Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sabrina Ionescu, Liberty, Lynx, Mercury)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA action on Thursday, Aug. 28.

The Minnesota Lynx and forward Napheesa Collier are favored on Aug. 28. / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

A massive three-game slate in the WNBA takes place on Thursday night, as multiple playoff-bound teams are aiming to improve their spot in the standings.

The top-seeded Minnesota Lynx have already clinched a playoff spot, but they’ll play a hungry Seattle Storm squad that slipped to eighth in the standings with a loss to the Indiana Fever on Tuesday night. Seattle has just a 1.5-game cushion on the final playoff spot with five games to play.

In addition to those two teams – that could match up in the first round of the playoffs – the New York Liberty are in action against the Washington Mystics and the Phoenix Mercury take on the Chicago Sky. 

New York picked up a win earlier this week with Breanne Stewart returning from a knee injury, but it has some work to do if it wants to finish with a top-four seed in the W. Meanwhile, the Mercury are coming off an impressive road win over the Los Angeles Sparks on Tuesday and are double-digit favorites at home against the Sky.

I have a pair of bets I’m placing for these matchups, including a three-team teaser that to encapsulate every game on Aug. 28.  

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 58-62 (-2.52 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 142-137 (+1.95 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Liberty-Lynx-Mercury 8-Point Teaser (-120)
• Sabrina Ionescu UNDER 16.5 Points (-110)

Liberty-Lynx-Mercury 8-Point Teaser (-120)

A little teaser to start the night?

This three-team, eight-point teaser moves the spread down in every game with the Liberty and Mercury set as double-digit favorites. While I actually don’t mind all three teams that are set as favorites in this one, this teaser makes it a little easier for each to cover on Thursday night. 

Let’s dive into the reasoning behind each pick. 

New York Liberty -4.5 

The Liberty have struggled at times against the spread this season, going 13-23-2 overall, but they are an elite team at home, winning 15 of their 20 games outright.

With Stewart back in action and Natasha Cloud (nose) potentially returning after missing Tuesday’s game, the Liberty could be at full strength for the first time in weeks.

New York was the No. 2 seed for most of the season before Stewie went down with her knee injury, and it still ranks in the top five in the W in offensive, defensive and net rating.

Meanwhile, the Mystics are trending in the wrong direction as losers of four straight. Not only is Washington just 3-7 in its last 10 games, but it has a net rating of -4.8 during that stretch. 

For a team that is 11th in offensive rating this season, trading leading scorer Brittney Sykes at the deadline was a sign that Washington does not care about making the playoffs in 2025. 

I think the Liberty will be able to run away with this matchup at home.  

Minnesota Lynx -0.5

There hasn’t been a team in the WNBA that’s better at home than the Lynx, as they’ve gone 18-1 straight up in 19 games this season.

Napheesa Collier (ankle) returned to the lineup and promptly dropped 32 points, nine rebounds and two assists in a win over the Indiana Fever, and the Lynx remain the No. 1 team in the W in record, net rating, offensive rating, defensive rating and average point differential.

So, I don’t mind laying any number with them at home against a Seattle team that lost by 20 in Indiana on Tuesday and is 1-2 against Minnesota this season.

The Storm are just 4-6 in their last 10 games and have a net rating of +2.8 this season, which is well below the Lynx (+13.0).

Phoenix Mercury -4.5 

The Mercury are an impressive 12-6 at home this season, and I love them in this matchup against the Sky, who are just 4-13 straight up on the road.

Chicago has just nine wins this season and ranks last in net rating, last in defensive rating and 12th in offensive rating. This is a recipe for disaster for Angel Reese and company, as the Mercury are one of the best defensive teams in the league, ranking third in defensive rating and fourth in opponent points per game.

Phoenix is also 20-16-1 against the spread while the Sky are 16-21 despite constantly being set as double-digit underdogs. 

So far this season, the Mercury have wins by five (at home), 21 (on the road) and 16 (on the road) against Chicago. With a top-four seed up in the air, I expect Phoenix to dominate this matchup with the Sky trending in the wrong direction as losers of eight of their last 10. 

Sabrina Ionescu UNDER 16.5 Points (-110)

Sabrina Ionescu is one of the best shooters in the WNBA, but she’s really struggled in the month of August, especially over her last nine games.

The star guard has cleared 16.5 points just two times over this nine-game stretch despite taking over 13 shots per game. Her efficiency has been the biggest issue, as Ionescu is knocking down just 33.9 percent of her shots from the field and 25.9 percent of her attempts from 3 over this stretch.

Overall, the Liberty star is shooting just 40.0 percent from the field and 30.3 percent from deep in 2025.

With Stewart back, there may be a few less shots from Ionescu in the Liberty offense, and she finished with just 11 points on 3-of-7 shooting in her last game (Stewart’s return). 

Until Ionescu shows that she’s out of her shooting slump, she’s a risky bet at this number.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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