Preview: Cincinnati Opens AAC Play Against Tulane

CINCINNATI — After nearly two weeks off due to the holidays and COVID-19 postponements, Cincinnati (10-3) opens up its AAC schedule with Tulane (4-6) on Saturday night.

UC faced the daunting task of traveling to No. 12 Houston on Tuesday, but injuries and COVID-19 issues caused the game's postponement. The Green Wave had issues of their own in early December due to the virus, but they are healthy now and looked it in their 85-84 upset win over Memphis to start their AAC schedule.

The Tigers were ranked heading into the season but are now 6-5 after losing on Wednesday without their top three scorers. The performance showed that there could only be one true force in the AAC this season. Tulane has the firepower to give Cincinnati issues, but the size is a big question mark, and that's not a good omen heading into Fifth Third Arena this season.

Cincinnati comes into the game ranked 76th in KenPom, while Tulane is 153rd. ESPN projects the Bearcats to win 81.6% of the time.

Jalen Cook (team-high 19.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists), Jaylen Forbes (15.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists), and Kevin Cross (14 points, team-high 5.2 rebounds, team-high 3.7 assists) make up the dynamic trio powering the Green Wave.

The entire team runs through this group with just one other player averaging over five points. Cross may be the third-leading scorer, but he's the engine of the team. The sophomore transferred from Nebraska and is playing his best basketball lately as a do-it-all playmaker.

Over the past three games, Cross averaged 16 points, seven assists, and 5.3 rebounds on 65.5% shooting. The 6-foot-8 forward has hit 3-of-8 outside attempts this season and prefers to pound teams in more efficient areas close to the basket. Cross is shooting 62.2% on two-point shots. He'll face one of the most daunting two-point defenses in the country on Saturday.

Cincinnati plays with constant energy on that end of the floor, allowing opponents to make 41.9% of their two-point atempts (14th nationally) and 27.3% of their tries from downtown (22nd). Something has to give with the latter.

Tulane's number one path to victory in this game is keeping Cook and Forbes hot from outside. The former is the highest-scoring freshman in the country this season—the deep ball has been a big factor. Cook is hitting 46.5% of his three-point shots, which would be top 20 in the country if he met the attempts threshold.

The six-foot transfer from LSU is lighting it up in New Orleans; he retained his freshman staus due to the pandemic.

A sparkplug scorer relegated to the bench last season, Cook's attempting the most shots on the team and shooting 48.5% from the floor. That percentage ranks second behind Cross among Tulane players who've taken over 25 shots this season.

Cook is a top-tier athlete and will be Cincinnati's toughest backcourt test since they faced Arkansas in the Hall of Fame Classic. His running mate in Forbes isn't as efficient (40.3% FG), but he's hit the most triples on the team (24) at a 36.9% clip.

Tulane is a great three-point shooting team on paper (36.5%, 70th) until you dive a little deeper and see that Cook and Forbes account for 108 of the Green Wave's 211 outside shots. Stifle the starting guards outside, and this offense starts to crumble due to a lack of size.

Hayden Koval, Abdul Ado, Viktor Lakhin, and the rest of the Cincinnati big-man contingent can have a massive rebounding total in this contest. Cross is Tulane's tallest rotation player, and when they aren't hitting shots on the first look, things get ugly.

The Green Wave grab 31.1 rebounds per game (342nd) and 6.9 offensive rebounds per game (340th). Ron Hunter's team doesn't have the size or depth to hold up on the glass. Wes Miller has griped throughout the non-conference schedule that UC needs to be better on the defensive glass. Tulane is the perfect opponent to tighten the screws against.

At 6-foot-8, Cross is the tallest player in Hunter's rotation by two inches, going up against the 71st ranked rebounding team in the nation (38.9 RPG). The Bearcats boast five players averaging at least four boards this season to Tulane's three. UC doesn't have a gobbler to key in on as they have smartly employed a platoon on that front.

All in all, Tulane faces a daunting size mismatch in terms of KenPom's effective height metric (average of center and power forward positions). Cincinnati ranks ninth (plus-two), while Tulane is on the other end at No. 317 (minus-1.1).

UC still can't find a consistent team-wide performance shooting the ball, but their energy on the glass helps stave off losses from that issue. If they keep the gunners from getting hot outside, UC has a great chance to win their fifth conference opener in the past six seasons.

Tip-off against Tulane is at 7 p.m. ET from Fifth Third Arena. The game is airing on ESPN+.

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