Biggest NBA Finals Odds Movement Following Opening Day of Free Agency (Nuggets Big Winners)

Taking a look at some of the 2026 NBA Finals odds movement after the opening day of free agency.

The Denver Nuggets are +1200 to win the title at DraftKings. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Day 1 of NBA free agency featured several interesting moves, as teams like the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets and Atlanta Hawks loaded up in an attempt to make a run at a top seed in their respective conferences in the 2025-26 season.

While there wasn’t a blockbuster trade of a superstar player or any massive signing – there simply isn’t a marquee free agent on the market right now – there were moves around the edges that impacted the odds to win the title next season.

More specifically, four teams saw their odds move up the board at FanDuel Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook, a sign that oddsmakers are enthused by the moves that they’ve made so far.

I’m taking a look at the biggest NBA Finals odds movement, and explaining whether or not bettors should keep these teams on their radar when it comes to building out a portfolio of futures for the 2025-26 season. 

Denver Nuggets

• FanDuel: Second in Odds at +850
• DraftKings: Moved from +1500 to +1200

The Nuggets orchestrated two massive moves to improve their depth – and their financial situation – on Monday night.

First off, Denver reportedly dealt Michael Porter Jr. and an unprotected 2032 first-round pick to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for Cameron Johnson, saving the team around $17 million in salary for the 2025-26 season. 

While MPJ had been an important part of Denver’s championship run in 2023, he is extremely overpaid for his production at the moment. Johnson, who is making just over $21 million next season, averaged over 18 points per game for Brooklyn in the 2024-25 season and is one of the best 3-and-D players in the NBA.

Shortly after the trade, the Nuggets reportedly agreed to a deal with free agent wing Bruce Brown – another key piece of Denver’s 2023 championship team. Brown left after that season in free agency, but he now finds his way back to Denver as an important depth piece.

Oddsmakers seemingly were huge fans of both moves, as FanDuel shifted Denver to No. 2 in the odds (+850) while DraftKings moved the Nuggets up to +1200 to win the title – ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves in the West. 

New York Knicks

• FanDuel: Second in Odds at +850, Moved Ahead of Cavs
• DraftKings: Third in Odds at +850

The New York Knicks didn’t make the splashiest move in free agency, but it still impacted their odds to win it all.

New York reportedly will sign veteran guard Jordan Clarkson to a contract once he clears waivers, a significant upgrade to New York’s bench for the 2025-26 season. Clarkson, who averaged over 16 points per game last season, will likely replace the Cameron Payne/Delon Wright role for New York. 

As a result, oddsmakers at FanDuel bumped the Knicks up to +900 and then +850 to win the Finals next season – tied for the second-best mark in the NBA. 

Atlanta Hawks

• FanDuel: Now +3000 to Win Title
• DraftKings: Moved from +12000 to +6000

What haven’t the Atlanta Hawks done this offseason? 

After missing the playoffs with back-to-back play-in tournament losses in the 2024-25 season, the Hawks made some major moves on the opening day of free agency, adding to their trade for Kristaps Porzingis and drafting of Asa Newell. 

Here’s a quick look at Atlanta’s transactions so far: 

• Traded for Kristaps Porzingis
• Drafted Asa Newell at No. 23 (received an unprotected NOP 2026 first-round pick as well)
• Sign-and-trade for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
• Signed Luke Kennard

Atlanta now has an impressive roster around Jalen Johnson and Trae Young, and oddsmakers at DraftKings are taking notice. The Hawks cut their NBA Finals odds in half on Monday night, moving from +12000 to +6000 to win it all. If Atlanta can add a veteran point guard as a backup to Young, it should feel great about its chances to compete for a top-four spot in a weakened Eastern Conference. 

Los Angeles Clippers

• FanDuel: +1500 to Win Title (Seventh-Best)
• DraftKings: Moved from +4000 to +3000

The Los Angeles Clippers didn’t make a flashy move in the offseason, but they did re-sign James Harden and Nic Batum before adding Brook Lopez in free agency.

With those three moves, oddsmakers at DraftKings moved the Clippers from +4000 to +3000 to win the title next season. LAC should be in the mix – as long as Kawhi Leonard is healthy – for a top-six seed in a loaded Western Conference.  

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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