Nationals vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Sunday, Aug. 24

The Phillies are massive favorites on Sunday.

Philadelphia Phillies first base Bryce Harper is a great prop target on Aug. 24. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies were dealt a major blow on Saturday, as it was announced that star pitcher Zack Wheeler needs season-ending surgery after he was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. 

The injury lowers Philly’s ceiling as a contender in the NL, but it still has a six-game lead atop the NL East heading into Sunday’s series finale with the Washington Nationals.

It’s been a rough season for the Nats, who are in last place in the division, but they’ve won six of their last 10 games. Can the Phillies hold them off at home?

Ranger Suarez is on the mound for the Phils against Washington’s Jake Irvin, who has one of the worst expected ERAs (5.52) in MLB this season.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Sunday’s contest. 

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Nationals +1.5 (+118)
• Phillies -1.5 (-143)

Moneyline

• Nationals: +227
• Phillies: -287

Total

• 9.5 (Over -115/Under -106)

Nationals vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• Washington: Jake Irvin (8-8, 5.30 ERA)
• Philadelphia: Ranger Suarez (9-6, 3.25 ERA)

Nationals vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 24
• Time: 1:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCS-PH, MASN2
• Nationals record: 53-76
• Phillies record: 75-54

Nationals vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+155)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why this is a great matchup for Harper:

This isn’t nearly as favorable of a price as you’d expect with a home run prop, but it’s because Harper and the Phillies have an amazing matchup on Sunday.

Philadelphia is taking on Washington Nationals righty Jake Irvin, who has given up 29 home runs in 26 starts this season, posting a 5.30 ERA. After Irvin, the Phils will face a Washington bullpen that has a 5.66 ERA (dead last in MLB) and has given up 66 homers so far in 2025.

Harper has rocked Irvin in his career, hitting .364 (4-for-11) with a double and three walks. He has yet to take him deep, but there’s no time like the present to get it done.

Also, the Phillies star is hitting .375 with a pair of homers in the last week (six games) and he’s homered four times in 13 games over the last two weeks. 

He’s worth a look at home on Sunday afternoon. 

Nationals vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

So far this season, Irvin ranks in the eighth percentile in expected ERA, and the 17th percentile or worse in expected batting average against, hard-hit percentage, barrel percentage, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage and average exit velocity against. 

That’s a brutal statistical profile, and Irvin’s 5.30 ERA and 1.39 WHIP show that he’s been one of the worst pitchers in MLB despite his record (8-8).

In two outings against the Phillies, Irvin has allowed eight runs and 15 hits, including six runs in his last matchup against them.

While this may seem like a recipe for an easy Phils win, I’m actually eyeing the OVER in this matchup.

Suarez has struggled as of late, posting a 5.68 ERA in four August starts. He’s allowed five or more runs in three of his last six outings, and I’m not sold on him completely shutting down a Nats team that has played better as of late. 

Even though this total is pushing double digits, both offenses should be able to hang a crooked number with these starters in the game. I think that’s a perfect recipe for an OVER, especially since the Nationals rank 30th in MLB in bullpen ERA. 

Pick: OVER 9.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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