Mercury vs. Mystics Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 4

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Phoenix Mercury-Washington Mystics matchup on Thursday night.

Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas is a great prop target on Thursday. / Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Don’t look now, but the Phoenix Mercury are in the mix for the No. 2 seed in the WNBA after extending their winning streak to five on Tuesday night.

With the New York Liberty losing again, the No. through No. 4 spots in the W will likely consist of Phoenix, Las Vegas and Atlanta.

On Thursday, the Mercury are set as sizable road favorites against the Washington Mystics, who have already been eliminated from playoff contention.

Washington has lost seven games in a row (and eight of its last 10), going in the tank after trading away Brittney Sykes at the trade deadline.

This should be a win for Phoenix, but can it cover the spread as well?

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this matchup.

Mercury vs. Mystics Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Mercury -9 (-110)
• Mystics +9 (-110)

Moneyline

• Mercury: -455
• Mystics: +350

Total

• 160.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Mystics How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 4
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: CareFirst Arena
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
• Mercury record: 26-14
• Mystics record: 16-25

Mercury vs. Mystics Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

• Jacy Sheldon – out
• Georgia Amoore – out

Mystics Injury Report

• Kalani Brown – day-to-day

Mercury vs. Mystics Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Alyssa Thomas 33+ Points, Rebounds and Assist (-130)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Thomas is a must bet in the prop market: 

Since the All-Star break, Phoenix Mercury star Alyssa Thomas has been on another level.

In 18 games, Thomas is averaging 16.7 points, 10.4 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game while shooting 56.1 percent from the field to lead Phoenix into the conversation for the No. 2 seed in the standings.

Thomas does it all, as she averages 8.9 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game for the entire 2025 season. In her last meeting with the Washington Mystics, Thomas had a huge game, finishing with 27 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists.

With Washington’s season in the tank due to a lengthy losing streak, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Thomas stuff the stat sheet again on Thursday.

Since the break, the MVP candidate has 11 games with 33 or more PRA. She’s a great bet to continue this stretch against the No. 9 defense in the WNBA. 

Mercury vs. Mystics Prediction and Pick

When it comes to betting on a side in this matchup, I think it’s pretty simple.

Washington is just 11th in the WNBA in net rating over its last 10 games (-12.0), and it’s dropped seven games in a row to fall completely out of the playoff picture.

This is a young Mystics team, and there’s no doubt that trading away Sykes made an already weak offense even shakier. Washington is just 12th in offensive rating (97.6) over its last 10 games, which is going to be a major issue against one of the best defensive teams in the WNBA.

Meanwhile, Phoenix has a ton to play for with the No. 2 seed up for grabs, and it’s won five games in a row to stay in the mix. The Mercury (21-18-1 against the spread) have also been one of the more trustworthy teams to bet on in the W this season.

With Washington’s season in the tank, I’ll lay the points with the road favorite on Thursday night.  

Pick: Mercury -9 (-110 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Regardless of the outcome of your wager,DraftKings will add eight $25 bonus bet tokens to your new account and award one promo code for a discounted NFL Sunday ticket subscription.