Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: At No. 10 Iowa State Cyclones

CINCINNATI — The road trip to Ames, Iowa is here. Cincinnati (15-9, 5-8) takes on No. 10 Iowa State (19-5, 9-4) this Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2 in the toughest contest Cincinnati's taken on this season.

The Cyclones are a wagon at home, going 12-1 this season with the only loss coming against Kansas State 80-61 a few weeks ago. They've been lights out besides that ranking seventh in the NET and 10th on KenPom, while Cincinnati is 46th in the NET and 55th on KenPom.

This ISU outing is one of four remaining Quad 1 games for a Bearcats team that needs to go at least 5-2 down the stretch to avoid needing a deep Big 12 Tournament run in pursuit of a March Madness slot.

Cincinnati is 4-3 all-time against the Cyclones and is coming off a 68-59 win over the Bearcats last season. Bart Torvik gives UC a 14% chance to win the game, with ISU projected to win 72-62.

"One of the best teams in the country," UC head coach Wes Miller said on Thursday. "It's just a great opportunity. It's what's great about this league is that throughout the course of the conference season, there's so many awesome opportunities to compete. I think they've lost one game in Ames the last two years, so one game in two years in their building. Think about the people that have come in there, so it tells you how good they are. But I think it's just a great opportunity for our team to go play against one of the best teams in the country. And in one of the best environments in the country."

Offensive Storyline: Keep It Moving, Keep It Shooting

Cincinnati has done a nice job increasing its tempo while staying efficient over its three-game win streak and they have to keep finding that balance against ISU.

The Cyclones grind opponents down late into the shot clock and boast a fantastic defense, ranking seventh in adjusted defensive rating on KenPom. Jizzle James gets a full-scale test of his great recent play on Saturday. He and Day Day Thomas cannot get bogged down in the half-court and Cincinnati's recent clean offensive sets have to get executed early.

Nine triples or more. If Cincinnati can find a way to hit that mark, they should have a decent chance of pulling the upset. ISU will pack the paint if not, but that deep ball can get them out of their game and open everything up. All of ISU's five losses this season have had their opponent hit at least nine threes, meanwhile Cincinnati is undefeated this season when it hits nine-plus threes (8-0). Sometimes, the game is simple with that equalizing shot.

That's very easy to say when facing a team as good as ISU—They allow Big 12 teams to hit just 46.2% of their two-point shots (second in the conference) and are willing to let teams take those deeper tries to limit those more efficient looks around the rim (33.6% allowed from deep, eighth in Big 12 play). Josh Reed should have another few opportunities to hit deep balls and he could be the difference again in a strong Cincinnati offensive outing.

Players like guard Tamin Lipsey (10.4 points, 2.9 assists, two steals) and 6-8 sticky forward Joshua Jefferson (12.8 points, eight rebounds, 1.8 steals) won't make it easy. Lipsey is top three in the Big 12 in steals and Jefferson owns the best defensive rating on the team (89.7 overall, ninth-best nationally).

A true defensive cyclone out of a team forcing 14.2 turnovers per game (best in Big 12 play).

Defensive Storyline: Defend The Rim, Don't Foul

The defensive end is where Cincinnati can have real hope to pull off an upset. Iowa State is a monstrously physical team that spams shots around the rim, for good reason. They are scoring a scorching 92% on dunk attempts and 67.8% on close twos and those shots make up over 43% of their shot diet.

They want to grind you down on defense and get to the rim quickly on offense. That speed can often force teams to not only get sloppy with their contests, but their hands as well, with ISU ranking 46th nationally in free throw rate this season, and second in free-throw attempts during conference play (21.4). The toughest part about it is five different ISU players average at least 2.9 free throw attempts per game.

Lead guard Curtis Jones (17.4 points, 4.2 rebounds) is a part of that group and one of two outside shooters Cincinnati will also have to limit. He pairs with the newly healthy 6-8 forward Milan Momcilovic (10.1 points, 43.9% from deep), who just returned last week from injury and adds even more dynamic structure to ISU's offense.

Cincinnati has to tighten up the ball-screen defense that Utah shredded for 32 paint points on Tuesday. If they can do that, their already strong foul discipline could help get the ball in Jizzle James' hands for close crunchtime possessions in the final minutes. UC is the best fouling team in the conference (13.9 free throws allowed, first in conference play, 14.2 fouls committed, second).

Weather the storm, hit some triples, and try to get into a close game late with a puncher's chance to pull off arguably the best win of the Wes Miller era.

Prediction: 73-71 Cyclones

Season Prediction Record: 19-5

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