Mets vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 11

The Phillies are favored to pull off a sweep on Thursday.

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jesus Luzardo is an interesting prop target on Thursday. / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

The New York Mets are in danger of losing their spot in the NL wild card race, as they’ve lost five games in a row (including three straight to the Philadelphia Phillies) heading into Thursday’s series finale.

The Phillies have outscored the Mets 21-6 in the first three games of this series, and they’re set as favorites at home in the latest odds from the best betting sites. 

New York has lefty David Peterson (3.72 ERA) on the mound in this game, but he’s struggled since the start of August, leading the team to a 2-5 record in his seven appearances.

Philly will counter with a lefty of its own in Jesus Luzardo (4.01 ERA), who struggled a bit in his last start against New York.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this series finale on Thursday night. 

Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-176)
• Phillies -1.5 (+144)

Moneyline

• Mets: +118
• Phillies: -143

Total

• 8.5 (Over -104/Under -117)

Mets vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• New York: David Peterson (9-5, 3.72 ERA)
• Philadelphia: Jesus Luzardo (13-6, 4.01 ERA)

Mets vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 11
• Time: 7:15 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Mets record: 76-70
• Phillies record: 86-60

Mets vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• Jesus Luzardo 2+ Walks Allowed (-167)

This season, Luzardo ranks in the 45th percentile in walk percentage, allowing 56 free passes in 161.2 innings of work. 

While those aren’t terrible numbers, I have a hard time backing him against a Mets team that is third in walks drawn this season and second over the last 30 days. New York was able to work three walks in four innings against Luzardo in his last start against it. 

The lefty has at least two walks in 17 of his 29 starts this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him walk a pair of Mets – especially if he pitches deeper into this game – on Thursday night. 

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the OVER is a great bet in this series finale: 

Can the New York Mets snap their losing streak and avoid a sweep on Thursday night?

New York has lost five games in a row and is in danger of losing a wild card spot in the NL heading into its series finale with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philly has outscored the Mets 21-6 in this series, putting up nine and 11 runs in the last two games. These teams have combined to clear 8.5 runs in two of the three games in this series, and I’m expecting another high-scoring affair on Thursday.

Let’s start with the Phillies side of things.

Not only has the offense been humming in this series, but it ranks third in OPS and fourth in runs scored over the last 30 days. The Phils also rocked Mets starter David Peterson in his last outing against them, scoring five runs in four innings. 

As for their pitching, the Phillies may have a little cause for concern on Thursday. Jesus Luzardo (4.01 ERA) has been much worse at home (4.50 ERA) than he has been on the road (3.55 ERA) this season.

Plus, in his last outing against the Mets, Luzardo gave up four runs on five hits in just 4.0 innings of work. 

New York’s offense is a little tough to trust in this matchup, but I don’t have a problem with fading Peterson, who has put together a 6.69 ERA in seven starts since the beginning of August. The lefty has an expected ERA of just 4.27 this season, which ranks in the 35th percentile amongst MLB pitchers.

This series finale should feature a ton of offensive fireworks, so let’s bet the OVER with this total still set at a reasonable 8.5.

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-104 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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