Dolphins vs. Colts Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 1 (Upset in Indy?)

Can Miami pull off the upset?

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 25-16 as a starter under Mike McDaniel. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Daniel Jones era is set to get underway in Indianapolis after the former first-round pick beat out Anthony Richardson for the Colts’ starting quarterback job.

Indy is facing an uphill battle to make the playoffs in the AFC, but Shane Steichen clearly believes that Jones gives his team the best chane to win this season.

The Colts open the campaign at home against another playoff hopeful in the AFC – the Miami Dolphins.

Miami finished under .500 last season for the first time in the Mike McDaniel era, and it’s hoping that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy in 2025 to get the team back to the postseason.

Tagovailoa missed six games in 2024, and the Dolphins went just 2-4 without him, crushing their playoff hopes in the process. There has been a ton of turnover on the defensive side of the ball for Miami, but will that matter against a suspect Colts QB room? 

This season at SI Betting, we’re attempting to predict the final score of each NFL game as a fun way to help bettors decide on the spread or total in their wagers. We’ll still have our game previews, props and more, but this is a fun way to potentially hit big on an exact score prediction.

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s where I’m leaning for this Week 1 battle between two AFC squads. 

Dolphins vs. Colts Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Dolphins +1.5 (-118)
• Colts -1.5 (-102)

Moneyline

• Dolphins: -108
• Colts: -112

Total

• 47.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

This line has moved a bunch over the course of the week, as the odds moved towards Miami after De’Von Achane returned to practice. However, it appears to have settled with the Colts as 1.5-point favorites at home with Jones under center.

Dolphins vs. Colts Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he bets on every game, every week throughout the NFL season:

There's been lots of chatter in the offseason and preseason that the Miami Dolphins are a dysfunctional team, but that's propaganda I'm not ready to fall for. We can't forget about the level of talent and speed they have offensively, especially when compared to the Colts' offense, led by Daniel Jones.

Based on talent alone, the Dolphins are the better team in this Week 1 matchup.

I tend to agree with MacMillan here. Yes, the Dolphins lost Jalen Ramsey and Jevon Holland this offseason, but they have an offense that is better than Indy’s as long as Tagovailoa is on the field.

Jones and Richardson were both nightmares in the 2024 season, and there’s nothing that either has done to suggest that they can lead a team to a winning record in the 2025 season.

The big stat to look at is this: Tagovailoa is 38-24 as a starter in his career, and with McDaniel as the Dolphins’ head coach, they are 25-16 in the regular season when Tua starts.

I think Miami is live to pull off an upset in Week 1. 

Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 24, Colts 20

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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