Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Lynx-Aces, Alyssa Thomas, Wings-Valkyries)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA action on Thursday, Sept. 4.

Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas is an elite prop target on Thursday. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

A few huge matchups for playoff positioning — and a potential WNBA Finals preview — take place on Thursday night.

The Minnesota Lynx have clinched the No. 1 seed in the W, but they’ll take on the Las Vegas Aces, who have thrust themselves into title contention by winning 12 games in a row.

This matchup could end up being our Finals matchup later this year, but there is still a lot that could change.

For example, after beating the Indiana Fever on Tuesday, the Phoenix Mercury are in the mix for the No. 2 seed in the W and face a non-playoff team in the Washington Mystics on Thursday.

The third matchup on Thursday features the Golden State Valkyries, who have won four in a row and are in the mix for a playoff spot ahead of their game against the Dallas Wings. 

There’s a ton to consider in the betting market for these games, and I have a few plays to consider for this loaded Thursday night slate.

Let’s dive into the odds for each of these bets on Sept. 4! 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 63-66-2 (-3.38 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 147-142-2 (+1.08 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-112) vs. Minnesota Lynx
• Golden State Valkyries -9 (-112) vs. Dallas Wings
• Alyssa Thomas 33+ Points, Rebounds and Assist (-130)

Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-112) vs. Minnesota Lynx

The Aces have the best net rating in the WNBA during this 12-game winning streak (+13.1), but the Lynx are right behind them at +13.0. 

So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that this is expected to be a close game on Thursday night.

However, I do think there is a serious motivation factor here, especially with DiJonai Carrington banged up and the Lynx making the move to sit Kayla McBride in their last game. 

Minnesota, for all intents and purposes, has nothing to play for since it has already locked up the No. 1 seed in the league. So, it may take some players out of the lineup – or limit their minutes – down the stretch of the season.

With the Aces rolling, it may not be worth risking an injury in a hard-fought regular season game when the focus for the Lynx should be getting back to the Finals. Meanwhile, Las Vegas has a ton to play for, as it could still earn the No. 2 seed in the league.

The Aces are also elite at home this season, going 14-5 straight up. It’s very rare that you’ll see me bet against the Lynx, but I think this matchup lines up well for A’ja Wilson and company to continue their winning streak. 

Golden State Valkyries -9 (-112) vs. Dallas Wings

The Valkyries and Wings met late last month with Golden State picking up a nine-point win on the road, and I think the Valkyries are a no-brainer bet at home on Thursday.

Golden State is 1307 straight up at home and 25-14-1 against the spread overall this season, while the Wings have been arguably the worst team in the league, especially over their last 10 games.

Dallas is just 1-9 in its last 10 games and has lost eight in a row, slipping to well under .500 against the spread. The Wings have a net rating of -15.6 over their last 12 games – the worst mark in the WNBA – and they’ve already lost some key players to injury, including Arike Ogunbowale and JJ Quinerly.

Even if Paige Bueckers has a huge game, it may not be enough for a Dallas team that has the worst defensive rating in the WNBA.

After Golden State held New York to just 58 points on Tuesday, I think the Valkyries are in a prime spot to pick up a convincing win against one of the worst teams in the WNBA. 

Alyssa Thomas 33+ Points, Rebounds and Assist (-130)

Since the All-Star break, Phoenix Mercury star Alyssa Thomas has been on another level.

In 18 games, Thomas is averaging 16.7 points, 10.4 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game while shooting 56.1 percent from the field to lead Phoenix into the conversation for the No. 2 seed in the standings.

Thomas does it all, as she averages 8.9 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game for the entire 2025 season. In her last meeting with the Washington Mystics, Thomas had a huge game, finishing with 27 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists.

With Washington’s season in the tank due to a lengthy losing streak, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Thomas stuff the stat sheet again on Thursday.

Since the break, the MVP candidate has 11 games with 33 or more PRA. She’s a great bet to continue this stretch against the No. 9 defense in the WNBA.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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