Preview: Cincinnati Travels to Sunshine State for Bout With UCF

The Bearcats are 13-4 all time against the Golden Knights.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Updated:
Feb 22, 2022 2:22 PM EST

CINCINNATI — We are entering the final two weeks of the college basketball regular season, and UC is just searching for consistency at this point. The Cincinnati Bearcats (17-10, 7-7) can start to find some on Wednesday in their first contest this season against the UCF Golden Knights (16-9, 8-7).

UC enters the matchup a half-game back of the Knights for sixth place in the AAC. The goal, at this point, is to avoid playing four games on the path to an AAC Tournament title. To do that, Cincinnati must get to fifth place. A loss to UCF will give sixth, fifth (Temple), and fourth (Tulane) the tiebreakers over Cincinnati.

UCF trails the all-time series 13-4 after splitting with the Bearcats in two contests last season. The Golden Knights rank 101st on KenPom, while Cincinnati sits at No. 91. ESPN's matchup predictor has UCF winning 68.3% of the time.

There aren't many weaknesses or strengths from this UCF team in 2021-22. Johnny Dawkins' squad plays decently on both ends and has a penchant for the three-point shot. Central Florida is 75th in three-point attempts (24.8) and 109th in outside FG% on the year (35.1%).

The attempts are creeping up since the start of conference play (25.9), and Darin Green (12.1 points in conference play, 2.7 rebounds) is the man behind a quarter of those shots.

The senior is part of a veteran guard trio guiding UCF's offense in 2021-22. In AAC play, Green is shooting team-highs in three-point attempts (7.7), and percentage (37.1%). The 6-foot-4, 180-pound gunner can get his shot off from a variety of angles.

Green is an scoring motor when he is on the floor—sporting the 10th-best offensive rating in the AAC (111.9) and a 23.6% usage rate (13th in AAC). Running Green off of the three-point line and forcing him to find open teammates is crucial as Cincinnati tries to stymie a talent with the eight-best effective FG rate in the AAC (54%).

The Golden Knights also feed off of hustle stats, just like Temple. UCF ranks 71st in offensive rebound rate (31.6%) and 49th in defensive turnover rate (21.2%).

The two leading scorers after Green have a lot to do with that mighty turnover mark. Guards Brandon Mahan (11.4 points in conference play, 4.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals) and Darius Perry (10.5 points in conference play, team-high 3.4 assists, team-high 1.7 steals) are pestering offenses plenty this season.

Mahan and Perry are tied for the best defensive rating among UCF rotation members through 15 AAC games (98.8) while slotting eighth and 10th in steal rate among all AAC players. Cincinnati is matching strength with strength in this game; both teams have veteran guards as their three leading scorers and use their backcourts to drive offensive production.

There's no secret who UC needs to slow down offensively. That trio leads UCF in three-point attempts and percentage. Forcing them to work the offense inside is key to this outing, and UC can't let Cheikh Mbacke Diong (7.6 points in conference play, 5.5 rebounds, team-high 1.1 blocks) assert his will when it does.

The 6-foot-11 forward from Dakar, Senegal, is one of just two Golden Knights rotation players checking in above 6-foot-5, and he's efficiently used that size as a senior.

Mbacke Diong is third among all AAC players with a 57.3% eFG rate and is the only player above 6-foot-9 in the top-36. That efficiency translates to rebounding and blocked shots as well. He ranks fourth among AAC players in offensive rebound rate (11.8%), 20th in defensive rebounding rate (15.8%), and sixth in block rate (7.22%).

The only Bearcat ahead of him in block rate is Abdul Ado (9.4%, second). That will be a titanic struggle down low if Ado continues seeing starter minutes. The grad transfer's college career is winding down, and with only seeding to play for Cincinnati could give a lot more minutes to Ody Oguama—who played two of his four highest minute totals this season against Memphis and Temple last week.

If Cincinnati can force UCF to play through their forwards offensively and defend the arc in the first half then they can take over that sixth seed from UCF. The Golden Knights thrive from outside though (8.9 made threes per game), and that's stinging UC of late.

The Bearcats have allowed opponents to hit eight-plus threes seven times this year; they are 2-5 in those games. A win on Wednesday starts with keeping UCF ice cold from outside. The action tips off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

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