Jon Rahm's U.S. Open Odds Plummet Amidst Injury Uncertainty and Poor Play (Updated)

The 2021 champion is no longer considered one of the the favorites to win.

Jon Rahm's health is a question mark coming into this week. / Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

UPDATE: Rahm withdrew from the U.S. Open on Tuesday afternoon.

It's already been a rough season for Jon Rahm and things appeared to get worse when he withdrew from LIV Houston with a foot injury last week.

That injury, of which we still know little, has thrown his status in the air for this week's U.S. Open and left many wondering if the two-time major champion will tee it up at Pinehurst at all. He has yet to arrive on-site and there's no firm decision on if he will play or not.

Oddsmakers haven't taken Rahm's name off the board yet, but his odds to win have dropped dramatically.

Following the PGA Championship, a tournament where Rahm missed the cut, Rahm's odds to win the U.S. Open were +1700 at FanDuel Sportsbook. He was fifth in the odds at that time, behind Viktor Hovland and ahead of Ludvig Aberg.

Now Rahm's odds to win the U.S. Open are down to +2500 at FanDuel. He's eighth in the odds behind Aberg (+2200), Brooks Koepka (+2000), Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) and Collin Morikawa (+1600), who all jumped Rahm on the odds board, as well as Scottie Scheffler (+300), Xander Schauffele (+1000), Rory McIlroy (+1100) and Hovland (+2000).

The implied probability of Rahm's current odds are 3.8% to win the tournament. Before they were 5.6%, so oddsmakers believe he is 1.8% less likely to win the U.S. Open now than they were a month ago.

It's not just the injury contributing to that drop.

Besides missing the cut at the PGA Championship, Rahm finished at 9 over par at the Masters and placed T45 in defense of his title. He has yet to win an event in his first season on LIV and made several uncharacteristic mistakes at the PGA Championship, including making a double bogey on the 17th hole during Round 2 to seal his missed cut.

This all comes on the heels of Rahm's move from the PGA Tour to LIV. He was arguably the best player in the world before that, winning the Masters and three other PGA Tour events last year as well as finishing T10 at the U.S. Open, T2 at the British Open and playing exceptional golf at the Ryder Cup.

He's faced more scrutiny since his move to LIV and his golf game has taken a clear step back. Now he's dealing with an injury that left him wincing in pain after a poor tee shot during LIV Houston.

Jon Rahm clearly dealing with some kind of injury here.

Was getting his foot worked on just minutes before teeing off, and now visibly in pain after this shot.

Makes you wonder how long he's been dealing with this. pic.twitter.com/We8FZCRdv0

— Tee Times (@TeeTimesPub) June 7, 2024

There is a report from Matt Vincenzi of GolfWRX stating Rahm is resting an injured toe and hopes to play, but it's unclear what level his play will be.

This could change, but for now, I’m being told that Jon Rahm is attempting to rest his injured toe as long as possible before heading to Pinehurst. At this time, he still intends to play in the U.S. Open. pic.twitter.com/foLuc7VRkF

— Matt Vincenzi (@MattVincenziPGA) June 11, 2024

For bettors, this means stay away until further notice. Quite frankly, +2500 odds wouldn't be great value even if he wasn't injured given his play this year.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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