Sun vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 5

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Connecticut Sun-Phoenix Mercury matchup on Tuesday night.

The Connecticut Sun are underdogs on Tuesday. / David Butler II-Imagn Images

It’s been a rough 2025 season for the Connecticut Sun, as they’ve won just five games and are dead last in the standings in the W.

The Sun also may have a new home sooner rather than later, as they are expected to be moved to Boston after Boston Celtics minority governor Steve Pagliuca bought the franchise. 

On Tuesday, Connecticut is a double-digit underdog on the road against the Phoenix Mercury, who are clinging to the No. 4 spot in the WNBA standings. Phoenix is a half-game back of the Atlanta Dream for the No. 3 spot and a half-game ahead of the Indiana Fever for the No. 4 spot.

After star Satou Sabally (personal) missed the team’s win on Sunday, the Mercury are hoping to have her back in action for what should be an easy win against star forward Alyssa Thomas’ former team.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Tuesday’s action. 

Sun vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Sun +14.5 (-110)
• Mercury -14.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Sun: +800
• Mercury: -1350

Total

• 165.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Sun vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Aug. 5
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: PHX Arena
• How to Watch (TV): Arizona Family Sports, NBC Sports Boston
• Sun record: 5-22
• Mercury record: 17-11

Sun vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Sun Injury Report

• None to report

Mercury Injury Report

• Satou Sabally – day-to-day

Sun vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets 

Sun Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Kahleah Copper 2+ 3-Pointers Made (-106)

This season, star guard Kahleah Cooper is shooting 45.3 percent from beyond the arc, and she’s made at least two shots from deep in nine of her 12 games.

While Copper is averaging just 4.4 3-point attempts per game, I love the matchup for her on Tuesday night. Connecticut ranks 10th in opponent 3-point percentage and eighth in opponent 3s made per game. 

I expect Copper to hit multiple shots from deep for the 10th time in 2025.  

Sun vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I don’t mind betting on the Sun to cover in this matchup: 

The Sun have the worst record in the WNBA this season, but they’re also over .500 against the spread (14-13) entering this game with the Mercury.

After a strong start to the season against the number, Phoenix has slipped back to 15-13 against the spread, and I have a hard time trusting it to win by 15 or more points with the status of Satou Sabally (personal) up in the air.

The Mercury beat the Sun by just eight points earlier this season in CT, and with Marina Mabrey back in the lineup for Connecticut, the team has a higher ceiling offensively.

Now, the Sun have a net rating of -15.4 this season, so they are prone to getting blown out. However, despite a 17-11 record, Phoenix ranks just sixth in the W in net rating. I’m not totally sold on it running away with this matchup – even at home – on Tuesday. 

Pick: Sun +14.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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