First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 10

Iain MacMillan, Pat Forde | Oct 29, 2025

College Football Week 10 picks / Sports Illustrated

Week 9 was the first time in a while that both Pat Forde and Iain MacMillan had a winning weekend in college football, each going 3-2 with their picks. Forde is starting to close in on the season win, now just 14 correct picks against the spread away from winning the 2025 edition of the First to Forde.

We move on to Week 10, and both competitors have settled on their top five picks for this weekend's college football action. Let's dive into them.

Pat's Week 10 Picks

Georgia -7 vs. Florida (via Caesars)

The Gators are in transition from a coaching standpoint, and the Bulldogs are piecing things together. Gunner Stockton is the more reliable quarterback in this matchup, coming off a career-best game against Mississippi.

California +4.5 vs. Virginia (via FanDuel)

The Cavaliers have been blessed by the gridiron gods in a couple of games this season and are due for the breaks to even out. That, plus the long travel, adds up to a Bay Area trap game.

San Diego State -9.5 vs. Wyoming (via FanDuel)

The Aztecs are a hot team, on a five-game winning streak and dominating Mountain West competition. The MWC’s best defense will shut down a pretty average Wyoming offense.

Georgia Tech -5.5 at NC State (via DraftKings)

The Wolfpack have lost their way, with a four-game losing streak against FBS competition. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets have their eyes on the ACC prize. Haynes King has the look of a guy who won’t let his team lose.

CIncinnati +9.5 at Utah (via BetMGM)

This might be the spot where the Bearcats trip up, but it should be a close game either way. The spread is too big.

Iain's Week 10 Picks

Vanderbilt +2.5 vs. Texas (via FanDuel)

Vanderbilt still isn't getting the respect it deserves. This Commodores team ranks 11th in the country in net success rate at +9.8%, which is well above Texas, which comes in at 79th in that state at just +0.7%. It's time for us as bettors to recognize this Longhorns team simply didn't turn out as advertised, and we should be betting on their games with that thought in mind.

Maryland +22.5 vs. Indiana (via FanDuel)

The Maryland defense is good enough to keep this game within the 22.5-point spread, especially on its home field. The Terps rank 20th in opponent yards per play (4.7), 14th in opponent adjusted EPA per play, and 14th in opponent success rate. It's also worth noting that Indiana is a run-first offense, and Maryland has allowed just 3.7 yards per carry. As long as the Terps' offense can put up some points on the board, Maryland will be in a great spot to cover.

Nebraska +6.5 vs. USC (via BetMGM)

USC has struggled when playing on the road this season. The Trojans have a point differential of +32.8 at home but just +1.3 on the road. The Trojans' defense has also struggled this season, ranking 108th in opponent adjusted EPA. Meanwhile, the Nebraska defense comes in at 54th in that stat. Don't overlook the Cornhuskers this week.

Oklahoma +3.5 vs. Tennessee (via FanDuel)

This is a game between one of the best defenses in the country and one of the worst, yet it's the team with the better defense that's getting three points. Oklahoma enters this week ranking first in adjusted opponent EPA per play and second in opponent yards per play, allowing just 4.05 yards per snap. Meanwhile, the Tennessee defense ranks 125th in adjusted opponent EPA per play and 75th in opponent yards per play, allowing 5.78 yards per snap. I'll bet on Oklahoma bouncing back with an upset win against the Vols.

NC State +5.5 vs. Georgia Tech (via FanDuel)

The regression is going to come soon for Georgia Tech. Apologies to fans of the Yellow Jackets, but their underlying metrics simply don't add up. For example, Georgia Tech comes into this week ranking 65th in adjusted EPA per play and 49th in Net Success Rate. NC State ranks 51st and 25th in those two respective metrics. The key to beating Georgia Tech is stopping the run, and NC State has done a solid job of doing that this season, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and ranking 10th in opponent rush success rate. Not only do the Wolfpack have overall better metrics, but NC State also has a stylistic advantage based on its run defense.

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