Padres vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 16

The Padres are underdogs on Tuesday night.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael King is an interesting prop target on Tuesday. / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The New York Mets are clinging to a playoff spot in the National League entering a crucial series on Tuesday against the San Diego Padres.

San Diego has a five-game cushion on New York in the wild card race, and it’s looking to overtake the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West over the final weeks of the regular season.

Michael King (2.87 ERA) will make his second start since returning from the injured list, but the Padres are set as road dogs against Clay Holmes (3.75 ERA) and the Mets.

New York has just a 1.5-game cushion over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the wild card race, so every win is going to matter down the stretch of the regular season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for Tuesday’s matchup. 

Padres vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Padres -1.5 (+151)
• Mets +1.5 (-186)

Moneyline

• Padres: -104
• Mets: -116

Total

• 8 (Over -112/Under -109)

Padres vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• San Diego: Michael King (4-2, 2.87 ERA)
• New York: Clay Holmes (11-8, 3.75 ERA)

Padres vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 16
• Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): TBS, SNY, SDPA
• Padres record: 82-68
• Mets record: 77-73

Padres vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Michael King UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-101)

Michael King has just three strikeouts in two outings since coming back from an injury in May. 

So, I’m not sold on him clearing this strikeouts prop against a Mets team that is averaging just over eight punchouts per night in 2025. King threw just 57 pitches in his August outing and 63 in his outing in September, so I’ll fade him on Tuesday if he’s limited to another short outing. 

Padres vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Earlier on Tuesday, I broke down my pick for who will win this matchup between NL wild card contenders in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column: 

Michael King returned to the San Diego Padres rotation on Sept. 9, tossing five innings of three- hit, two-run ball against the Cincinnati Reds.

Now, King takes on a reeling New York Mets team that is in danger of falling out of the playoff picture in the National League. I think he’s the starter to trust in this matchup, as the Mets have Clay Holmes on the bump on Tuesday.

Holmes – a former reliever – may be showing some signs of fatigue down the stretch of the 2025 season. He has not pitched more than 4.2 innings in a start this month, and he’s only gotten through six innings one time since the beginning of July.

Since Aug. 1, Holmes has a 4.81 ERA in seven appearances, allowing seven runs on 11 hits in 8.2 innings in September.

I lean with King to have the superior start on Tuesday, especially since the righty had a 2.59 ERA before going down with an injury in late May. 

Pick: Padres First 5 Innings Moneyline (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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