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Chiefs Win Total Projection for 2025 Season (Kansas City Expected to Take Step Back)
The Kansas City Chiefs went 15-2 in 2024, leading to the No. 1 seed in the AFC and a third-straight Super Bowl appearance.
Unfortunately, they fell short in the big game, failing to become the first team in the Super Bowl era to win three-straight Vince Lombardi Trophies. Now, they have to start from square one as they try to, at the very least, return to the AFC Championship eighth straight season.
I have bad news for Chiefs fans. Oddsmakers don't expect them to put together another 15-win season. In fact, they don't even have the highest win projection in the AFC. Let's dive into it.
Kansas City Chiefs Win Total
- OVER 11.5 (+105)
- UNDER 11.5 (-125)
Chiefs Win Total Dips in 2025
The Chiefs are one of four teams with a win total set at 11.5 at FanDuel, but two other teams in the AFC have the OVER set as better odds. The OVER 11.5 wins for the Buffalo Bills is set at -160, and the OVER 11.5 wins for the Baltimore Ravens is set at -110. For the Chiefs, the UNDER is the favored side at -125, meaning there's an implied probability of 55.56% that they win 11 or fewer games. Kansas City has won 12 or more games in six of its previous seven seasons.
The Chiefs went 15-2 in 2024, but many NFL fans criticized their play last season, citing many close fourth-quarter wins breaking in their favor. Unfortunately for Kansas City, some metrics back that belief up. For example, the Chiefs ranked just 22nd in the league in Net Yards per Play (-0.3), worse than teams like the Dolphins and Titans. They also ranked just ninth in EPA per play and 15th in opponent EPA per play.
The Chiefs will hope to string together some more comfortable wins in 2025, but based on their odds to win the AFC West, don't be surprised if they fail to win their 10th-straight division title.
Kansas City has the 12th-most difficult schedule in the league this season and will open its 2025 campaign in Brazil against the Los Angeles Chargers on September 5.
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-eb6ee9a9f2179a90cbfe0d8c654d1a62.jpg "Iain MacMillan")
Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.