Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Dolphins vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 3)

Breaking down the best picks and prediction for the Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills matchup on Thursday night.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is a solid prop target in Week 3. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Thursday Night Football in Week 3 features a battle between two AFC East teams that could not be going in more different directions.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are off to a great start in the 2025 season, coming back to beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 before dominating the New York Jets in Week 2. At 2-0, the Bills look poised to compete for the No. 1 seed in the AFC this season.

On Thursday, they’ll take on an 0-2 Miami Dolphins team that’s 2025 season – and future – may be hanging in the balance. The Dolphins were blown out in Week 1 by the Indianapolis Colts, and they then allowed 33 points in a loss to the New England Patriots in Week 2.

While some may not want to admit it, Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat in his fourth season in South Beach. Another poor showing on Thursday night could lead to changes in Miami, and the Dolphins are already looking like a long shot to make the playoffs in 2025. 

So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that oddsmakers have set the Bills as double-digit favorites at home in this matchup.

There are a ton of ways to bet on this Thursday Night Football clash, and the SI Betting team has been making picks all week long across different markets.

Here’s a look at some of the top picks and predictions for this Week 3 matchup. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Dolphins vs. Bills

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook.

• Miami Dolphins +13 (-108) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan
• De’Von Achane Anytime TD (+125) – Peter Dewey
• Josh Allen OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (-147) – Peter Dewey
• Dalton Kincaid OVER 2.5 Receptions (-175) – Peter Dewey

Miami Dolphins +13 (-108) vs. Buffalo Bills – Iain MacMillan

In his Road to 272 column this week, SI NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is taking the points with the Dolphins on Thursday night: 

I have defended the Dolphins so far this season, and just as I was about to jump off the Miami train, the betting market went ahead and made them massive underdogs in Week 3 against the Buffalo Bills. I think the Bills deserve to be double-digit favorites, but a spread of 13 is a bit too far in my opinion.

Let's take a look at some positives. The Dolphins have been able to run the ball successfully, ranking fourth in Rush EPA and ninth in Rush Success Rate while averaging 5.1 yards per carry, the fourth-best average so far. Now, they get to face a bad Bills run defense that has allowed 6.8 yards per carry so far this season.

Despite the first couple of ugly losses, the Dolphins rank higher in Net Yards per Play than you'd think. At -0.2, they rank 18th in the league in that stat, one spot below the Commanders and two spots above the Vikings.

There's enough there in the underlying numbers that I have no choice but to take all these points with the Dolphins.

De’Von Achane Anytime TD (+125) – Peter Dewey

Earlier this week, I shared in our best anytime touchdown scorer picks for this game why Achane is a great bet against this Buffalo run defense: 

The Bills have struggled to stop the run in the 2025 season, allowing three rushing touchdowns and a league-worst 6.8 yards per carry through two games this season.

Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson both ran wild on the Bills in Week 1, while the New York Jets finished with 100 rushing yards against Buffalo in Week 2. 

Enter Dolphins running back De’Von Achane, who has scored through the air in each of the team’s opening games of the 2025 season.

I think this is a prime spot to back Achane since he’s going to be involved in both the running game and the air attack. However, this could be one of the best matchups he has all season when it comes to running the ball. So far in 2025, Achane has 85 rushing yards on 18 carries.

I’d expect him to be heavily involved on Thursday night. 

Josh Allen OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (-147) – Peter Dewey

This week, I shared in our best props for this matchup why I’m buying Allen to throw multiple scores against Miami: 

The Dolphins have an all-new secondary in the 2025 season, and so far they have struggled to slow down Daniel Jones and Drake Maye through the air, allowing the ninth-most passing yards in the NFL.

I’m going to bet on Allen’s touchdown passes in Week 3, even though he failed to throw one in a blowout win over the New York Jets.

Allen had at least two scores in 10 of his regular-season games in 2024, and he threw two scores (on 46 pass attempts) in Week 1 against Baltimore.

The Dolphins have allowed 33 points in back-to-back games, and I expect Buffalo to be in the mix for 30 or more points in Week 3. 

Dalton Kincaid OVER 2.5 Receptions (-175) – Peter Dewey

Another player prop that I love in Week 3: Dalton Kincaid’s receptions. The young tight end is undervalued after a strong start to 2025: 

I can’t believe this number is set at just 2.5 for Dalton Kincaid in Week 3, as he’s been targeted 10 times in the 2025 season, reeling in eight passes for 85 yards and a touchdown.

What’s even more impressive is Kincaid was targeted six times in Week 2 even though Buffalo threw for less than 200 yards as a team and attempted less than 30 passes. Kincaid has caught at least four balls in each game, giving him a pretty solid floor in this market. 

The Dolphins’ secondary has struggled to slow down much worse quarterbacks than Allen, so I think that’s a huge boost for all Bills pass catchers on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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