SI’s Top 10: Why USC Holds Most of the Remaining Cards in the CFP Race
With rivalry week and the regular season in the rear view, it’s now time for the postseason and a look at how things stack up for the most important postseason race. Championship weekend is never devoid of intrigue, but there is a pretty chalky way for things to play out next weekend.
You would have to imagine these three teams will most likely be in the College Football Playoff no matter what: Georgia, Michigan and TCU.
All three teams are undefeated (12-0), and even if they lose in their conference title games, they probably won’t fall out of the running. LSU forfeited its faint top-4 hopes after getting crushed by Texas A&M, 38–23, on Saturday night.
One team that absolutely needs to win its conference title game is USC. The Trojans control their own playoff destiny and need to win the Pac-12 championship to stay out of the two-loss column. With a conference championship title, they will have an edge over Ohio State, which will not appear in the Big Ten title game after its loss to Michigan earlier on Saturday.
Things could get really intriguing—if, and only if, USC loses next week—because of who it would bring into the picture:
- 11-1 Ohio State
- 10-2 Alabama
- 11-2 USC
- 10-2 Tennessee
- 11-2 Clemson (if they win the ACC championship)
This could be the only way Ohio State gets back into the final four without a conference championship or division championship, just like they did in 2016. But considering how the Buckeyes lost to Michigan, and that being the lasting impression for the committee, it’s possible one of those two-loss teams could vault over Ohio State—the first time a two-loss team would make the College Football Playoff.
But the fulcrum this rests on is all USC. For now, here is our latest Top 10:
QB Caleb Williams and USC are now headed to next weekend’s Pac-12 Championship game.
Mark J. Terrill/AP
1. Georgia (12-0)
This week: Beat Georgia Tech, 37–14.
Next week: LSU in the SEC Championship.
Georgia spent the first half more or less getting outplayed by its in-state rivals, but, yet again, the Dawgs proved they indeed run the state and unquestionably remain the nation’s No. 1 team. Even though Georgia’s passing game didn’t really show up, its defense answered the call as usual.
2. Michigan (12-0)
This week: Beat Ohio State, 45–23.
Next week: Purdue in the Big Ten Championship.
Just like last year, Michigan hit big plays through the air in the first half against an Ohio State defense that was content to put its defensive backs on islands. In the second half, Michigan hit massive running plays and ran away from the game late to notch a second straight win in this epic rivalry. Both teams built their seasons around this game and it can be a shock to the system to the one that loses it. The Buckeyes finally ran into an opponent they just couldn’t pass all into oblivion.
3. TCU (12-0)
This week: Beat Iowa State, 62–14.
Next week: Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship.
How’s that for your trap game? The Horned Frogs aren’t getting gigged by any trap games. This game was basically over at the end of the first quarter, as TCU wasted no time burying their visitors. Now, the conference title game beckons and the ghosts of 2014 can finally be put to bed.
4. USC (11-1)
This week: Beat Notre Dame, 38–27.
Next week: Pac-12 Championship.
Caleb Williams, welcome to your Heisman Trophy Moment. The Heisman is about platforms as much as it is about stats, and Williams has both. He will be the only show in town Friday night at the Pac-12 title game in Las Vegas, and he already has a hand on the trophy’s famous stiff-arming move. He can get his other on the trophy, and much more, as the Trojans look to continue the stellar season.
5. Alabama (10-2)
This week: Beat Auburn, 49–27.
Next week: Idle.
What an end to Bryce Young’s career at Alabama—to vanquish a rival at Bryant Denny Stadium and place himself in a unique position in Tide lore. No, he likely will not have won a national championship as a starting quarterback, but his bonkers stat lines and Houdini-like escapism to extend plays means he will be considered one of Bama’s best.
6. Penn State (10-2)
This week: Beat Michigan State, 35–16.
Next week: Idle.
It’s a bit frustrating for the Nittany Lions to play almost exactly to their ceiling under coach James Franklin. They were often entertaining and dominant in Big Ten competition … except for those two divisional games they can’t seem to sweep. It’s tough to beat Michigan and Ohio State in the same year. Perhaps, one year, they will do so. For now, it will be another New Year’s Six berth and a good season that doesn’t quite get them to a championship height.
7. Ohio State (11-1)
This week: Lost to Michigan, 45–23.
Next week: Idle.
There is no way to sugarcoat it—the Buckeyes got absolutely dominated by rival Michigan at home in the game’s biggest regular-season contest. There is an outside Playoff chance for the Buckeyes, but they don’t control their own destiny anymore.
8. Tennessee (10-2)
This week: Beat Vanderbilt, 56–0.
Next week: Idle.
The Vols may have taken a tremendous step back against South Carolina, but what matters is they regained some mojo and ended the season on the right note with a thumping victory against their in-state foe. We will remember this as a tremendous season for Tennessee, even if it fell short of the ultimate goal that seemed in its reach a few weeks back when the Vols were the CFP’s No. 1 team.
9. Florida State (9-3)
This week: Beat Florida, 45–38.
Next week: Idle.
Florida State put a capper on a revitalized season with a slugfest victory against Florida on Friday night. Jordan Travis’s heroics lifted FSU and broke a losing streak in the rivalry showdown. FSU had an ignominious start to the season against LSU, but it ends it on a high note.
10. Kansas State (9-3)
This week: Beat Kansas, 47–27.
Next week: TCU in the Big 12 Championship.
These Powercats do not quit, reaching their first conference title game since 2003 behind backup quarterback Jalon Daniels. Chris Klieman’s ability to keep the Wildcats humming at, or near, the heights of former coach Bill Snyder is admirable. Now, Kansas State will try to play the ultimate spoiler to TCU’s dreams of a perfect season and avenge its loss against the Horned Frogs earlier in the season.
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