Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for WNBA Semifinals Game 1

The Lynx are favored in Game 1.

The Minnesota Lynx and forward Napheesa Collier are favored in Game 1. / David Gonzales-Imagn Images

Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx were the only team to advance to the WNBA semifinals in a first-round sweep, and they’re looking to carry that momentum into Sunday’s Game 1 against the Phoenix Mercury.

Phoenix is coming off back-to-back wins to knock the defending champion New York Liberty out of the playoffs in Round 1.

Now, the veteran core of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Cooper is looking to upset the No. 1 seed in the W on Sunday.

Oddsmakers have set the Lynx as favorites in this matchup, as they’ve been the No. 1 team in the W all season long and were an insane 20-2 at home in the regular season.

Can the Lynx win and cover on Sunday?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 1 of this semifinal series. 

Mercury vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Mercury +8 (-112)
• Lynx -8 (-108)

Moneyline

• Mercury: +280
• Lynx: -355

Total

• 158 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Lynx How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 21
• Time: 5:00 p.m. EST 
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Tied 0-0

Mercury vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• None to report

Lynx Injury Report

• DiJonai Carrington – out

Mercury vs. Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Alyssa Thomas OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-125)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA best bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Mercury star is worth a look on Sunday: 

Mercury star Alyssa Thomas has been a beast on the glass in the playoffs, grabbing nine, six and 11 rebounds in her three games.

The only game that she failed to clear this number was in a 26-point blowout win over the Liberty where she played just 26 minutes. In the other two games of the first round, Thomas played over 37 minutes of action.

The Lynx were a dominant team all season long, but they ranked just seventh in the W in rebounding percentage. 

Thomas averaged 8.8 rebounds per game in the regular season, so I wouldn't be shocked if she’s around her season average in this matchup. 

Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

During the regular season, the Lynx won three of the four meetings between these teams, including wins by 23 and 13 at home.

All season long, the Lynx have been an elite team at Target Center, going 20-2 straight up in the regular season while posting a net rating of +16.8 – by far the best mark in the league.

Phoenix did win a road game in the first round of the playoffs, but it was just 12-10 straight up on the road in the regular season.

The Mercury fought a serious battle with the Liberty in Round 1, and they do not have the rest advantage in this matchup after playing on Friday night in Game 3. 

I lean with the Lynx to take Game 1 in commanding fashion as they’ve done at home all season.

Minnesota won its lone home game in the first round by over 20 points. 

Pick: Lynx -8 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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