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Cognizant Classic Picks, Props and Predictions: SI Panel Betting on Daniel Berger and Billy Horschel
For the second week in a row, the SI Golf betting panel narrowly missed on a longshot, with Matt Vincenzi and Brian Kirschner’s 80-1 bet on Aldrich Potgieter losing in a playoff (on a lucky bounce off the tree no less!) at last week’s Mexico Open. The positive news is three of our props hit and, after Iain MacMillan narrowly missed on a Patrick Rodgers at 200-1 at the Genesis two weeks ago, it’s clear we’re closing in on the bullseye for our first outright win.
The panel includes SI Golf insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, FanSided senior editor and golf bettor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra.
MacMillan is now 3-0 on his prop bet picks while Vincenzi hit at +300 for Stephan Jaeger’s Top 10 and Schwarb hit Akshay Bhatia Top 20 at -110 odds last week. Kirschner, Williams and Giuffra went 0-4.
This week is the Cognizant Classic at PGA National, a shorter course with lots of water and wind in the forecast. Ball striking and accuracy are a premium on this course and most of the panel is focused on the top of the odds board for their outright picks, while one person is looking a bit further down at a hometown hero.
Here are our betting picks for the Cognizant Classic, including outright, longshot, first-round leader and prop picks as well as our final score prediction. Full breakdowns of the picks are below the graphic.
Outright Pick
Iain MacMillan: Keith Mitchell (+3500, FanDuel)
I’m keeping things simple this week and betting on golfers who can hit greens, scramble well, and avoid bogeys. Not only does Keith Mitchell rank 14th, third, and third in the aforementioned categories, he’s also a past winner here and has finished inside the top 10 the two most recent times he’s teed it up at PGA National.
Matt Vincenzi: Shane Lowry (+2000, DraftKings)
Shane Lowry loves PGA National as evidenced by his three consecutive top-four finishes at the golf course. The Irishman lives in Jupiter, Florida and ranks 1st in the field in strokes-gained total in the Sunshine State and second in strokes-gained total on difficult or very difficult courses.
John Schwarb: Daniel Berger (+2800, DraftKings)
The Florida native has been knocking on the door this season (T2 in Phoenix, 12th at the Genesis) and this week he busts it open at his home event. Berger has two fourths and a runner-up on his resume at the Champion course and will be comfortable with whatever the weather offers, including what could be a windy Sunday.
Brian Kirschner: Billy Horschel (+5500, FanDuel)
Billy Horschel knows how to win golf tournaments, plain and simple. Everything from The Memorial to the BMW Championship at Wentworth to an alternate field event in Punta Cana. I think that 50/1 is great odds on a proven winner on a course he loves. With five top 16 finishes in his career here, it’s certainly a spot he likes. I love that he is coming off a top 5 finish at Pebble and his iron play has been really solid. Let’s get Billy back on his home Bermuda and see him hold the trophy at the end of the week.
Cody Williams: Daniel Berger (+2800, FanDuel)
Not to put too fine a point on it, but Daniel Berger is straight vibin’ coming into the Cognizant. While there’s a missed cut at the Farmers sandwiched in there, he has three Top 21 finishes in his last four starts, including a T2 at Phoenix and 12th at the Genesis. He’s a perfect fit for PGA National with his ability on approach (18th in strokes gained over the last 24 rounds in this field) and is an accurate driver with a history of playing well in blustery winds. That combination should serve him well and get him back in the winner’s circle for the first time in quite a while.
Brian Giuffra: Sepp Straka (+2500, FanDuel)
When handicapping this event, I looked for accurate drivers and elite ball strikers. That’s Straka to a tee. He’s 11th on tour in driving accuracy, fifth in proximity to hole on approach and 13th in SG: Approach. Equally important on one of the shorter courses on Tour, he’s 11th on approach shots from inside 200 yards. Couple that with a win and Top 5 in the last three years at this event and I like his chances to get his second win on Tour this season.
Longshot Pick
Iain MacMillan: Bud Cauley (+7500, FanDuel)
Cauley leads the PGA Tour in both scrambling percentage and bogey avoidance this season. He’s also coming off a solid T21 finish at the WM Phoenix Open while also finishing T21 at the Cognizant Classic last year.
Matt Vincenzi: Danny Willett (+35000, DraftKings)
Willett is a golfer who I always like to take a look at in difficult tests. The Englishman resides in Orlando and is coming off of a strong finish in his most recent start at Torrey Pines. He finished T9 and was very accurate off the tee and putted well, which are good signs for a player like Willett.
John Schwarb: Eric Cole (+9000, FanDuel)
Two years after losing in a playoff to Chris Kirk at PGA National, Cole is back with a tantalizing price. His best efforts this season are a fifth at the Sony Open and T22 at Pebble Beach. While his last two starts were missed cuts, I think he comes back home to South Florida refreshed and ready for a productive Florida Swing.
Brian Kirschner: Joe Highsmith (+11000, DraftKings)
I am taking a flyer on Highsmith this week. He is coming off a 17th place finish in Mexico where he gained 6 strokes ball striking and his second-best approach performance of his career. Although he has not had the best of results this season, he’s gained on approach in three straight starts. I think at triple digits, he is worth a bet.
Cody Williams: Ryan Gerard (+8000, FanDuel)
After spending last season on Korn Ferry, it feels like Ryan Gerard might be a forgotten man. But since his return to the PGA Tour, he’s made all five cuts and has finished T15 and T17 in his last two starts, gaining on approach and with the putter in each of the measured tournaments. The one time he played PGA National in 2023, he was stellar with an outright fourth finish and 8.5 strokes gained ball striking. I think he’s live at 80/1 to make noise again atop the leaderboard.
Brian Giuffra: Lucas Glover (+6000, FanDuel)
Similar to what I said about Straka above, Glover is fourth in driving accuracy, 10th in proximity to the hole and 22nd in approaches from under 200 yards. He’s also an elite scrambler, ranking 19th on tour in that category. His putting has been solid this year and he has a solid history at this course with one top 5 and two top 20s.
First-Round Leader
Iain MacMillan: Harry Hall (+7000, Caesars)
Hall is another golfer with a great short game, ranking 25th in scrambling and 12th in strokes gained: putting. He enters this week tied for second on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average at 67.00. I don’t have faith in him to hold things together for four rounds, but I’m willing to take a shot on him getting off to a fast start once again.
Matt Vincenzi: Gary Woodland (+8000, DraftKings)
Woodland has had a lot of success at PGA National and is hitting the ball very well to kick off 2025. If he can get the putter to cooperate, he should have a low round in him.
John Schwarb: Shane Lowry (+4000, DraftKings)
Lowry is a worthy tournament favorite given his three top-5 finishes in the last three Cognizant/Honda Classics. He has only made three starts so far on Tour this season, but one was a runner-up at Pebble Beach. Now he’ll likely play three straight with Cognizant/Bay Hill/Players. Instead of taking him at +2000 to win this week, I’ll take him at twice that price to start fast.
Brian Kirschner: Beau Hossler (+7000, DraftKings)
I typically like to target golfers that have early tee times and are historically fast starters in this market. Beau checks both of those boxes. With a FRL earlier this year at the Wyndham Championship, another positional bermuda golf course, I really like Beau to get off to a hot start as he is the second tee time off on Thursday morning.
Cody Williams: Jackson Suber (+10000, FanDuel)
We’re honestly just taking a big flier here for first-round leader with recent KFT graduate Jackson Suber. Results have been mixed thus far, going T6, missed cut, T56, missed cut. However, he’s still fourth in this field in SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds and has been positive with the short game. If he can find any semblance of accuracy with the driver, his ball-striking is good enough for a hot start, even if I don’t think it’ll hold up for him to win.
Brian Giuffra: Russell Henley (+4500, FanDuel)
I’m going to sprinkle a half unit on Henley to win outright, but I also like him in the first round. He’s got a 7:40 AM tee time on Thursday when the wind is supposed to be down and has a career scoring average of 68.9 in the first round at PGA National. Like all my picks this week, he’s accurate with the driver and on his approach shots. We all know he’s a great putter, so all we need is for that to get hot on Thursday and we could have our first FRL win of the year.
Prop Bet
Iain MacMillan: Mackenzie Hughes Top Canadian (+300, DraftKings)
I’m selling my stock in Taylor Pendrith this week. His short game hasn’t been dialed in yet in 2025 and his approach play plummeted at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. Instead, I’ll back Mackenzie Hughes as the top Canadian. He posted a runner-up finish here in 2020 and his play around the greens has always been one of his biggest strengths.
Matt Vincenzi: Matteo Manassero Top 20 (+500, DraftKings)
Manassero has had a strong start to his long-awaited return to the PGA Tour. Although the finishes aren’t spectacular, the courses on the West Coast swing don’t necessarily fit the Italian’s game. PGA National is a course where Matteo’s accuracy and polished around the green game will pay dividends.
John Schwarb: Billy Horschel Top 20 (+200, DraftKings)
The Florida native has top-20 finishes in five of his 12 appearances at PGA National. Horschel’s season has been a little quiet so far with a best of T9 at Pebble Beach, but still ranks 32nd in strokes-gained approach and that’s one of the first stats to study this week. Being back home will do him good and I’ll take 2-to-1 that he gets plenty of airtime this weekend.
Brian Kirschner: JJ Spaun Top 20 (+225, DraftKings)
I really like Spaun’s recent approach play coming into this week and think he will be an excellent course fit here. JJ has gained on approach in every single start dating back to last March, which is truly remarkable. He has great success on similar comp courses like Waialae CC and Sedgefield. I worry about him getting across the line so I think a top 20 is an excellent play.
Cody Williams: Lucas Glover Top 20 (+225, BetMGM)
While Lucas Glover might only be 46th in SG: Approach over the last 20 rounds, he’s second in the field in SG: Approach from 175-200 yards over that span, which will be key for him as one of the shorter hitters in the field. Combine that with how well he played at Pebble Beach along with five career Top 20s at PGA National and I like the value here on Glover.
Brian Giuffra: Shane Lowry Top 20 (+120, FanDuel)
I’m betting two units on Lowry to accomplish something he’s done in the last three years and arguably playing better golf than he did in any of those times. Lowry was T4 last year, T5 in 2023 and second in 2022 at PGA National. This season, he’s the 25th most accurate driver on tour and first in proximity to the hole on approach shots. On one of the shortest courses on Tour, his accuracy should be a difference maker.
Winning Score
- Iain MacMillan: -13
- Matt Vincenzi: -14
- John Schwarb: -10
- Brian Kirschner: -16
- Cody Williams: -12
- Brian Giuffra: -11
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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