Rays vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 28

The Yankees are favored at home on Monday.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler is an interesting prop target on Monday. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees have fallen off in the AL wild card race, and now they’re without Aaron Judge (elbow) for at least the next several days as he deals with a flexor strain. 

Despite that, New York is set as a favorite at many of the best betting sites on Monday against the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Once a contender in the AL East, the Rays have dropped four games in a row and seven of their last 10 to fall to 10 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the division. Tampa Bay is just .500 in the 2025 season, and it could end up being a seller at the trade deadline later this week.

New York will turn to youngster Cam Schlittler on the mound on Monday for this series opener, and he’ll be opposed by righty Drew Rasmussen, who has seen his workload decrease as the season has gone on.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this AL East clash on Monday. 

Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Rays +1.5 (-197)
• Yankees -1.5 (+160)

Moneyline

• Rays: +109
• Yankees: -133

Total

• 8.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Rays vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Tampa Bay: Drew Rasmussen (7-5, 2.93 ERA)
• New York: Cam Schlittler (1-0, 4.35 ERA)

Rays vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 28
• Time: 7:05 p.m. EST 
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): YES, FDSSUN
• Rays record: 53-53
• Yankees record: 57-48

Rays vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Cam Schlittler 2+ Walks Allowed (-150)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Yankees youngster may be a fade candidate against Tampa Bay: 

New York Yankees youngster Cam Schlittler will make his third start of his MLB career on Monday against the Tampa Bay Rays.

While Schlittler has given up 11 hits and five runs in 10.1 innings of work this season, the Yankees have to be excited about the righty and his power fastball. However, when it comes to control, the rookie has some issues to fix.

Through two starts, Schlittler has walked five batters (at least two in each game), yet he’s set at -150 to allow two or more walks to the Rays tonight.

Tampa Bay is actually in the bottom 10 in MLB in walks drawn this season, but Schlittler – like another Yankees youngster in Luis Gil – has struggled to avoid the free pass early in his career. I think this line is a steal on Monday night, especially if Schlittler works in to the sixth inning for the third consecutive start. 

Rays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

After spending the start of the season as a normal rotation piece for the Rays, Rasmussen has been limited to four innings or less in each of his last four starts, although he did throw 75 pitches in his last outing.

Rasmussen has a 150-inning limit in the 2025 season as he returns from the third major elbow surgery of his career. So, Tampa Bay has not used him in his usual workload over the last month. 

With the Rays trending towards missing the playoffs, it’s hard to see that changing, which likely means the team will lean on its bullpen (3.93 ERA this season) for the majority of tonight’s contest.

I have a hard time backing the Yankees without Judge in the lineup, but they are 2-0 with Schlittler on the mound this season.

At home, I think New York can take this series opener against a Rays team that has struggled mightily to close out July. 

Tampa Bay ranks just 23rd in MLB OPS and 23rd in team ERA over the last 15 days. Even with the Yankees struggling, they are still 14th in team OPS over that stretch. The pitching (5.88 ERA) has been the issue for New York, but Schittler has allowed just five runs over two starts.

At this short price, the Yankees are worth a look at home where they are 31-21 straight up this season. 

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-133 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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