Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets and Props (How to Bet Maple Leafs vs. Rangers)

Iain MacMillan | Feb 28, 2025

The Rangers are home underdogs to the Maple Leafs on Friday night. / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Mark Stone had two shots in the first five minutes of the Golden Knights' win against the Blackhawks on Thursday night. Had he recorded just one more shot for the rest of the game, we would've completed the 3-0 sweep with my Thursday picks. Instead, we'll have to settle for a 2-1 night, cashing in on the OVER between the Oilers and Panthers as well as the Blues as +140 underdogs to the Capitals.

We move on to Friday night in a short but fun slate, featuring an Eastern Conference showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers. Let's dive into my best side, total, and prop bet as we try to start the weekend on a profitable note.

• Season-to-date record: 115-116-7 (-8.72 units)

Best NHL Bets and Props Tonight

• Rangers +102 vs. Maple Leafs via FanDuel
• Kings vs. Stars OVER 5.5 (-102) via BetMGM
• Martin Necas Anytime Goal Scorer (+200) via BetMGM

Maple Leafs vs. Rangers Prediction

Tonight's marquee matchup between the Maple Leafs and the Rangers is between an overperforming and an underperforming team. With the latter set as a home underdog, I will take a shot on the Rangers.

While the two teams have wildly different records, their underlying metrics are more similar than expected. For example, in their last 25 games, the Rangers actually outrank the Maple Leafs in 5-on-5 expected goal percentage, with New York coming in at 19th in the NHL and Toronto two spots behind them at 21st.

One of the Rangers' biggest shortcomings in the first half of the season was their inability to find the back of the net. Lately, we've seen some positive regression in that area. Over their last 10 games, they rank seventh in the league in shooting percentage, scoring on 12.31% of their shots on goal.

I still view the Rangers as buy-low candidates, and tonight could be a good spot to back them as home 'dogs.

Pick: Rangers +102 via FanDuel

Kings vs. Stars Prediction

The Dallas Stars were once a defense-first team that dominated in their own end. They have slowly gotten away from that style of hockey and enter tonight with an expected goals against of 3.44 per 60 minutes over their last 10 games, the seventh-highest mark in the NHL. Their goaltending has saved them in that stretch, but they still have an average combined goals of 6.93 per 60 minutes of play.

It's been a similar story for the Los Angeles Kings. Through the first few months of the season, they were a top-three defensive team. Now, they're eighth in expected goals against in their last 25 games and 15th in that stat in their last 10 games.

If this game had taken place in December, I wouldn't have hesitated to take the UNDER. Whether it's been a change in scheme or a simple regression of their defensive play, these two teams aren't what they used to be. With the total at 5.5 tonight, the OVER is the play.

Pick: OVER 5.5 (-102) via BetMGM

Wild vs. Avalanche Player Prop

Martin Neceas has fit in seamlessly with the Colorado Avalanche since being acquired by them in late January. He has been slotted into the Avs' top-line and No. 1 powerplay unit alongside Nathan MacKinnon and has played his best hockey of his career in that time frame.

He has 12 points in his first 11 games with Colorado, and now he and the Avalanche get to host a Minnesota Wild team that has allowed 31.65 shots on goal per 60 minutes of play over their last 25 games, the third highest mark in the league. He should get plenty of opportunities to find the back of the net tonight which makes him a great anytime goal scorer option at 2-1 odds.

Pick: Martin Necas Anytime Goal (+200) via BetMGM

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!