last 10.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+389)

I picked Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI as one of my best bets as well, and I truly can’t believe that he’s priced this high to hit a home run.

I don’t know if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could’ve hoped for a better start to the playoffs. He is six for nine with two home runs and six RBI for an incredible 1.333 slugging percentage and 1.933 OPS.

Those came at home, and now Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays go on the road, where the slugger was even better this season. He hit .323 with a .901 OPS on the road as opposed to .262 with a .796 OPS at home. He also quite enjoyed playing at Yankee Stadium, going 10 for 22 (.455) with two home runs and two doubles for a 1.318 OPS.

But it doesn’t stop there.

Guerrero Jr. also has incredible career numbers against Rodon. He is 10 for 17 against the southpaw with one home run and three doubles while also being walked four times.

Adding to that, even Guerrero Jr.'s outs have been loud. His last two outs in Game 2 had exit velocities of 97.9 mph and 94.2 mph. These nearly 4/1 odds at Yankee Stadium are a gift.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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