Rays vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 29

The UNDER could be a great bet for Game 2 of this AL East series.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried is a solid prop target on Tuesday. / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Max Fried and the New York Yankees are aiming to even their series with the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday after they dropped Monday’s series opener 4-2 at Yankees Stadium.

Fried, who has dealt with a blister issue this month, has not been as effective as he was early in the season, posting a 6.52 ERA in four July starts.

Still, the best betting sites have the Yankees set as massive favorites at home in this matchup.

Tampa Bay is starting Joe Boyle (1.42 ERA), but this should be a bullpen game from the Rays, as Boyle has made just one start in five appearances this season, never going more than five innings. 

With the Yankees and Rays both seeing their playoff hopes dwindle ahead of the trade deadline, who should we bet on tonight?

I have a prediction for this game as well as a prop bet to consider for this AL East clash.   

Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line 

• Rays +1.5 (-126)
• Yankees -1.5 (+104)

Moneyline

• Rays: +158
• Yankees: -194

Total

• 8.5 (Over -120/Under -101)

Rays vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

• Tampa Bay: Joe Boyle (1-0, 1.42 ERA)
• New York: Max Fried (11-4, 2.62 ERA)

Rays vs. Yankees How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 29
• Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): TBS, YES, FDSSUN
• Rays record: 54-53
• Yankees record: 57-49

Rays vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Max Fried UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-145)

The Rays have struggled against Fried this season, mustering just three total hits in 14.2 innings against him.

While the Yankees ace has struggled this month, I think he’s in a great spot to bounce back against a Tampa Bay team that is just 20th in MLB in batting average against left-handed pitching.

Overall, Fried has allowed five or fewer hits in 11 of his 21 starts this season, and he has flirted with this number (allowing six hits in three straight starts) despite his effectiveness this month. I think he’s worth a look to go UNDER on Tuesday. 

Rays vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the UNDER is the play in the AL East battle: 

The New York Yankees dropped their series opener with the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday, scoring just two runs with Aaron Judge out of the lineup with a flexor strain.

Judge has carried the New York offense for much of the 2025 season, and there’s no doubt that this team is going to regress in some way without him.

So, on Tuesday, I’m leaning towards the UNDER for the Yankees’ Game 2 matchup with Tampa Bay.

The Rays are already one of the best UNDER teams in the league (61-43-3), hitting it at a 58.7 percent clip so far this season. New York has hit the under in 53.9 percent of its games.

On the bright side for Yankees fans that want to see their team win on Tuesday, Max Fried is on the mound for the 22nd time this season, and New York is 14-7 in his starts. Overall, Fried has given up three or fewer earned runs in 18 of his 21 outings in 2025.

The Rays will counter with Joe Boyle (1.42 ERA) in what should be a bullpen game. Tampa Bay has a solid bullpen ERA (3.88) and the group should be able to handle a weakened New York offense. 

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-101 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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