Yankees vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, Sept. 15

The Yankees are road favorites on Monday.

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is a great prop target on Monday. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The AL East division lead may be out of reach for the New York Yankees, who are four games back of the Toronto Blue Jays with 13 games to play, but New York does hold the top wild card spot in the AL.

After a loss on Sunday Night Baseball to the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees are set as major road favorites at the best betting sites against the Minnesota Twins on Monday. 

Minnesota has struggled since selling off some pieces at the trade deadline, as it’s 19 games under .500 and has lost seven of its last 10 heading into this early-week series. 

Carlos Rodon (3.11 ERA) is on the mound for New York against the Twins’ Simeon Woods Richardson (4.58 ERA).

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this series opener. 

Yankees vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (-118)
• Twins +1.5 (-103)

Moneyline

• Yankees: -194
• Twins: +158

Total

• 9 (Over -101/Under -121)

Yankees vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

• New York: Carlos Rodon (16-8, 3.11 ERA)
• Minnesota: Simeon Woods Richardson (6-4, 4.58 ERA)

Yankees vs. Twins How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Sept. 15
• Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Field
• How to Watch (TV): MNNT, YES
• Yankees record: 83-66
• Twins record: 65-84

Yankees vs. Twins Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+202)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Judge is a great bet to stay hot on Monday:

Judge hit another home run on Sunday night against the Boston Red Sox, pushing his season-long total to 48 entering Monday’s matchup with the Minnesota Twins.

Over the last week, Judge is hitting .429 with five home runs and nine hits, and he’s homered 11 times over the last 28 days (26 games).

On Monday, the MVP candidate will take on Twins righty Simeon Woods Richardson, who enters this start with a 4.58 ERA and 16 home runs allowed in 20 appearances in 2025. 

Judge has crushed right-handed pitching this season, posting a .323 batting average, 1.086 OPS and 34 home runs. He’s a great bet to keep this hot streak going on Monday.

Yankees vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Since the All-Star break, Carlos Rodon has a 3.18 ERA in 10 starts, leading the Yankees to a 7-3 record in those outings.

I love the lefty in this matchup against a Minnesota team that has been downright awful since the trade deadline, posting a record of 14-26 since the start of August.

Woods Richardson (4.58 ERA) has a pretty average advanced profile, posting an expected ERA of 4.30 while ranking in the seventh percentile in barrel percentage. 

The New York offense has scored the most runs in MLB, and I expect it to dominate this Twins team that has gone in the tank over the second half of the regular season. The Yankees have not been great on the run line (70-79 this season), but the Twins are even worse at 69-80 despite being set as underdogs in many more games than New York.

I’ll back the Yankees to win by two or more with Rodon on the mound.  

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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