WNBA MVP Odds at All-Star Break (Napheesa Collier Favored, Alyssa Thomas Surging)

Breaking down the WNBA MVP odds for the 2025 season with the league at the All-Star break.

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier is the favorite to win MVP. / Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The halfway point of the 2025 WNBA season is upon us, and the MVP market is signaling that one player has a real chance to win this award.

Minnesota Lynx star forward Napheesa Collier is a massive favorite in the odds at -700 (at DraftKings), well ahead of the rest of the competition.

Earlier this season, Indiana Fever star Caitlin Clark was in the mix for WNBA MVP, but injuries and poor shooting have all but knocked her out of this race.

Collier’s case has been made even stronger because she’s on the best team in the league, as the Lynx have followed up last season’s trip to the WNBA Finals by winning 20 of their 24 regular-season games.

Behind her, Phoenix Mercury star Alyssa Thomas has made a huge push as of late, as she’s carried Phoenix in recent weeks with Satou Sabally and Kaylah Copper sidelined by injuries.

Phoenix is third in the WNBA standings, and Thomas is flirting with a triple-double on a nightly basis, but can she catch Collier?

The WNBA MVP has been decided (at least in the betting market) pretty early in recent seasons, as A’ja Wilson cruised to the award in the 2024 campaign.

Collier appears to be on a similar path, especially if the Lynx hold on to the No. 1 seed in the league.

Here’s a breakdown of this futures market at the All-Star break. 

2025 WNBA MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Napheesa Collier: -700
• Alyssa Thomas: +700
• Breanna Stewart: +2000
• A’ja Wilson: +6000
• Caitlin Clark: +7000
• Sabrina Ionescu: +25000
• Angel Reese: +25000
• Allisha Gray: +25000
• Paige Bueckers: +30000

Napheesa Collier

In 21 games this season, Collier is averaging 23.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.6 blocks per game while shooting 51.7 percent from the field and 34.2 percent from beyond the arc. 

With Minnesota holding a 3.5-game cushion atop the WNBA standings, it’s hard to pick anyone but Collier to win the MVP this season.

Not only has the UConn product set a career-high in points per game to this point, but she’s continued to be an elite force on defense after winning the Defensive Player of the Year award in the 2024 season. 

Prior to Clark going down with a groin injury, Collier and the Fever guard were viewed as the top candidates in this market. Now, at -700, Collier has an implied probability of 87.5 percent to win her first MVP.

After finishing fourth in the MVP voting in the 2023 season and second last season, Collier is the rightful favorite in 2025. 

Alyssa Thomas

Thomas has yet to win an MVP in her storied career, but she’s making a really great case this season – especially since Sabally and Copper went down.

The Mercury forward is averaging 15.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game this season while shooting 51.7 percent from the field.

Thomas isn’t as impactful on the defensive end at this stage in her career, but she is the engine to the Mercury offense (fitting since her nickname is The Engine), setting up her teammates with her elite passing.

Phoenix is the No. 3 seed in the W, and it just lost to the Lynx on Wednesday, but if the Mercury have a huge second half, there is a path for Thomas to win MVP. The Mercury would likely need to overtake the Lynx in the standings, but that’s not impossible. 

However, there’s a chance some of Thomas’ scoring or on-ball production takes a hit once Copper and Sabally return. Regardless, she’s the only true candidate worth betting on in this market behind Collier.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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