Nationals vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, Sept. 5

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Washington Nationals-Chicago Cubs matchup on Friday.

Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch is a great prop target on Friday. / Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs have a huge advantage atop the NL wild card race heading into a Friday afternoon matchup with the Washington Nationals.

Chicago has a four-game advantage over the San Diego Padres (the No. 2 wild card in the NL), but it remains 5.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central division.

Washington, on the other hand, is in last place in the NL East, although it does enter Friday’s matchup on a three-game winning streak.

Jake Irvin (5.42 ERA) will get the ball for the Nats against Chicago’s Javier Assad (4.05 ERA).

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Friday’s contest. 

Nationals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Nationals +1.5 (-106)
• Cubs -1.5 (-114)

Moneyline

• Nationals: +182
• Cubs: -226

Total

• 10.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nationals vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

• Washington: Jake Irvin (8-10, 5.42 ERA)
• Chicago: Javier Assad (1-1, 4.05 ERA)

Nationals vs. Cubs How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Sept. 5
• Time: 2:20 p.m. EST
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• How to Watch (TV): Apple TV+
• Nationals record: 56-83
• Cubs record: 80-60

Nationals vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

• Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+260)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting best home run bets – Daily Dinger – why Busch is worth a look against a weak Washington pitching staff: 

Chicago Cubs infielder Michael Busch has crushed right-handed pitching in the 2025 season, and he has a great matchup on Friday against Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin.

This season, Irvin has allowed 31 home runs in 28 appearances while posting a 5.42 ERA. Since Aug. 1, Irvin has allowed eight home runs in six outings.

Busch is hitting .273 against right-handed pitching  with 24 of his 26 home runs coming against them in 2025. Over the last two weeks, he’s only homered twice, but he’s been one of the better left-handed bats for the Cubs all season.

Plus, the Nationals bullpen behind Irvin is extremely gettable. Washington ranks dead last in bullpen ERA (5.35) and it’s allowed 70 homers in 2025.

Nationals vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

This is just the fifth outing for Assad in the 2025 season, but the Cubs are 3-1 with the righty on the mound, as he’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last three starts.

Meanwhile, the Nationals are just 13-15 when Irvin is on the mound and he’s coming off a brutal month of August where he allowed eight homers in six starts. In August, Irvin posted a 8.78 ERA, leading the Nats to a 1-5 record while allowing three or more runs in every outing.

Against a Cubs team that is 17 games over .500 at home, Irvin is not going to be able to get away with another shaky outing and come out with a win.

The Nationals are just 67-72 on the run line this season despite constantly being set as underdogs, so I don’t mind betting on the Cubs to win this game going away against a weak starting pitcher. 

Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-114 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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