PGA Championship Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas

SI Golf staff | May 14, 2025

Justin Thomas (left), Bryson DeChambeau (center) and Rory McIlroy (right) are among our outright betting picks to win the PGA Championship. / Rory McIlroy: David Cannon/Getty ImagesJustin Thomas: Andrew Redington/Getty ImagesBryson DeChambeau: Michael Reaves/Getty ImagesBackground: Alex Slitz/Getty Images

After a highly-successful Masters where we correctly picked the first-round leader and outright betting markets, the SI Golf betting panel now turns our attention to the second major of the season, the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, in hopes of another big week! 

The panel is comprised of SI golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, FanSided senior editor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. We make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet, and winning score prediction each week. 

With as much history as Quail Hollow has between hosting an annual PGA Tour event and the 2017 PGA Championship, won by Justin Thomas, there’s plenty of data to lean on for making picks, which is a welcome rarity for majors outside the Masters. This week, the panel is focused on big hitters, who should have an advantage on a long course that’s been softened by the rain. 

On the year, Kirschner is up over 111 units, Vincenzi is up over 87 and Williams is +14.65. Giuffra (-35 units), MacMillan (-37) and Schwarb (-49) are still looking for their first outrights. 

Let’s get into this week’s picks with explanations on each below the graphic. 

PGA Championship betting picks / Sports Illustrated

Outright Pick 

Iain MacMillan: Bryson DeChambeau +950 (DraftKings)

It’s no secret that Quail Hollow is all about driving the golf ball. The best drivers will have a significant advantage on the rest of the field, so why wouldn’t we bet on the No. 1 driver of the golf ball on the planet? DeChambeau is averaging +1.97 true strokes gained per round off the tee over the past six months. He’s also coming into this event off a win at LIV Korea. He’s a no-brainer of a bet this week, though his odds to win are getting shorter.

Matt Vincenzi: Bryson DeChambeau +950 (DraftKings)

Driving the ball long and straight will provide an enormous advantage for players this week and DeChambeau has arguably solidified himself as the player who does so most reliably. This season, he’s gained on the field in both driving distance and driving accuracy in every start he’s made. The strokes-gained off the tee numbers for the two-time U.S. Open champion have been nothing short of staggering. He’s also gained strokes off the tee in 10 consecutive major championships.

John Schwarb: Rory McIlory +500 (DraftKings)

When forecasting the major champs for SI months ago, I had McIlroy winning at Quail Hollow and that was before he won the Players and exorcised his demons at the Masters. His course history here is well-documented and I’m riding the “Rory Unburdened” angle that our Bob Harig wrote Monday.

Brian Kirschner: Hideki Matsyuama +4500 (FanDuel)

In terms of ability to beat the best fields in golf compared to their betting price, I think Deki is the best bet on the board. With three signature event wins over the past 14 or so months, there is no question he can win big events. Throw in a Green Jacket and the longest current made cut streak in majors, he can absolutely be a two-time major winner. The approach has been really good in his last two starts and I can see the putter coming around this week.

Cody Williams: Rory McIlory +500 (DraftKings)

Dare to dream, y’all. It felt like Rory McIlroy was the destiny-type pick for The Masters and, albeit not without plenty of hiccups, he came through. Now we’re coming to Quail Hollow, a place where he’s a four-time winner with an overall pristine track record, and he’s maintained the dominant form he’s displayed all year. We don’t know what an unencumbered and freed-up Rory looks like in a major, but there’s no better spot to find out than in Charlotte. Let’s get the talk of the grand slam in 2025 rolling with back-to-back majors after a decade of none. 

Brian Giuffra: Justin Thomas +2200 (FanDuel) 

I get the feeling Thomas is going to be a popular pick this week and with just cause. He’s seventh in SG: App and ninth in SG: T2G on the PGA Tour this year and has a strong history at Quail Hollow, gaining nearly two shots against the field in 20 rounds there. Yes, he won his first major here in 2017. But beyond the good vibes, he’s playing arguably the best golf of his career and is built to win PGA Championships. 

Longshot 

Iain MacMillan: Min Woo Lee +9000 (DraftKings)

If we’re targeting long rivers of the golf ball, how about the fourth-longest driver on the PGA Tour who has also already captured a win this season? Min Woo Lee is a great course fit. Not only is he a strong driver of the golf ball, but he also has a fantastic short game, which is going to help immensely this week. All he needs is to have his irons in great form and he could be in contention on the weekend.

Matt Vincenzi: Jason Day +8000 (BetMGM)

Last week, Jason Day was forced to sit out the Truist Championship with a neck injury. There’s obviously a concern going forward for Day, but I still believe he’s worth the risk at long odds. If Day is healthy and ready to go this week, he can contend with the best in the world at Quail Hollow. The Australian has gotten in the mix at three big events this season (API, Players, Masters) and is clearly going after the most important trophies at this stage of his career.

John Schwarb: Daniel Berger +11000 (FanDuel)

Daniel Berger’s resurgence after his long absence from injury has been an underrated story because he hasn’t won yet, but since last fall, he has four top-seven finishes. After a T11 at the Truist, he’s up to 14th in FedEx Cup points. He was also T21 at the Masters. This stage is not too big for Berger and the price is right.

Brian Kirschner: Maverick McNealy +11000 (DraftKings) 

I will gladly bet the 12th-ranked golfer in the world at these odds this week. McNealy is an elite putter who possesses enough distance to contend on major championship setups. Already a winner on the PGA Tour in this area of the country, Mav has had a great season with five Top 10 finishes this season. I think the next thing he needs on his resume is a Top 10 in a major and it comes this week. 

Cody Williams: Min Woo Lee +9000 (FanDuel)

With the sloppy and wet conditions taking hold at Quail Hollow, carry distance is going to be even more of a factor than we already considered. Min Woo Lee is sixth on the PGA Tour this season in that metric, which could give him a distinct advantage. He has the length and the short game to contend, but he’s 90-1 because his accuracy and approach play are quite erratic week to week. With the boxes he does firmly check, though, he’s well worth a look at these odds.

Brian Giuffra: Patrick Reed +9000 (FanDuel) 

When Captain America is motivated, he plays his best golf, and right now, he’s motivated to force his way onto the U.S. Ryder Cup team. The only way that happens is by earning a spot, because you know he won’t get a captain's invite. The only chance he has to earn enough points is competing in majors. He was third at the Masters and has a strong history at Quail Hollow, gaining 2.45 shots total in 16 rounds there. Regardless of your opinion of Reed, he’s a gamer and should compete in another major. At 90/1, I’m willing to take a swing. 

First-Round Leader 

Iain MacMillan: Jon Rahm +3000 (FanDuel)

Jon Rahm seems to be the forgotten top name on the odds list this week. He’s a great course fit at Quail Hollow, and while he hasn’t won a LIV event this year, he has finished inside the Top 10 in seven of his eight starts. I don’t trust him to hang on for all four rounds, but he’s a strong look to be the first round leader at 30-1.

Matt Vincenzi: Cam Young +10000 (DraftKings)

Last week, Cam Young gained strokes on approach for the first time in 13 starts. He’s had a terrible year, but he still has the talent that made him one of the more exciting prospects in the sport. At a golf course that will favor players who are long off the tee, I can see Young getting off to a hot start before faltering over the weekend. 

John Schwarb: Patrick Cantlay +5000 (FanDuel)

I’m not ready to take the plunge on Cantlay winning a major yet, but his stats of 31st in strokes-gained off the tee and 10th in strokes-gained approach fit here; it’s just a matter of his putter heating up. But isn’t that the case for any FRL bet?

Brian Kirschner: Patrick Cantlay +5000 (FanDuel)

I am going to have to agree with John here on the Cantlay FRL bet. Cantlay showed he can contend in majors with a third at Pinehurst last year, another drive-intensive Bermuda golf course. He is currently hitting the ball great on approach and OTT. Cantlay gained in all major categories last week and is trending for another mix in a major. 

Cody Williams: Niklas Norgaard +11000 (FanDuel)

Despite all of the chalk I generally like this week, the history of the PGA Championship generally tells us that things can get wonky. So why not throw a dart on one of the biggest boppers in the field, Niklas Norgaard? He absolutely tattoos the golf ball off the tee, which should play at Quail Hollow, but the rest of his game is wildly inconsistent. Having said that, after a T5 last week in Myrtle Beach, this is a nice fit. I don’t think he’s a threat to win, but getting off to a hot start and leading the pack after 18 holes could play right into his overall volatility.

Brian Giuffra: Stephen Jaeger +11000 (FanDuel) 

Jaeger is a bomber who is also accurate on approach, ranking 47th on the PGA Tour in SG: App and SG: T2G. That he’s long off the tee will also surely help on this course, especially on Thursday, when the course still should be soft from all the rain in Charlotte. He’s 31st on Tour in Round 1 scoring average, too, which only enhances my belief he’ll get off to a strong start on a course that suits his game.

Prop Bet 

Iain MacMillan: Taylor Pendrith Top Canadian +350 (BetMGM)

Taylor Pendrith is a perfect fit for Quail Hollow. He’s one of the longest drivers of the golf ball in the field and he finished T10 at last year’s Wells Fargo Championship at this course. He’s the longest driver amongst all Canadian golfers in the field this week, which will give him a legitimate leg up on his fellow countrymen.

Matt Vincenzi: Joaquin Niemann Top 10 including ties +300 (DraftKings)

Joaquin Niemann has been criticized over the past few years for his lack of production in major championships, and perhaps rightfully so. He has been one of the best and most consistent performers on LIV, but is still waiting for his first top-10 finish in a major. This week, I believe this narrative will shift and he will contend at Quail Hollow and display his enormous talent on a major stage.

John Schwarb: Playoff Yes +400 (DraftKings)

Sports writers never want a playoff, so consider this a hedge of sorts, but with so many top players arriving in form, it’s hard to see someone pulling away this week. We got a playoff at Augusta, so why not here? I also feel like this bet is around +300 or +350 most weeks on Tour, so the price seems O.K.

Brian Kirschner: Rory Byson Duel Forecast +2500 (Bet365) 

Let's have some fun this week with a high payout prop. These two have shown they are going to put themselves in the mix at every major that requires distance off the tee. Both have amazing history here and are playing the best of their career. Not a single person would be surprised if these two were battling out Sunday. This bet will win if Rory and Bryson place first and second, in either order.

Cody Williams: Patrick Reed Top 20 including tied +225 (BetMGM)

I guess I’m just squad riding with the panel in a lot of ways, but I’m sticking to my guns with what I believe this week. Not only was Patrick Reed the runner-up at Quail Hollow in 2017, but he also registered two more Top 10s on the PGA Tour there in three starts before his eventual LIV departure. Since his solo third at Augusta, he’s also shown a sustained level of form with a T17 and T4 on LIV. He might not be the easiest guy to root for, but Reed’s history tells us to trust it when he’s at a venue where he feels comfortable, which this blatantly appears to be. 

Brian Giuffra: Patrick Reed Top 20 +260 (FanDuel) 

Reed was the runner-up at the PGA Championship when Thomas won in 2017. He’s playing outstanding golf right now and is motivated. Getting these odds on a hot player returning to a course where he’s got a strong history is enough for me. 

Winning Score 

• Iain MacMillan: -16
• Matt Vincenzi: -13
• John Schwarb: -11
• Brian Kirschner: -14
• Cody Williams: -12
• Brian Giuffra: -15

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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