Forde-Yard Dash: After Week 1 Debacles, Who Needs a New Approach?
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Florida State and LSU proved that wildly sloppy and wildly entertaining can coexist:
MORE DASH: Successful Debuts | A Better CFP | QB Matchups
SECOND QUARTER
MAYBE IT’S TIME FOR A FEW BREAKUPS
Week 1 showed us that loyalty to a style of play, a coach or a hiring philosophy doesn’t always produce optimal results. Sometimes, the ties run too deep.
Start with Iowa (11), the most stubborn program in the nation. The Hawkeyes set the sport back several decades with a World War I–era offensive performance against South Dakota State. They won with seven the hard way—two safeties and one field goal—to wheeze past an FCS opponent in front of 69,250 stultified fans who have seen this black-and-white film before.
“I saw a lot of good things out there,” coach Kirk Ferentz (12) said, causing everyone to wonder whether he had been hallucinating for three hours.
Ferentz has won 191 career games largely by playing this way—careful, conservative, addicted to field position and completely unbothered by a lack of style points. (Or nearly any real points, in this instance.) His son Brian is the coordinator dialing up plays for the third-worst offense in the nation after one week: 166 total yards, 2.72 yards per play.
The only team that has punted 10 times in a single game this season and won? You guessed it. Iowa.
Pity the poor folks at Backpocket Brewing in Iowa City, who threw a watch party for the game and advertised free Jell-O shots for every Iowa touchdown. They spent the rest of the weekend swimming in surplus Jell-O.
The Ferentz and Ferentz brain trust remain committed to fifth-year senior quarterback Spencer Petras, despite the fact he turned in his seventh straight statistically brutal performance dating back to the middle of last season. Since Iowa beat Penn State to start 6–0 in 2021, Petras has thrown one touchdown pass and eight interceptions. He played the entire game Saturday and presumably will start against rival Iowa State this week.
“I still have a lot of confidence in him,” Kirk Ferentz said. “I think the noise on the outside is probably a lot louder than it is inside. I have total confidence. He practices well. He’s a great young guy. We’ll be better next week.”
The Hawkeyes almost certainly will be better—that’s how they roll. But if they want to defend their Big Ten West title they’re going to have to embrace a more modern offensive approach—and perhaps a new starting QB.
Somewhere near the opposite end of the spectrum from Iowa sits Purdue (13). The Boilermakers can be too pass-intensive, too freewheeling, for their own good. Take their come-from-ahead loss to Penn State last Thursday.
Most good teams are able to run the ball when the opposition knows they need to run the ball. This has never been a strength under coach Jeff Brohm, but he recognizes the need for a ground game and said as much at Big Ten media days in July. It’s a vital component to holding leads and finishing games.
Then he abandoned any pretense of running in the final possessions while trying to protect a three-point lead against the Nittany Lions. In two possessions up 31–28, Purdue called 14 passes and one run. The two drives consumed less than three minutes and 50 seconds, giving Penn State ample time to go 80 yards for the winning score.
Purdue is always going to be pass-first under Brohm—the Boilers were essentially a 40–60 run-pass team the previous three seasons. Through one game this year, they’re running it 28% of the time. At least a semblance of balance could be helpful.
At North Carolina (14), Mack Brown has tried to re-run an old favorite by hiring Gene Chizik (15) as his defensive coordinator in January. The two had success together at Texas, including winning the 2005 national championship, but that was a long time ago.
Mack and Gene 2.0 are presiding over the worst defense in the Atlantic Coast Conference through two games, surrendering 42.5 points and 492 yards per game, and the Tar Heels haven’t yet faced a Power 5 opponent. The Heels gave up a scarcely believable 40 points in the fourth quarter of a 63–61 freak-show victory over Appalachian State.
Jay Bateman was not retained as defensive coordinator after North Carolina gave up 32.1 points and 418 yards per game last year. Those numbers don’t look as bad right now.
At Navy (16), the decline seems to be accelerating for coach Ken Niumatalolo. He’s had a great career at the school, winning 105 games over 14 seasons, but the slide is real. Three of the previous four seasons ended with losing records, including a 7–15 mark in 2020 and ’21.
Now the Midshipmen have begun the 2022 season with a 14–7 upset loss to Delaware, one of just two FBS teams to lose to an FCS opponent thus far this season. The Blue Hens led 14–0 before Navy mounted its only touchdown drive of the game late in the third quarter. It was a continuation of two seasons of offensive struggle.
The Mids ran for 184 yards, just 2.9 per carry—and if Navy can’t run, Navy can’t win. Niumatalolo demoted offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper last year, then returned him to that job this year, and the early returns are not good with harder games to come.
At Boise State (17), the tradition of hiring from within the family tree might have hit a dead branch.
When Dirk Koetter left for Arizona State after elevating the program, he was replaced by his offensive coordinator, Dan Hawkins. When Hawkins left for Colorado in 2006, the quick (and smart) decision was to replace him with OC Chris Petersen. He took the program to its greatest heights, then was replaced by his former OC, Bryan Harsin, who had spent two seasons as an assistant at Texas and one as head coach at Arkansas State before returning. Harsin’s move to Auburn was followed by the hiring of his old defensive coordinator, Andy Avalos, who played at Boise under Hawkins and spent ’12–18 on the Broncos’ staff before going to Oregon for two years.
In Avalos’s debut season last year, Boise went 7–5—its worst mark this century. Then the Broncos opened the ’22 season by being trucked at Oregon State. The final score was 34–17, but it was 24–0 at halftime and never in doubt. Boise had five turnovers and gave up 470 yards to the Beavers.
For a program trying to present itself as an attractive expansion option to the Pac-12, things are trending the wrong way.
At Memphis (18), the trend of hiring rookie head coaches has hit a rough patch. From Larry Porter to Justin Fuente to Mike Norvell, the trajectory was upward. But now Ryan Silverfield has turned the arrow down.
The former Norvell assistant went 8–3 his first year, then backtracked to 6–6 in 2021—including five losses as a favorite. Year 3 began with a 49–23 walloping from Mississippi State—a team the Tigers beat last year. Like Boise, Memphis is an aspirational program looking for a conference upgrade (ideally to the Big 12, like fellow AAC programs Cincinnati, UCF and Houston). Like Boise, Memphis is struggling at an inopportune time.
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In the ACC (19), there has long been a willingness to play non–Power 5 opponents on the road. This year the ACC has scheduled 10 such games, while no other P5 league has scheduled more than three. While laudable in terms of being willing to step out of the usual home cocoon—and fiscally responsible in terms of avoiding big payouts for guarantee games—it is a risk.
Virginia Tech found that out at Old Dominion on Friday, as noted in the Dash First Quarter. Two others were fortunate to win Saturday: the previously mentioned North Carolina escape at Appalachian State, and North Carolina State (20) eked out a one-point win at East Carolina. The ranked Wolfpack only got out of Greenville without a loss, because the Pirates’ kicker missed both an extra point and a field goal in the final three minutes.
Three ACC teams take on the risk this week: Louisville at UCF on Friday, a short turnaround from a Saturday-night road loss to Syracuse; North Carolina at Georgia State, marking a truly weird two-game road stretch for the Heels; and Syracuse at Connecticut.
Later road games against non-P5 opponents: Pittsburgh at Western Michigan on Sept. 17; Georgia Tech at UCF on Sept. 24; Boston College at UConn on Oct. 29; and Virginia Tech at Liberty on Nov. 19. Best be ready.
MORE DASH: Successful Debuts | A Better CFP | QB Matchups
