College Football Playoff Bracket Projections After Week 5: Biggest Risers From Wild Weekend

After Saturday’s packed slate, Sports Illustrated updates how playoff contenders fared and what each major result means to the CFP race.

Oregon running back Jordon Davison (0) reacts after scoring a touchdown against Penn State. / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Week 5 in college football had some massive matchups that shook up the College Football Playoff race. We saw one CFP projected team fall Friday, as Virginia beat Florida State in double overtime, and more followed on Saturday. Here’s everything you need to know about the CFP after Saturday’s packed slate. Who’s in, who’s out? Here’s the bracket:

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College Football Playoff Projected Rankings

1. Ohio State
2. Miami
3. Ole Miss
4. Oregon
5. Texas A&M
6. Texas Tech
7. Alabama
8. Georgia
9. Indiana
10. Penn State
11. Oklahoma
12. Tulane

First Round

• No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas A&M
• No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Texas Tech
• No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Alabama
• No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia

Quarterfinals

• Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Oregon vs. winner of No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas A&M
• Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Ole Miss vs. winner of No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Texas Tech
• Orange Bowl: No. 2 Miami vs. winner of No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Alabama
• Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia

Update at 12:30 a.m. Sunday ET:

This was hyped up as one of the best weekends of the college football season so far, and did it ever live up to that kind of reputation, with several thrilling prime-time games leading to a significantly altered playoff picture thanks to upsets in Happy Valley and Athens. 

Perhaps the biggest takeaway is that Oregon is for real and has a serious shot at receiving another first-round bye and a quarterfinal appearance based on what it showed in beating Penn State in double overtime. The Ducks have a host of other opportunities to add to their résumé and stack Top 25 wins, including what might be an early play-in game for the Big Ten title game in two weeks at home against Indiana. It may still be tough to move them ahead of Ohio State at this point given the way the Buckeyes defense has shown no drop off from last season, but a third meeting between the budding league powers seems likely at this point.

As for the Nittany Lions, they missed out on a big opportunity to pad their résumé and put to bed that James Franklin narrative in big games. They still have to play the Hoosiers and have that trip to Columbus, Ohio, looming as well. It’s not foolish to think SI’s preseason No. 1 pick is in danger of missing out on the playoff as it doesn’t have many shots at adding quality wins. Given the weak nonconference, a 10-2 Penn State could be in danger of missing out on the CFP altogether. 

Finally, the SEC may have seen the biggest shake-up to its pecking order after Saturday. Alabama is back in the running to make the CFP after knocking off Georgia. It also has an inside track to get to Atlanta with that tiebreaker over Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs. Georgia is far from eliminated from the postseason picture, but will not have much margin with Ole Miss, Texas and a somehow still undefeated Georgia Tech on the upcoming schedule.

Update at 7:30 p.m. ET:

The big adjustment comes out of the SEC, which has one major prime-time matchup still to play in Alabama-Georgia but had several teams shake up their positioning. Texas A&M is off to its best start since 2016 after dispatching Auburn and continues to stack up quality win after quality win. While it continues to inch closer to potentially getting a bye straight to the Cotton Bowl, Ole Miss might be the biggest winner from the weekend after knocking off LSU and vaulting into the projected CFP field for the first time. That loss doesn’t completely rule out the Tigers making the playoff either so it appears both Lane Kiffin and his daughter can celebrate after the game in Oxford, Miss.

Update at 3 p.m. ET:

It took fewer than 12 hours for the ACC to go from three potential playoff teams down to just one thanks to lifeless performances from Florida State at Virginia and Georgia Tech against Wake Forest. Brent Key’s team had a very favorable path to go to Georgia at the end of the season undefeated but will come nowhere close to that if they struggle with unranked foes like they did Saturday afternoon. The parting of the seas by some contenders opens up another avenue for a Big Ten team like Indiana, whose best win over Illinois looks even better after the Illini knocked off USC in the final minute. 

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No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas A&M

There’s a narrow path, but a very doable one, for the Aggies to take a loss in SEC play, miss out on the conference title game, but still snag a bye straight to a very favorable location at the Cotton Bowl. 

No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Texas Tech

One of the sneaky big winners from Saturday was the Red Raiders, who continue to look like the class of the Big 12 after a weekend that they had off. They are poised to keep climbing up the rankings if they take care of business. 

No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Alabama

Kalen DeBoer finally vanquished some doubts about winning on the road in the SEC and underscored his ability to punch up at higher-ranked teams. The win over Georgia doesn’t completely erase the loss to Florida State, but it sure helps overcome it by quite a bit.

No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia

The Hoosiers survived the trip to Iowa City, but credit Curt Cignetti for telling the truth when he remarked that the Hawkeyes would be a much stiffer test than what they faced last week. Suddenly, that trip to Oregon after a bye might end up being the type of game that could determine how high Indiana rises in the CFP rankings. 

Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Oregon

Dan Lanning still hasn’t lost in the regular season since moving to the Big Ten. The crazy thing is his current team might have a higher upside than the one that lost that Rose Bowl last year.

Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Ole Miss

Lane Kiffin, SEC favorite? It’s getting close to that point after the win over LSU, but can’t quite be etched in stone yet with road games at Georgia and at Oklahoma back to back in a few weeks. Maybe more interesting for the Rebels is what they are going to do at quarterback if Austin Simmons finally gets healthy.

Orange Bowl: No. 2 Miami

The Hurricanes are sitting pretty on their off week though next week’s matchup in Tallahassee loses a little bit of luster.

Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State

So much for a difficult road start for the Buckeyes, who made all those red-clad fans at Husky Stadium feel quite at home in a trip to the Pacific Northwest that went much smoother than the one last year.

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